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A Multiview-Integrated Framework for Traffic Scene Understanding Based on YOLO and LLM 基于YOLO和LLM的交通场景理解多视图集成框架
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-19 DOI: 10.1155/atr/2814128
Yixuan Zhao, Tian Ma, Zihe Wang, Ziyu Zhang, Chenxi Li, Shuai Liu, Zhiyong Cui, Mengqi Lv, Haiyang Yu, Zixi Peng

Traffic scene understanding plays a crucial role in reasoning about and predicting relationships among entities in traffic images. It focuses on analyzing behavioral interaction patterns and global semantic associations to support higher-level traffic requirements. However, few existing frameworks can achieve comprehensive scene understanding and semantic description in complex traffic environments. In particular, effective multiview semantic association modeling is still lacking. To address these challenges, we propose multiview large language model (MVLLM), which integrates YOLO-based object detection with the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs). Through prompt engineering, MVLLM utilizes the visual information extracted by YOLO to constrain the semantic space and guide the reasoning behavior, thereby enhancing the scene parsing capability. Meanwhile, we design a Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning mechanism to establish spatiotemporal associations across multiple views and to integrate their scene understanding with semantic descriptions. The framework enables intent understanding for vehicles in dynamic environments, enhancing driving safety. It also provides comprehensive semantic descriptions for traffic management agencies, supporting holistic analyses of vehicles, roads, and environmental contexts.

交通场景理解在交通图像实体间关系的推理和预测中起着至关重要的作用。它侧重于分析行为交互模式和全局语义关联,以支持更高级别的流量需求。然而,现有的框架很少能够在复杂的交通环境中实现全面的场景理解和语义描述。特别是,目前还缺乏有效的多视图语义关联建模。为了解决这些挑战,我们提出了多视图大型语言模型(MVLLM),它将基于yolo的对象检测与大型语言模型(llm)的推理能力相结合。MVLLM通过提示工程,利用YOLO提取的视觉信息约束语义空间,引导推理行为,增强场景解析能力。同时,我们设计了一个思维链(CoT)推理机制来建立跨多个视图的时空关联,并将其场景理解与语义描述相结合。该框架能够在动态环境中理解车辆的意图,从而提高驾驶安全性。它还为交通管理机构提供了全面的语义描述,支持对车辆、道路和环境上下文的整体分析。
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引用次数: 0
Trajectory Semanticization: A Method of Accompany Vehicle Discovery Inspired by Semantic Similarity 轨迹语义化:一种基于语义相似性的伴随车辆发现方法
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1155/atr/1464526
Xinpeng Xu, Junhao Li, Weiguo Wu

The study of accompanying vehicles is a hot topic in the field of intelligent transportation. Because of the multiple selectivity of the traffic path and the loss of sampling in traditional companion vehicles discovery, the method based on path similarity mining will result in the omission of the companion candidates. This paper recognizes that the upstream and downstream relevance of trajectory intentions in traffic is similar to the contextual relevance of text semantics, as inspired by the semantic similarity of texts. Simultaneously, taking into account the generalization and tolerance of semantic processing, a companion vehicle discovery method based on “trajectory semantics” similarity is proposed. First, this paper proposes a trajectory semantic vectorized representation method trajectory semantic to vector (TS2vec), which realizes the low-dimensional dense vectorization of the trajectory in the context of dynamic time slicing of the trajectory, fusion of the temporal and spatial characteristics of the trajectory, and text information. Then, based on the “trajectory pair,” this paper proposes the trajectory pair bidirectional GRU (TPBi-GRU) model. This paper constructs forward and reverse subnetworks using the trajectory pair set—which is made up of the actual trajectory and ts sampled trajectories—realizes parameter transfer and contribution during training; gains a thorough understanding of trajectory semantics; and mines the internal relationship between vehicles more effectively. Finally, given the difference in the degree of contribution of the road shape in forming the adjoint pattern, and the sensitivity of the attention mechanism to local features, the attention mechanism is used to weigh the key nodes that affect the trajectory shape in order to obtain a more accurate trajectory representation. The experimental results show that the method in this paper can discover local and overall concomitant patterns more effectively and effectively overcome the interference of multiple selectivity of traffic paths on concomitant pattern mining.

伴随车辆的研究是智能交通领域的一个热点问题。传统的道路相似度挖掘方法由于存在交通路径的多重选择性和采样损失,会导致交通路径候选车辆的遗漏。本文认识到交通中轨迹意图的上下游相关性类似于文本语义的上下文相关性,受到文本语义相似性的启发。同时,考虑到语义处理的泛化和容错性,提出了一种基于“轨迹语义”相似度的伴车发现方法。首先,本文提出了一种轨迹语义矢量化表示方法——轨迹语义到向量(TS2vec),在对轨迹进行动态时间切片、融合轨迹时空特征和文本信息的情况下,实现了轨迹的低维密集矢量化。然后,在“轨迹对”的基础上,提出了轨迹对双向GRU (TPBi-GRU)模型。利用由实际轨迹和采样轨迹组成的轨迹对集构造正向和反向子网络,实现训练过程中的参数传递和贡献;获得对轨迹语义的透彻理解;更有效地挖掘车辆之间的内在关系。最后,考虑到道路形状对伴随模式形成的贡献程度不同,以及注意机制对局部特征的敏感性,利用注意机制对影响轨迹形状的关键节点进行加权,以获得更精确的轨迹表示。实验结果表明,本文方法能够更有效地发现局部和整体的伴随模式,有效克服了交通路径多重选择性对伴随模式挖掘的干扰。
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引用次数: 0
Nonlinear and Interactive Effects of the Built Environment on Low-Carbon Travel Intentions: Evidence From Large-Scale Map Usage Data in Beijing 建筑环境对低碳出行意愿的非线性交互影响——来自北京大比照地图使用数据的证据
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1155/atr/1084122
Liyang Hu, Jianke Cheng, Weijie Chen, Hui Bi, Zhirui Ye

Understanding the relationship between travel behavior and modifiable built environment attributes is essential for promoting low-carbon urban mobility, particularly under emerging carbon peaking and neutrality targets. While previous studies have explored this relationship, limited attention has been paid to residents’ intentions for low-carbon travel modes. To address this gap, this study employs large-scale, anonymized map usage data from Beijing and applies a gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) model to examine the nonlinear and interaction effects of built environment attributes on behavioral intentions at both trip origins and destinations. The results indicate that destination road density exerts the strongest influence on low-carbon mode choices, whereas factors such as scenery density and residential density display notable threshold effects. Furthermore, strong interaction effects between residential density and living service density highlight the importance of integrated urban planning to facilitate sustainable mobility. Model validation demonstrates that the GBDT approach outperforms both random forest and multinomial logit models, achieving superior predictive accuracy (85.7%) and effectively capturing complex nonlinear relationships. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers: interventions should prioritize enhancing road network density up to 18.5 km/km2, fostering medium-density residential areas (10–35 units/km2), and integrating comprehensive living services within neighborhoods. Overall, this study contributes a reliable, data-driven evidence base to inform targeted urban transport planning and land-use management for advancing low-carbon urban development.

理解出行行为与可改变的建筑环境属性之间的关系对于促进低碳城市交通至关重要,特别是在新兴的碳峰值和中和目标下。虽然以往的研究对这种关系进行了探讨,但对居民对低碳出行方式的意愿关注有限。为了解决这一差距,本研究采用了来自北京的大规模匿名地图使用数据,并应用梯度增强决策树(GBDT)模型来研究建筑环境属性对出行出发地和目的地行为意图的非线性和交互影响。结果表明,目的地道路密度对低碳模式选择的影响最大,景观密度和居住密度等因素表现出显著的阈值效应。此外,居住密度和生活服务密度之间的强烈互动效应凸显了综合城市规划对促进可持续流动性的重要性。模型验证表明,GBDT方法优于随机森林模型和多项logit模型,实现了更高的预测精度(85.7%),并有效捕获了复杂的非线性关系。这些发现为政策制定者提供了可操作的见解:干预措施应优先考虑将道路网络密度提高到18.5 km/km2,培育中密度住宅区(10-35个单位/km2),并在社区内整合综合生活服务。总体而言,本研究为有针对性的城市交通规划和土地利用管理提供了可靠的、数据驱动的证据基础,以促进低碳城市发展。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Ticketing Strategies for Parking Compliance on University Campuses 大学校园停车合规收费策略评估
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1155/atr/9910359
Atusa Javaheri, Sai Sneha Channamallu, Sharareh Kermanshachi, Jay Michael Rosenberger, Apurva Pamidimukkala, Chen Kan, Greg Hladik

Universities play a crucial role in alleviating students’ financial burdens to ensure that the cost of education remains manageable. Parking fines, though often overlooked, contribute to these ancillary costs. While existing literature explores the monetary effects and compliance rates of digital and physical ticketing systems, a significant gap remains in understanding how these methods specifically affect university settings. This study aims to fill that gap by assessing the effectiveness of ticketing practices in reducing parking violations on university campuses, with a focus on the role of warning tickets in promoting compliance and the financial implications of transitioning from digital to physical ticketing methods. The methodology involved comprehensively analyzing 5 years of parking violation data collected from a university campus, applying chi-square and two-sample z-tests, and developing a random forest model. The results show that warning tickets significantly reduce the incidence of repeat violations, making them an effective nonpunitive strategy. Additionally, the transition from digital to physical ticketing methods led to a reduction in multiple violations and a decrease in the average cost per violator by $25. Physical tickets were found to have a stronger deterrent effect due to their immediacy and visibility. The study provides an evidence-based decision framework to help universities calibrate enforcement design choices under budget and equity constraints.

大学在减轻学生的经济负担、确保教育成本可控方面发挥着至关重要的作用。停车罚款虽然经常被忽视,但也增加了这些辅助成本。虽然现有文献探讨了数字和物理票务系统的货币效应和合规率,但在理解这些方法如何具体影响大学环境方面仍然存在重大差距。本研究旨在通过评估罚单实践在减少大学校园停车违规行为方面的有效性来填补这一空白,重点关注警告罚单在促进合规方面的作用,以及从数字到实体罚单方法过渡的财务影响。该研究方法包括综合分析从某大学校园收集的5年违规停车数据,应用卡方检验和双样本z检验,并建立随机森林模型。结果表明,警告罚单显著降低了重复违规的发生率,使其成为一种有效的非惩罚性策略。此外,从数字票务到实体票务的转变减少了多次违规行为,每位违规者的平均成本降低了25美元。实体罚单因其即时性和可见性而具有更强的威慑作用。该研究提供了一个基于证据的决策框架,以帮助大学在预算和公平约束下校准执行设计选择。
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引用次数: 0
Multiagent Path Planning With Neural Obstacle Avoidance for Autonomous Heavy Trucks 基于神经避障的自动驾驶重型卡车多智能体路径规划
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1155/atr/3196768
Yihan Liu, Rauno Heikkilä

Autonomous trucks in busy port terminals must navigate narrow aisles, tight corners, and frequent interactions with multiple vehicles while maintaining both safety and efficiency. This paper presents a hierarchical multiagent navigation framework that integrates an enhanced grid-based Theta global planner with obstacle inflation and clearance-aware costs, an artificial potential field (APF)–based local controller augmented by lightweight neural correction, and a simple coordination protocol for resolving intertruck conflicts. We evaluate the approach in a high-fidelity Unity digital twin of the Port of Oulu using two traffic scenes with three trucks executing simultaneous tasks. Experiments are repeated under identical initial conditions with independent random perturbations to capture run-to-run variability, and results are reported as the mean ± standard deviation. We compare the proposed Theta-based planner with a standard grid-based A baseline and an 8-neighborhood A variant under the same occupancy grid, obstacle inflation, and curvature constraints to isolate the impact of expanded action sets within the A framework. A greedy heuristic baseline is also included in the simpler scene, where it can complete scheduling. Across trucks, Theta achieves 43.0% lower travel time and 39.4% fewer avoidance events than A in the dense-yard scene and 59.5% lower travel time and 91.4% fewer avoidance events in the gate–yard scene, while also improving a combined tracking-accuracy index by 22.1% and 12.7%, respectively. Path-tracking evaluation shows stable mean errors (average mean lateral deviation ≈ 0.40 m and mean heading error ≈ 1.69° across trucks), with transient peaks mainly occurring at high-curvature segments, narrow-clearance passages, and interaction-driven maneuvers. We further include a time-bounded scalability study by increasing the local fleet size to assess the coordination overhead under denser intertruck interactions. These results indicate that clearance-aware any-angle planning, together with neural-tuned local avoidance and lightweight coordination, can improve both efficiency and execution quality for port–yard truck autonomy.

在繁忙的港口码头,自动驾驶卡车必须在保持安全和效率的同时,通过狭窄的通道、狭窄的角落,并与多辆车频繁互动。本文提出了一个分层的多智能体导航框架,该框架集成了一个增强的基于网格的Theta∗全局规划器,具有障碍物膨胀和间隙感知成本,一个基于人工势场(APF)的局部控制器,增强了轻量级神经校正,以及一个解决卡车间冲突的简单协调协议。我们在奥卢港的高保真Unity数字双胞胎中使用两个交通场景和三辆卡车同时执行任务来评估该方法。在具有独立随机扰动的相同初始条件下重复实验,以捕获运行到运行的可变性,结果以平均值±标准差报告。我们将提出的基于Theta∗的规划器与基于标准网格的a∗基线和相同占用网格、障碍物膨胀和曲率约束下的8邻域a∗变体进行比较,以隔离a∗框架内扩展行动集的影响。在简单的场景中还包含了一个贪婪的启发式基线,它可以完成调度。在卡车间,与A∗相比,在密集车场场景下,Theta∗的行驶时间和回避事件分别减少43.0%和39.4%;在大门车场场景下,Theta∗的行驶时间和回避事件分别减少59.5%和91.4%,同时将综合跟踪精度指数分别提高22.1%和12.7%。路径跟踪评估显示,平均误差稳定(卡车间平均横向偏差≈0.40 m,平均航向误差≈1.69°),瞬态峰值主要出现在高曲率路段、窄间隙通道和相互作用驱动的机动路段。我们还通过增加本地车队规模来进一步纳入有时间限制的可扩展性研究,以评估更密集的卡车间交互下的协调开销。结果表明,基于间隙感知的任意角度规划,结合神经调谐的局部回避和轻量化协调,可以提高港口卡车自动驾驶的效率和执行质量。
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引用次数: 0
Trajectory Planning and Tracking With Multiobjective Optimization for Connected and Automated Vehicles at Expressway On-Ramps 高速公路匝道网联自动驾驶车辆多目标轨迹规划与跟踪
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1155/atr/9412778
Zhibo Gao, Lan Yao, Jin Li, Yanduo Yin, Jian Xiang, Kejun Long

On-ramp merging is a common expressway maneuver for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), where trajectory planning and tracking control are central to avoiding collisions. However, existing studies rarely optimize the selection of merge start and end points and give limited attention to constraints from acceleration-lane length. This study proposes a structured trajectory planning and tracking method with multiobjective optimization under the CAV’s environment. First, by sampling the starting and ending points of the merging process, the quintic polynomial is used to plan the initial trajectory of the merging vehicles, and trajectory safety is checked with a collision-avoidance algorithm based on rectangular vehicle geometry. Then, a multiobjective optimization model selects the on-ramp trajectory by balancing merging urgency, driving safety, traffic efficiency, and comfort. Finally, an integrated tracking strategy combines lateral and longitudinal control: a feedforward LQR for lateral motion and a PID-based longitudinal controller. To further improve the tracking accuracy, the particle swarm algorithm tunes key parameters of the lateral LQR controller. The numerical result demonstrates that the planner can generate smooth and stable trajectories that could be selected as an optimal reference for the tracking controller. The simulation results show that when the initial speed of the on-ramp vehicle is 68 km/h, the maximum tracking errors of lateral and longitudinal displacements are less than 0.02 and 0.2 m, respectively.

入匝道合并是网联自动驾驶汽车(cav)在高速公路上常见的一种机动方式,其中轨迹规划和跟踪控制是避免碰撞的核心。然而,现有的研究很少对合并起点和终点的选择进行优化,并且对加速车道长度的约束关注有限。在CAV环境下,提出了一种多目标优化的结构化轨迹规划与跟踪方法。首先,通过对合并过程的起点和终点进行采样,利用五次多项式规划合并车辆的初始轨迹,并采用基于矩形车辆几何形状的避碰算法进行轨迹安全性检查。在此基础上,建立了多目标优化模型,综合考虑合流紧迫性、行车安全性、交通效率和舒适性等因素,选择入匝道路径。最后,综合跟踪策略结合了横向和纵向控制:横向运动的前馈LQR和基于pid的纵向控制器。为了进一步提高跟踪精度,采用粒子群算法对横向LQR控制器的关键参数进行了调整。仿真结果表明,该规划器能生成光滑稳定的轨迹,可作为跟踪控制器的最优参考。仿真结果表明,当入匝道车辆初始速度为68 km/h时,横向位移和纵向位移的最大跟踪误差分别小于0.02和0.2 m。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Performances of Electric Vehicle Batteries: A Systematic Literature Review 电动汽车电池性能分析:系统的文献综述
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1155/atr/5546290
Antonio Comi, Ippolita Idone

Electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly becoming the main mobility option, with global sales in 2023 driven predominantly by China (60%), Europe (25%) and the United States (10%). This widespread adoption has intensified demand for EV batteries, which exceeded 750 GWh in 2023, marking a 40% year-on-year increase. As EVs expand in number, battery performance and reuse emerge as pivotal challenges in the transition to sustainable mobility. This study presents a systematic literature review focussing on the performance evaluation and life prediction of EV batteries, with a primary emphasis on lithium-ion technology, which is the more common technologies. Using a bibliometric clustering approach by CiteSpace©, the review identifies key research domains and highlights critical gaps, especially the underrepresentation of real-world usage conditions in performance models. This review integrates findings across diagnostic, modelling and field-performance studies to propose a unified framework for evaluating EV battery performance under dynamic operating conditions. Findings reveal that while numerous diagnostic tools and modelling techniques exist, their applicability to dynamic operational contexts remains limited. The results aim to support future innovation in battery management systems (BMSs), second-life strategies and potentially circular economy applications, providing both a scientific foundation and practical guidance for advancing sustainable energy solutions.

电动汽车(ev)正日益成为主要的出行选择,到2023年,全球销量主要由中国(60%)、欧洲(25%)和美国(10%)推动。这种广泛采用增加了对电动汽车电池的需求,2023年超过750吉瓦时,同比增长40%。随着电动汽车数量的增加,电池性能和再利用成为向可持续移动过渡的关键挑战。本研究对电动汽车电池的性能评估和寿命预测进行了系统的文献综述,重点介绍了锂离子电池技术,这是比较常见的技术。使用CiteSpace©的文献计量聚类方法,该综述确定了关键的研究领域,并强调了关键的差距,特别是在性能模型中对现实世界使用条件的代表性不足。该综述整合了诊断、建模和现场性能研究的结果,提出了一个统一的框架,用于评估动态操作条件下的电动汽车电池性能。研究结果表明,虽然存在许多诊断工具和建模技术,但它们对动态操作环境的适用性仍然有限。研究结果旨在支持电池管理系统(bms)的未来创新、二次生命战略和潜在的循环经济应用,为推进可持续能源解决方案提供科学基础和实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
Improvement and Calibration of Driving Safety Field Model: Resolving Risk Characterization Mismatches 驾驶安全场模型的改进与标定:解决风险表征不匹配问题
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1155/atr/5573870
Yanting Hu, Shifeng Niu, Chenhao Zhao, Jianyu Song, Min Li

The driving safety field (DSF) model, which comprehensively evaluates driving risks in complex environments by integrating human–vehicle–road factors, serves as a quantitative methodology for assessing dynamic traffic risks. However, it exhibits limitations in certain scenarios where its risk characterization deviates from actual risk variations. To address the challenges, an improved driving safety field (IDSF) model is proposed. The new framework redesigns the calculation of virtual mass, field force, and driving safety index. Parameters in the model were calibrated using accident data and driving simulator experiments. Results demonstrate that the IDSF outperforms conventional time-to-collision (TTC) inverse (TTCi) and DSF models. Specifically, in car-following scenarios, IDSF demonstrates higher correlation (r≈0.9) with the TTCi model. In complex environments with high vehicular heterogeneity, compared with the DSF model, the IDSF model exhibits greater stability (80% lower coefficient of variation) and fewer extreme deviations (38% reduction). This study provides a novel theoretical framework for automotive intelligent safety technologies and offers valuable insights for designing more reasonable driving safety algorithms.

驾驶安全场(DSF)模型是综合人-车-路因素对复杂环境下的驾驶风险进行综合评价的一种定量的动态交通风险评估方法。然而,它在某些情况下表现出局限性,在这些情况下,它的风险描述偏离了实际的风险变化。为了解决这些问题,提出了一种改进的驾驶安全场(IDSF)模型。新框架重新设计了虚拟质量、场力和驾驶安全指标的计算方法。利用事故数据和驾驶模拟器实验对模型参数进行了标定。结果表明,IDSF优于传统的碰撞时间(TTC)逆(TTCi)和DSF模型。具体而言,在汽车跟随场景中,IDSF与TTCi模型具有较高的相关性(r≈0.9)。在具有高度车辆异质性的复杂环境中,与DSF模型相比,IDSF模型具有更高的稳定性(变异系数降低80%)和更少的极端偏差(减少38%)。本研究为汽车智能安全技术提供了新的理论框架,为设计更合理的驾驶安全算法提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling and Predicting the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Construction Waste Hauling Trucks Using an Input–Output Hidden Markov Approach 基于输入-输出隐马尔可夫方法的建筑垃圾运输车辆时空动力学建模与预测
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1155/atr/8896444
Xiang Liu, Boyi Lei, Hongtai Yang, Ke Han, Lee D. Han

Construction waste hauling (CWH) trucks are a significant source of air pollution and particulate emissions in urban environments, prompting strict regulatory controls and monitoring. Accurate prediction of their transportation activities, including destinations and arrival times, is critical for improving environmental management and regulatory enforcement. In this study, we present a probabilistic approach that captures the complex spatiotemporal dynamics inherent in the transportation behavior of CWH trucks using the input–output hidden Markov model (IOHMM). This model leverages contextual factors such as historical trajectories, weather conditions, and time-based patterns to make real-time predictions of transportation activities with high accuracy. The model is applied to a dataset of 1000 CWH trucks collected over a 5-month period in Chengdu, China. The model’s performance was evaluated against several baseline methods, including traditional Markov chains, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and DeepMove, an attention-based deep learning model. Results demonstrated that the IOHMM outperforms these models in both prediction accuracy and interpretability. Specifically, the IOHMM achieved an average destination prediction accuracy of 51.2%, compared to 47.9% for DeepMove, 43.1% for LSTM, and 39.4% for Markov chains. In terms of arrival time prediction, the IOHMM obtained an accuracy of 38.8%, outperforming all other models, with DeepMove at 36.8%, LSTM at 35.6%, and Markov chains at 27.5%. These findings highlight the IOHMM’s ability to effectively incorporate both spatial and temporal factors in predicting transportation dynamics, providing a powerful tool for regulatory agencies to improve real-time interventions and environmental management of heavy-duty vehicles.

建筑垃圾运输(CWH)卡车是城市环境中空气污染和颗粒物排放的重要来源,需要严格的监管和监测。准确预测它们的运输活动,包括目的地和到达时间,对于改善环境管理和监管执法至关重要。在这项研究中,我们提出了一种概率方法,利用输入-输出隐马尔可夫模型(IOHMM)捕捉CWH卡车运输行为中固有的复杂时空动态。该模型利用历史轨迹、天气条件和基于时间的模式等环境因素,对交通活动进行高精度的实时预测。该模型应用于中国成都5个月期间收集的1000辆CWH卡车的数据集。该模型的性能通过几种基准方法进行了评估,包括传统的马尔可夫链、长短期记忆(LSTM)网络和DeepMove(一种基于注意力的深度学习模型)。结果表明,IOHMM在预测精度和可解释性方面都优于这些模型。具体来说,IOHMM实现了51.2%的平均目的地预测准确率,而DeepMove为47.9%,LSTM为43.1%,马尔可夫链为39.4%。在到达时间预测方面,IOHMM获得了38.8%的准确率,优于所有其他模型,DeepMove为36.8%,LSTM为35.6%,Markov链为27.5%。这些发现突出了IOHMM在预测运输动态时有效结合空间和时间因素的能力,为监管机构提供了一个强大的工具,以改善重型车辆的实时干预和环境管理。
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引用次数: 0
Temporal Analysis of Nonmandatory Trip Frequency Using an Adaptive Multivariate Ordered Probit Model: Empirical Investigation in Shanghai, China 基于自适应多元有序概率模型的非强制性出行频率时间分析——以上海市为例
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1155/atr/3469033
Ying Liu, Xin Ye, Kun Huang

This study investigates the temporal evolution of nonmandatory trip frequencies in Shanghai over a decade using a temporally adaptive multivariate ordered probit (MOP) model. Two large-scale travel surveys are pooled, and temporal changes are captured through year dummy interaction terms, year-specific threshold shifts, and a year-specific correlation structure. Parameters are estimated using full-information maximum likelihood estimation with an analytic approximation of multivariate normal cumulative distribution. The findings reveal substantial decade-long transformations in discretionary mobility. Gender differences narrowed or reversed across several activities; the impact of aging was apparent; occupational constraints persisted; the influence of central-area residence intensified, reflecting uneven spatial development; and weekend effects weakened, indicating increasingly blurred boundaries between weekday and weekend activity patterns. Correlation patterns across activities also shifted, suggesting changes in trip chaining and time allocation. By developing a unified, temporally adaptive MOP framework capable of jointly capturing structural stability and temporal change, this study provides new empirical evidence on how nonmandatory trip adapts to rapid sociodemographic, economic, and spatial transformations. It offers rare evidence from a major megacity of developing country where activity-based modeling applications remain limited. These insights support the design of context-sensitive transportation and land-use policies.

本文采用时间自适应多元有序概率(MOP)模型研究了上海市近十年非强制性出行频率的时间演变。两个大规模的旅行调查汇集在一起,并通过年份虚拟交互项,特定年份的阈值变化和特定年份的相关结构捕获时间变化。参数估计采用全信息最大似然估计与多元正态累积分布的解析逼近。研究结果揭示了自由裁量流动性长达十年的重大转变。性别差异在若干活动中缩小或逆转;衰老的影响是明显的;职业约束依然存在;中心区住宅的影响加剧,反映出空间发展的不均衡;周末的影响减弱,表明工作日和周末活动模式之间的界限越来越模糊。活动之间的关联模式也发生了变化,这表明旅行链和时间分配发生了变化。通过开发一个统一的、具有时间适应性的MOP框架,能够共同捕捉结构稳定性和时间变化,本研究为非强制性旅行如何适应快速的社会人口、经济和空间转变提供了新的经验证据。它提供了来自发展中国家的一个主要特大城市的罕见证据,在那里基于活动的建模应用仍然有限。这些见解支持了对环境敏感的交通和土地使用政策的设计。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Advanced Transportation
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