Agriculture driven rural-to-urban migration trends among farmers impacting urban policy development in Northern India

Abstract

The agricultural migration in the Northern India was quite significant and was driven by multifaceted factors especially aftermath COVID-19 pandemic. However, only the push-pull factors of migration leaving the psychological factors of migration was explored earlier. Hence, the study was framed to address this research gap by examining migration behavior using the traditional constructs of Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). We extended the TPB framework with two additional constructs: household decision-making and engagement of women in agriculture. For extracting the latent constructs, 480 migrant farmer's data were analyzed through exploratory factor analysis and hypothesis testing using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The measurement and structural model of TPB framework have significant association between traditional and extended constructs. The finding revealed that in Northern India, migrant farmers demonstrate inter-state migration behavior. The comparison of migration behavior highlights that cities must adopt differentiated policies to address the diverse needs of seasonal, forced, and voluntary migrant farmers. For seasonal migrants, cities must focus on housing, labor rights, and access to social services (short-term policies), whereas for forced migrants, the targeted interventions for skill-building, and resilience planning to address sudden urban population surges needed (crisis management policies). While for voluntary migrants, cities must focus on inclusive urban development, infrastructure expansion, and economic integration to support sustainable urbanization (long-term policies). These finding are significant in fostering a more resilient and equitable society through sustainable rural development for human settlements and achieving Sustainable Development Goals.