Compact urban morphology and the 15-minute city: Evidence from China

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between compact urban morphology and the development of 15-minute cities in China. Using data from 291 prefecture-level districts spanning 2012 to 2018, we employ a fixed-effects model to analyze the impact of urban compactness on residents’ accessibility to essential amenities such as schools, hospitals, and parks. Urban morphology is measured using a disconnected index based on land cover data, while accessibility is calculated using population-weighted travel times and the proportion of residents with access to amenities. Our findings reveal that urban non-compact sprawl significantly impedes the realization of 15-minute cities, with a one-unit increase in urban looseness leading to a one percentage point decrease in the proportion of residents able to access all amenity types within 15 min by bicycle. The effect is particularly pronounced for healthcare facilities, while educational institutions exhibit more resilience to the disorderly expansion of urban space. The study also uncovers heterogeneous effects across cities, with more developed, coastal, and medium-sized cities experiencing stronger negative impacts from loose urban morphology. These results offer valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers in designing more accessible and sustainable cities, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions.