Predicting fire risk in colombia tropical savannas: A multi-scenario approach

Abstract

Climate change amplifies the frequency and severity of fires in tropical regions, particularly in savanna ecosystems. Amidst these changes, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of future fire risks in northern South American tropical savanna ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios. Utilizing a compounded-event framework, we not only assess but also predict fire risks in savannas under varying carbon mitigation scenarios (SSP 1–2.6, 3–7.0, 5–8.5). Our approach integrated the individual and compounded effects of eight key climatic variables to unveil the intricate dynamics of heat and drought on fire risk. A Poisson bivariate model focused on maximum temperature and accumulated precipitation robustly explained 75 % of the monthly burned area variability. We used this model to forecast fire risks from 1980 to 2100, revealing a concerning 5–8 % increase in risk during 2000–2020, with projections showing a potential 40 % surge under low mitigation scenarios. This underscores the critical need for aggressive carbon emission mitigation and effective localized fire management strategies, highlighting their vital role, even in optimistic climate scenarios.