{"title":"Nonlinear relationship between the number of children and late-life cognition","authors":"Yuting Bai , Shiko Maruyama , Si Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102417","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Late-life cognition is a growing concern as populations age. This study investigates how the number of children affects late-life cognition in rural China by exploiting the exogenous variation in the rollout timing of Family Planning Policies. Theoretical analysis suggests a nonlinear effect along the fertility dimension. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we find nonlinear causal effects of fertility. Having one more child when the mother has 4+ children leads to adverse effects on a range of late-life cognition measures, while positive effects exist for episodic memory and mental intactness at low parities, implying hump-shaped effect heterogeneity. Underlying this hump-shaped causal relationship is increased interaction with children but a greater risk of chronic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102417"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中国经济评论","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X25000756","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/4/14 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Late-life cognition is a growing concern as populations age. This study investigates how the number of children affects late-life cognition in rural China by exploiting the exogenous variation in the rollout timing of Family Planning Policies. Theoretical analysis suggests a nonlinear effect along the fertility dimension. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we find nonlinear causal effects of fertility. Having one more child when the mother has 4+ children leads to adverse effects on a range of late-life cognition measures, while positive effects exist for episodic memory and mental intactness at low parities, implying hump-shaped effect heterogeneity. Underlying this hump-shaped causal relationship is increased interaction with children but a greater risk of chronic conditions.
随着人口老龄化的加剧，晚年认知问题日益受到关注。本研究利用计划生育政策出台时间的外生变化，探讨子女数量如何影响中国农村人口的晚年认知。理论分析表明，生育率会产生非线性影响。利用中国健康与退休纵向研究（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study）的数据，我们发现了生育率的非线性因果效应。当母亲有 4 个以上孩子时，多生一个孩子会对一系列晚年认知指标产生不利影响，而在低奇数情况下，对历时记忆和精神完好性会产生积极影响，这意味着驼峰型效应异质性。这种驼峰型因果关系的基础是与子女的互动增加，但患慢性病的风险增大。
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The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.
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