Greening of Eurasia's center driven by low-latitude climate warming

Abstract

Central Asia, located in the innermost part of the Eurasian continent, has experienced “warming and humidification” in recent decades, with potentially important implications for tree growth in alpine forests, which are critical for regional water reserves. We use nested principal component analysis to assess tree radial growth patterns and reveal significant positive trends since the 20th century across Central Asian alpine forests (0.076 per decade during 1900–2021, p ​= ​0.003). Regional hydroclimatic variations affect the greening of these alpine forests, especially with extreme droughts being the most damaging. Growth acceleration is driven by low-latitude warming, which enhances regional temperatures and precipitation. The warming ocean centers alter atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to more moisture being transported to the Central Asian alpine forests, thereby increasing regional precipitation and promoting tree growth. Our model projections indicate that growth rates will continue to rise in the future. However, unprecedented warming may eventually lead to growth deterioration if negative effects, such as insufficient precipitation, occur due to breakdown signs of positive feedback mechanisms, such as moisture transport driven by low-latitude warming. Our study highlights the beneficial, but not unlimited, influences of climate warming on tree growth in Central Asian alpine forests, with implications for the sustainability of water resources. However, as urban and agricultural demands escalate, a holistic, long-term perspective is recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of temperature increases.