{"title":"Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model","authors":"Catarina Peralta , Pedro Mazeda Gil","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We address two main structural changes occurring in developed countries: the rise of automation and population ageing. Using an R&D-based growth model under an OLG framework, we consider education and fertility decisions, as well as automation in the production process, to explore the interplay between population ageing and automation. The results reveal dynamics that align with the US trends from 1970 to 2021. In particular, in response to increasing real wages, the model captures a decline in the fertility rate for low-skilled workers but an increase for high-skilled workers, consistent with observed data. We also analyze the model’s response to shocks related to automation and demographics (fertility vs. longevity), as well as policy instruments designed to reduce inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"234 ","pages":"Article 107002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001222","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/4/22 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We address two main structural changes occurring in developed countries: the rise of automation and population ageing. Using an R&D-based growth model under an OLG framework, we consider education and fertility decisions, as well as automation in the production process, to explore the interplay between population ageing and automation. The results reveal dynamics that align with the US trends from 1970 to 2021. In particular, in response to increasing real wages, the model captures a decline in the fertility rate for low-skilled workers but an increase for high-skilled workers, consistent with observed data. We also analyze the model’s response to shocks related to automation and demographics (fertility vs. longevity), as well as policy instruments designed to reduce inequality.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.
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