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Productivity losses in the transition to Daylight Saving Time: Evidence from hourly GitHub activity 夏令时过渡期的生产力损失:GitHub 每小时活动的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106749
Using data on GitHub users around the world, we estimate the effects of transitions to Daylight Saving Time on worker activity. In daily activity, transitions appear short lived—there is evidence of two days of declines before activity returns to baseline levels. However, hourly analysis reveals a transition to Daylight Saving Time that is much longer—losses appear in the early working hours of work days into a second week following the initiation of Daylight Saving Time.
利用全球 GitHub 用户的数据,我们估算了夏令时过渡对工人活动的影响。在日常活动中,过渡似乎是短暂的--有证据表明,活动量在恢复到基线水平之前会有两天的下降。然而,按小时进行的分析表明,向夏令时过渡的时间要长得多--在夏令时开始后的第二周,损失出现在工作日的早期工作时间。
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引用次数: 0
How risk aversion shapes the trade-off between commitment and flexibility 规避风险如何决定承诺与灵活性之间的权衡
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106748
We use a three-period model to explore the optimal asset transfer that a present self, aware that her near future self is present-biased but better informed, will make to protect her far future self against income shocks. The model captures the present self’s trade-off between using illiquid savings as a commitment mechanism, restricting the near future self from its consumption temptations; and giving flexibility to the near future self to adjust consumption after knowing the shock size. We adopt a class of utility functions, à la Epstein–Zin, to vary risk aversion while holding time preferences fixed. Our main result states that a more risk-averse agent would purchase more illiquid assets.
我们使用一个三期模型来探讨一个现在的自己,在意识到其不久的将来的自己是偏向现在但更知情的情况下,为保护其遥远的将来的自己免受收入冲击而进行的最优资产转移。该模型捕捉了现在的自己在使用非流动性储蓄作为承诺机制、限制不久的将来的自己的消费诱惑和给予不久的将来的自己在知道冲击大小后调整消费的灵活性之间的权衡。我们采用一类效用函数(类似于 Epstein-Zin)来改变风险厌恶程度,同时保持时间偏好不变。我们的主要结果表明,风险规避程度较高的代理人会购买更多的非流动性资产。
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引用次数: 0
Host country household spending and foreign subsidiary performance: The role of local knowledge, entry mode strategies, and the digital economy 东道国家庭支出与外国子公司业绩:当地知识、进入模式战略和数字经济的作用
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106745
Given the recent concerns about de-globalization following the pandemic, this study explores the extent to which the performance of multinational firms (specifically their foreign subsidiaries) is influenced by country-specific, sectoral, and firm-level factors, drawing on a firm-level panel of more than 130 thousand foreign subsidiaries in 99 countries. We find evidence that a rise in host country household spending (per capita) improves the financial performance of foreign subsidiaries. This suggests that host countries with growing household spending show greater market potential, enabling foreign companies to generate higher returns. In addition, this positive return is contingent on the subsidiary's local knowledge and entry mode strategies, and the positive effect is more prominent during times of uncertainties like the recent global pandemic. Furthermore, we find that this positive effect of greater household spending is conditional on the sectoral affiliation of firms, namely, digital versus non-digital sectors. As foreign companies in the digital sector are typically characterized by advanced sophisticated technologies and know-how, they tend to benefit more in countries where per capita household spending is greater. Our results support the rationale for globalization in the digitalized world.
鉴于最近对大流行病后去全球化的担忧,本研究利用 99 个国家超过 13 万家外国子公司的公司层面面板,探讨了跨国公司(特别是其外国子公司)的业绩在多大程度上受特定国家、行业和公司层面因素的影响。我们发现有证据表明,东道国家庭支出(人均)的增加会提高外国子公司的财务业绩。这表明,家庭支出增长的东道国显示出更大的市场潜力,使外国公司能够获得更高的回报。此外,这种积极回报取决于子公司的本地知识和进入模式战略,而且在不确定时期(如最近的全球大流行病),这种积极效应更为突出。此外,我们还发现,家庭支出增加所带来的积极效应取决于企业的行业归属,即数字行业与非数字行业。由于数字行业的外国公司通常拥有先进的尖端技术和专有知识,因此它们往往会在人均家庭支出较高的国家获益更多。我们的研究结果支持数字化世界中全球化的合理性。
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引用次数: 0
Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies 天然气供应剧烈冲击的经济影响和短期缓解战略
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106750
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input–output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.
俄罗斯于 2022 年 2 月 24 日入侵乌克兰,这意味着对欧盟的天然气供应可能会突然大幅减少。奥地利是最依赖俄罗斯天然气进口的国家之一,本文对奥地利突然受到天然气供应冲击的后果进行了技术经济分析。我们的分析包括:(a) 详细评估供需双方的应对措施,以缓解俄罗斯天然气进口的直接短缺;(b) 绘制工业部门天然气供应净减少的图谱,以量化直接经济冲击和总产出的预期相对减少;(c) 通过使用动态失衡投入产出模型,量化高阶经济影响。我们的研究结果表明,潜在的经济后果可能从相对温和到非常严重不等,这取决于抵消缓解措施的实施和成功与否。我们发现,确保替代天然气进口、储存管理和激励燃料转换是减轻突然停止进口所带来的不利影响的最重要的短期政策杠杆。
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引用次数: 0
Resolving lawsuits with a decisive oath: An economic analysis 用决定性的誓言解决诉讼:经济分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106746
The decisive oath is an interesting but little-known element in some legal proceedings, mostly in civil law traditions. It is different from ordinary (testimonial) oaths that are routinely administered to witnesses at trial with the aim of eliciting only truthful testimony, but which are of dubious value in achieving that end. By contrast, a decisive oath can end a lawsuit in cases where the plaintiff has no evidence. We use a simple economic model of litigation to examine the impact of the decisive oath in resolving lawsuits and the effects of religious status on the likelihoods of requesting and taking the oath. To test the implications of the model, we use data from the early nineteenth century Ottoman courts to examine the empirical relationship between the stakes of the case, religious status of defendants, and litigation outcomes. The results show that as the stakes of a case increased: (1) resolution by evidence-based trial or the oath option were both more likely than settlement; (2) the plaintiff was less likely to request an oath from non-religious defendants as the baseline, with an additional effect that was also negative and even greater for religious defendants; and (3) non-religious defendants were more likely to take the oath, with an additional effect that was negative for religious defendants, which offset or reversed the baseline positive effect. Our analysis contributes both to the theoretical literature on the economics of dispute resolution, and to the historical literature on the role of decisive oaths in resolving legal disputes, especially in Islamic societies and civil law traditions.
决定性宣誓是某些法律程序中一个有趣但鲜为人知的要素,这些法律程序大多属于大陆法系传统。它不同于普通(证词)宣誓,普通宣誓是在审判中对证人进行的例行宣誓,其目的只是为了获得真实的证词,但在实现这一目的方面却价值可疑。相比之下,在原告没有证据的情况下,决定性的宣誓可以终结诉讼。我们使用一个简单的诉讼经济模型来研究决定性宣誓对解决诉讼的影响,以及宗教地位对要求宣誓和宣誓可能性的影响。为了检验该模型的意义,我们使用了 19 世纪初奥斯曼帝国法院的数据,研究了案件的利害关系、被告的宗教地位和诉讼结果之间的经验关系。结果表明,随着案件利害关系的增加:(1) 通过基于证据的审判或宣誓选项解决问题的可能性都高于和解;(2) 原告要求非宗教被告宣誓的可能性较低,这是个基线,而对宗教被告的额外影响也是负面的,甚至更大;(3) 非宗教被告更有可能宣誓,而对宗教被告的额外影响是负面的,这抵消或逆转了基线的正面影响。我们的分析既有助于争端解决经济学的理论文献,也有助于有关决定性宣誓在解决法律争端中的作用的历史文献,尤其是在伊斯兰社会和民法传统中。
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引用次数: 0
The green bonus of tax incentives: Evidence from China 税收优惠的绿色红利:来自中国的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106740
Using a novel dataset covering over one million firm-level energy consumption entries from 2007-2016, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the causal effect of tax incentives on carbon emission intensity by exploiting China’s staggered implementation of accelerated depreciation policies for fixed assets in 2014 and 2015. We find that the accelerated depreciation policy leads to a significant 9.19% reduction in carbon emission intensity, equivalent to 0.11 tons of carbon emissions per 10,000 RMB of industrial value added. The policy effect is more pronounced for large firms, those with medium-term assets, and in regions with greater market integration and industrial agglomeration. Our firm-level analysis reveals that the policy reduces energy consumption, promotes a shift towards a cleaner energy portfolio and increases R&D investments in abatement technologies, as well as climate-friendly innovations. The above results show high consistency with verification at the aggregation level using satellite-based observations. Our findings highlight the potential of well-designed fiscal policies to contribute to global climate action efforts in developing economies.
我们使用一个涵盖 2007-2016 年间 100 多万企业能耗数据的新数据集,利用中国在 2014 年和 2015 年交错实施的固定资产加速折旧政策,采用差分法估算了税收优惠政策对碳排放强度的因果效应。我们发现,加速折旧政策使碳排放强度显著降低了 9.19%,相当于每万元工业增加值减少 0.11 吨碳排放。该政策对大型企业、拥有中期资产的企业以及市场一体化和产业集聚程度较高的地区的影响更为明显。我们的企业层面分析表明,该政策降低了能源消耗,促进了向清洁能源组合的转变,增加了对减排技术和气候友好型创新的研发投资。上述结果与利用卫星观测进行的综合验证结果高度一致。我们的研究结果凸显了精心设计的财政政策在促进发展中经济体全球气候行动方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Opposition to markets: Experimental evidence 反对市场:实验证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106743
We experimentally investigate reasons for opposing market institutions. The experiment shows that opposition to implementing market institutions varies by background characteristics and shows that distributional concerns are a reason for opposing trade institutions. We find no evidence that the opposition to trade is due to risk preferences or paternalistic motives. A main driver of the opposition to trade is the information about background conditions: veils of uncertainty increase the support for the trade institution.
我们通过实验研究了反对市场体制的原因。实验结果表明,不同背景特征的人反对实施市场体制的程度不同,并表明分配问题是反对贸易体制的一个原因。我们没有发现反对贸易的原因是风险偏好或家长式动机的证据。反对贸易的一个主要驱动因素是有关背景条件的信息:不确定性的面纱增加了对贸易体制的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Gender, socioeconomic status, and numeracy test scores 性别、社会经济地位和算术测试成绩
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106751
We study the interrelationship between the gender gap in numeracy and socioeconomic status (SES) based on household income, parental education, and labor force status. A composite measure of SES confirms the well-established fact that boys from lower SES are more disadvantaged. In contrast, we find that separately the three aspects of higher SES interact uniquely with gender to drive differential outcomes in numeracy for girls and boys. Income and mother’s role in particular, are important drivers of the gender gap at the extremes of the income distribution. Mother’s education and labor force participation is associated with increasingly higher test scores for girls across the income distribution, thus leading to a double disadvantage for poor girls. But the gender gap does not disappear at the top of the income distribution, as for boys, test scores increase with stay-at-home mothers. In high-income households boys benefit from a traditional household structure; while in low-income households, the gap is driven by girls having worse numeracy scores in the traditional household structure.
我们研究了计算能力的性别差距与基于家庭收入、父母教育程度和劳动力状况的社会经济地位(SES)之间的相互关系。社会经济地位的综合衡量标准证实了一个公认的事实,即社会经济地位较低的男孩处于更不利的地位。与此相反,我们发现,较高的社会经济地位的三个方面分别与性别产生独特的相互作用,从而导致女孩和男孩在算术方面的不同结果。收入和母亲的角色尤其是收入分布极端地区性别差距的重要驱动因素。在整个收入分布中,母亲的教育程度和劳动力参与程度与女孩越来越高的考试分数相关,从而导致贫困女孩的双重劣势。但是,在收入分布的顶端,性别差距并没有消失,因为对于男孩来说,考试成绩会随着留守母亲的增加而提高。在高收入家庭中,男孩受益于传统的家庭结构;而在低收入家庭中,这种差距是由于女孩在传统家庭结构中的算术成绩较差造成的。
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引用次数: 0
Miner competition and transaction fees 矿工竞争和交易费用
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106736
In order to maintain the function of a decentralized financial system like Bitcoin, transaction fees are offered to engage miners in the transaction confirmation process. This paper investigates the effect of miner competition on the equilibrium transaction fees. We develop a game-theoretic model with costly entry into mining activities. We find that miners may strategically assemble fewer transactions into a block to reduce total fees, and as a result, to deter entry. Equilibrium transaction fees also depend on block rewards as a rise in total fees is accompanied by a drop in rewards. Our empirical analysis supports the model’s predictions. We provide evidence on the existence of excess capacity in a block, taking into account the random confirmation process. The empirical findings demonstrate that heightened competition tends to increase the block size and total fees. Furthermore, the halving of rewards correlates to a fee hike.
为了维持像比特币这样的去中心化金融系统的功能,在交易确认过程中会向矿工收取交易费。本文研究了矿工竞争对均衡交易费的影响。我们建立了一个博弈论模型,其中包含了进入挖矿活动的成本。我们发现,矿工可能会战略性地将较少的交易集合到一个区块中,以降低总费用,从而阻止交易进入。均衡交易费用还取决于区块奖励,因为总费用的增加伴随着奖励的减少。我们的实证分析支持模型的预测。考虑到随机确认过程,我们提供了区块中存在产能过剩的证据。实证结果表明,竞争的加剧往往会增加区块的规模和总费用。此外,奖励减半与费用上涨相关。
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引用次数: 0
Are politicians more generous? Evidence from charitable giving 政治家更慷慨吗?来自慈善捐赠的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106742

This paper analyzes the relationship between charitable giving and political candidacy. It uses individual-level Norwegian register data, which is combined with data on the universe of candidates running for local elections (2003–2021). These data include information on tax-deductible donations to approved organizations. Existing and new evidence suggest these gifts are a valid marker of pro-social preferences, with charitable contributors also displaying a positive correlation with competence. The average politician is more generous than the general population both before, during, and after their election to public office. An event study indicates that while contributions remain predominantly stable; they increase modestly when candidates are standing for election and decrease afterward.

本文分析了慈善捐赠与政治参选之间的关系。本文使用了挪威个人层面的登记数据,并将其与地方选举(2003-2021 年)候选人的整体数据相结合。这些数据包括向经批准的组织进行免税捐赠的信息。现有证据和新证据表明,这些捐赠是亲社会偏好的有效标志,慈善捐赠者的能力也与之呈正相关。一般政治家在当选公职之前、期间和之后都比普通人更加慷慨。一项事件研究表明,虽然捐款主要保持稳定,但在候选人参选时,捐款会略有增加,而在参选后则会减少。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
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