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State-dependent impulse responses in agent-based models: A new methodology and an economic application 基于代理的模型中与状态有关的脉冲响应:新方法和经济应用
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106811
Marco Amendola , Marcelo C. Pereira
The paper delves into the potential of Agent-Based Models (ABM) in analysing phenomena characterized by the non-linear propagation of shocks and system dynamics. Recognizing that state dependency can naturally emerge in complex evolving systems, we present a new methodological framework to evaluate state-dependent (or non-linear) impulse response functions in an ABM setting. Inspired by threshold time series modelling approaches, we propose analysing state-dependent impulse responses by creating alternative controlled states of the system, from which randomized impulse responses can be computed. Furthermore, a data-driven, machine-learning algorithm is proposed to endogenously identify relevant system states for the observed response. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such an approach is advanced. An R library implementing all the required methods is also offered to ensure applicability in diverse fields. Finally, the methodology is applied in economics to test for monetary policy shocks in a reference macro ABM, highlighting its effectiveness in mapping the system impulse response to the identified key state variables, as well as showing the importance of state dependence for policy design and systematic identification of critical system states.
本文深入探讨了基于代理的模型(ABM)在分析以冲击的非线性传播和系统动态为特征的现象方面的潜力。我们认识到,在复杂的演化系统中会自然而然地出现状态依赖性,因此提出了一种新的方法论框架,用于评估 ABM 环境中的状态依赖性(或非线性)脉冲响应函数。受阈值时间序列建模方法的启发,我们建议通过创建系统的替代受控状态来分析与状态相关的脉冲响应,并从中计算出随机脉冲响应。此外,我们还提出了一种数据驱动的机器学习算法,用于内生识别观测到的响应的相关系统状态。据我们所知,这是首次提出这种方法。此外,还提供了一个实现所有必要方法的 R 库,以确保在不同领域的适用性。最后,我们将该方法应用于经济学,以测试参考宏观 ABM 中的货币政策冲击,突出了该方法在将系统脉冲响应映射到已识别的关键状态变量方面的有效性,并显示了状态依赖性对于政策设计和系统识别关键系统状态的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
How to increase and sustain cooperation in public goods games: Conditional commitments via a mediator 如何在公共产品博弈中增加并维持合作:通过调解人做出有条件承诺
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106789
Mehmet Y. Gürdal , Özgür Gürerk , Yeliz Kaçamak , Edip Kart
Conditional commitment devices, such as price-matching guarantees, legal agreements, and smart contracts, can significantly enhance cooperation and improve outcomes in various scenarios. Despite their potential, empirical evidence of their effectiveness in the context of public goods is limited. This paper addresses this gap by demonstrating that conditional and binding commitments can indeed increase voluntary contributions to public goods. We begin by theoretically analyzing the impact of conditional commitments managed by a mediator on public good contributions. Our analysis shows that conditional commitments can be structured to achieve a Pareto Optimal Nash Equilibrium (PONE). We then validate our theoretical findings with laboratory experiments. The results reveal that when a PONE exists, nearly all participant groups adopt conditional commitments and achieve high levels of sustained cooperation. Conversely, when conditional commitments lead to socially inefficient outcomes, their use declines and cooperation levels drop significantly.
价格匹配保证、法律协议和智能合约等有条件承诺工具可以在各种情况下大大加强合作并改善结果。尽管它们具有潜力,但在公共产品方面的实证证据却很有限。本文通过证明有条件和有约束力的承诺确实可以增加对公共产品的自愿贡献,弥补了这一空白。我们首先从理论上分析了由调解人管理的有条件承诺对公益捐助的影响。我们的分析表明,有条件承诺的结构可以实现帕累托最优纳什均衡(PONE)。然后,我们用实验室实验验证了我们的理论发现。结果表明,当 PONE 存在时,几乎所有参与群体都会采用有条件承诺,并实现高水平的持续合作。相反,当条件承诺导致社会效率低下时,条件承诺的使用就会减少,合作水平也会显著下降。
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引用次数: 0
Does provincial gambling culture affect corporate innovation? Evidence from China 省级赌博文化会影响企业创新吗?来自中国的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106810
Jing Hao , Yue Lu , Jing Zhang , Hengyu Bai , Ji  (George) Wu
We examine the impact of provincial gambling culture on the local firms’ R&D expenditure. We find that local gambling culture, measured by the regional lottery sales revenue per capita, promotes local firms’ R&D expenditure. Further tests show that provincial gambling culture produces more innovation outcomes and results in high innovation quality in the long run. Our result is robust to endogeneity corrections using the instrumental variable and PSM-DiD approaches and controlling for firm fixed effects. The mechanism tests reveal that our main finding works through two channels to increase local firms’ risk-taking: hiring young CEOs and using more equity. In addition, we rule out the impact of neighbouring regional gambling culture on the local firms’ R&D investments by using geographic RDD analysis. Finally, our results are more pronounced for firms in provinces with high levels of social trustworthiness, more young ageing populations, and non-SOEs.
我们研究了省级赌博文化对本地企业研发支出的影响。我们发现,以人均地区彩票销售收入为衡量标准的地方赌博文化促进了地方企业的研发支出。进一步的检验表明,省级赌博文化会产生更多的创新成果,并在长期内带来较高的创新质量。使用工具变量和 PSM-DiD 方法进行内生性修正,并控制企业固定效应,我们的结果是稳健的。机制检验表明,我们的主要发现通过两个渠道提高了本地企业的风险承担能力:聘用年轻的首席执行官和使用更多股权。此外,我们通过地域 RDD 分析排除了邻近地区赌博文化对本地企业研发投资的影响。最后,对于社会信任度高、人口老龄化程度较高以及非国有企业较多的省份,我们的研究结果更为显著。
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引用次数: 0
Belief diversity and cooperation 信仰多样性与合作
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106815
Georgy Lukyanov , David Li
This paper studies a two-player game in which the players face uncertainty regarding the nature of their partner. In this variation of the standard Prisoner’s Dilemma, players may encounter an ‘honest’ type who always cooperates. Mistreating such a player imposes a moral cost on the defector. This situation creates a trade-off, resolved in favor of cooperation if the player’s trust level, or belief in their partner’s honesty, is sufficiently high. We investigate whether an environment where players have explicit beliefs about each other’s honesty is more or less conducive to cooperation, compared to a scenario where players are entirely uncertain about their partner’s beliefs. We establish that belief diversity hampers cooperation in environments where the level of trust is relatively low and boosts cooperation in environments with a high level of trust.
本文研究的是一种双人博弈,在这种博弈中,博弈者面临着对手性质的不确定性。在这个标准囚徒困境的变种中,博弈者可能会遇到一个总是合作的 "诚实型 "博弈者。虐待这样的玩家会让叛逃者付出道德代价。这种情况会产生一种权衡,如果玩家的信任度或对其伙伴诚实的信任度足够高,就会有利于合作。我们研究了与完全不确定对方信念的情况相比,玩家明确相信对方诚实的环境是更有利于合作还是更不利于合作。我们发现,在信任度相对较低的环境中,信念多样性会阻碍合作,而在信任度较高的环境中,信念多样性会促进合作。
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引用次数: 0
Does family culture hamper corporate deceptive green behavior decision-making? 家庭文化是否会阻碍企业欺骗性绿色行为的决策?
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106812
Dongyang Zhang , Yichen Guo , Samuel A. Vigne
Different categories of cultural traits have acknowledged that culture matters for a multiplicity of decisions made regarding economic outcomes. In response to the increasing awareness of cultural traits and their relationship to corporate sustainable behavior, this paper focused on one specific aspect of the relevance of culture: the association of family culture to green behaviors. This paper explored the nexus between family culture, the deceptive behavior of greenwashing, and firm performance in China, which provided original evidence that family culture firms have a significantly lower likelihood in participating in deceptive green behaviors as measured by greenwashing. By collecting the listed Chinese firms during 2011 to 2021, we estimated empirical models and drew a variety of conclusions accordingly. First, family culture firms have a negative and significant impact on greenwashing behaviors, leading to a decline in deceptive green production decision-making. Second, we further provided mechanisms which hamper family firms’ greenwashing behaviors into two perspectives: financial constraint and agency cost between shareholders and family managers. We recognized that financial constraints motivate family culture firms to greenwash, whereas the low agency cost related to family culture discourages family firms from greenwashing decision-making. Third, we provide very rich dimensions in discussion of heterogeneous effects. Specifically, within the internal family culture structure heterogeneities, family managers without overseas backgrounds, no generational or descendant involvement, and high family-controlled firms are even less involved in greenwashing decision-making. Moreover, with respect to external heterogeneities, family culture in pollution-intensive industries, highly regulated environmental firms, and Confucian social culture intensive regions, can significantly reduce greenwashing behaviors.
不同类别的文化特质都承认,文化对有关经济成果的多种决策至关重要。随着人们对文化特质及其与企业可持续行为之间关系的认识不断提高,本文重点关注文化相关性的一个具体方面:家庭文化与绿色行为之间的关联。本文探讨了中国家族文化、"洗绿 "这一欺骗行为与企业绩效之间的关系,并提供了原始证据,证明家族文化企业参与 "洗绿 "这一欺骗性绿色行为的可能性显著较低。通过收集 2011 年至 2021 年期间上市的中国企业,我们对实证模型进行了估计,并得出了各种相应的结论。首先,家族文化企业对绿色洗涤行为有显著的负面影响,导致欺骗性绿色生产决策的下降。其次,我们进一步从财务约束和股东与家族管理者之间的代理成本两个角度提供了阻碍家族企业 "洗绿 "行为的机制。我们认识到,财务约束会促使家族文化企业进行 "洗绿",而与家族文化相关的低代理成本则会阻碍家族企业的 "洗绿 "决策。第三,我们在讨论异质性效应时提供了非常丰富的维度。具体而言,在内部家族文化结构异质性中,无海外背景、无代际或后代参与的家族经理人,以及家族控制程度高的企业更少参与洗绿决策。此外,在外部异质性方面,污染密集型产业、高管制环保企业和儒家社会文化密集型地区的家族文化会显著减少洗绿行为。
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引用次数: 0
Patient preferences and physician availability based on physician nativity and international medical school attendance 根据医生的原籍和国际医学院就读情况确定患者的偏好和医生的可用性
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106813
Brigham Walker , Janna Wisniewski , Sarah Tinkler , Miron Stano , Rajiv Sharma
Roughly a quarter of physicians in the United States are either international medical graduates (IMGs) or foreign-born physicians (FBPs). We propose a theoretical model where patient preferences that disfavor IMGs/FBPs may result in these physicians offering better access to their services compared with non-IMGs/FBPs in equilibrium. We use data from two field experiments to test the predictions from the model: one concerning patient preferences and the other concerning physician availability. In the patient preferences field experiment, we find that patients strongly prefer physicians educated in the United States to IMGs by more than 2-to-1. In the physician availability field experiment, we find that US-born physicians generally have lower levels of availability including offering fewer appointments and longer wait times. These results may indicate a substantial underutilization of FBPs relative to US-born physicians and suggest that greater acceptance of IMGs/FBPs will improve access to healthcare in a system that is constrained by supply shortages.
美国约有四分之一的医生是国际医学毕业生(IMGs)或外国出生的医生(FBPs)。我们提出了一个理论模型,在该模型中,患者对 IMGs/FBPs 的偏好可能会导致这些医生与非 IMGs/FBPs 相比在均衡状态下提供更好的服务。我们使用两个现场实验的数据来检验模型的预测结果:一个涉及患者偏好,另一个涉及医生可用性。在患者偏好现场实验中,我们发现患者强烈偏好在美国接受教育的医生,而不是 IMG,两者之间的比例超过 2:1。在医生可用性现场实验中,我们发现在美国出生的医生的可用性水平普遍较低,包括提供较少的预约和较长的等待时间。这些结果可能表明,与美国出生的医生相比,美国出生的外籍医生的利用率严重不足,这也表明,在一个受供应短缺制约的医疗系统中,更多地接受 IMGs/外籍医生将改善医疗服务的可及性。
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引用次数: 0
Unintended consequences of maternity leave entitlements on female labor market outcomes in China 产假待遇对中国女性劳动力市场结果的意外影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106782
Hong Liu , Jiaying Li , Hong Song , Xianqiang Zou
This study provides the first empirical evidence of the impact of maternity leave entitlements on labor market outcomes for women of childbearing age in urban China. We exploit a reform during which approximately two-thirds of the provinces in China extended their leave entitlements from 2014 to 2016 and employ a triple-difference strategy to deal with the identification. The results suggest unintended effects, as leave entitlement extensions led to a reduction in the likelihood of working, formal employment, and wage for women of childbearing age relative to their counterparts. We further establish that greater reliance on employer liability may be the main mechanism behind the unintended effects, highlighting the importance of payment schemes. This study provides novel evidence and mechanisms for the labor market effect of maternity leave in women of childbearing age and provides new insights for maternity leave related policy designs.
本研究首次提供了产假待遇对中国城市育龄妇女劳动力市场结果影响的实证证据。在 2014 年至 2016 年期间,中国约有三分之二的省份延长了产假待遇,我们利用了这一改革,并采用了三重差分策略来处理识别问题。结果表明,由于休假待遇的延长导致育龄妇女的工作可能性、正规就业率和工资水平相对于同龄妇女有所下降,从而产生了意想不到的效果。我们进一步证实,对雇主责任的更大依赖可能是意外效应背后的主要机制,这凸显了支付计划的重要性。本研究为育龄妇女产假的劳动力市场效应提供了新的证据和机制,并为产假相关政策设计提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of fundamentalism on human capital, women's social status and demographics: Evidence from Islamic state of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Iraq 原教旨主义对人力资本、妇女社会地位和人口统计的影响:伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国(ISIS)在伊拉克的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106785
Seung-hun Chung
I analyze the impact of the religious fundamentalists’ rule on regional human capital development and women's social status by exploiting the unexpected rise and fall of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northwestern Iraq (2014∼2017). I find a large downward impact of exposure to ISIS rule on female human capital and an upward one on fertility rate for women who were school-aged at the time of ISIS occupation. These women express more patriarchal family norms and are more likely to belong to a polygamous union, implying a decline in women's social status. This decline in human capital and the rise of patriarchal family norms doesn't cause a significant negative impact on the development of their pre-school-aged children, possibly implying that these women didn't decrease parenting effort for their children. In summary, even a brief period of extremist rule has potentially large impacts on human capital development and culture.
我利用伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国(ISIS)在伊拉克西北部出人意料的兴衰(2014∼2017 年),分析了宗教原教旨主义者的统治对地区人力资本发展和妇女社会地位的影响。我发现,对于 ISIS 占领时处于学龄期的女性而言,ISIS 的统治对女性人力资本的影响大幅下降,对生育率的影响则大幅上升。这些妇女表达了更多的父权制家庭规范,更有可能属于一夫多妻制,这意味着妇女社会地位的下降。人力资本的下降和父权制家庭规范的上升并没有对她们学龄前子女的成长造成显著的负面影响,这可能意味着这些妇女并没有减少养育子女的努力。总之,即使是短暂的极端主义统治时期也会对人力资本发展和文化产生潜在的巨大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Conflict, institutions, and economic behavior: Legacies of the Cambodian genocide 冲突、制度和经济行为:柬埔寨种族灭绝的遗产
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106790
Katsuo Kogure , Yoshito Takasaki
This paper explores whether the Cambodian genocide under the Pol Pot regime (1975–1979) altered people’s post-conflict behaviors through institutional changes. We compare couples who had their first child during and right after the Pol Pot era. These two couples had distinct institutional experiences: The former were controlled as family organizations – state-owned spouses and children – and the latter were not. Combining spatial genocide data and the complete count Population Census microdata, we find adverse impacts of the genocide on parents’ subsequent investments in children’s education only for the former couples. We provide suggestive evidence that this can be because people were persistently susceptible to fear of violence depending on their experiences of the institutions.
本文探讨了波尔布特政权统治下的柬埔寨种族灭绝(1975-1979 年)是否通过制度变革改变了人们的冲突后行为。我们比较了在波尔布特时期和波尔布特时期之后生育第一个孩子的夫妇。这两对夫妇有着截然不同的制度经历:前者作为家庭组织--国有配偶和子女--受到控制,而后者则没有。结合种族灭绝的空间数据和完整的人口普查微观数据,我们发现种族灭绝对父母后续子女教育投资的不利影响只存在于前者夫妇中。我们提供的提示性证据表明,这可能是因为人们因其在机构中的经历不同而持续容易受到暴力恐惧的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Springing forward and falling back on health: The effects of daylight saving time on acute myocardial infarction 健康的春天来了又走了:夏令时对急性心肌梗死的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106791
Shinsuke Tanaka , Hideto Koizumi
Daylight Saving Time (DST) is a common energy policy worldwide. We examine the effects of DST on the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) over three distinct time frames: short, medium, and long run. By exploiting the unique circumstances in Indiana, our findings highlight a substantial 27.2% increase in AMI admissions at the spring transition, which lasts for approximately two weeks, is not offset by counteractive reductions during the DST period, and occurs at each transition over the years studied, indicating little adaptation to time adjustments. Conversely, we find no similar effects at the autumn transitions. Together, these findings contribute to the ongoing policy debate by providing evidence of the short-term costs of time adjustments, without offering any discernible health benefits associated with the adoption of permanent DST.
夏令时(DST)是全球通用的能源政策。我们研究了夏令时在短期、中期和长期三个不同时间段内对急性心肌梗死(AMI)发病率的影响。通过利用印第安纳州的独特情况,我们的研究结果表明,在春季转换期,急性心肌梗塞的发病率大幅增加了 27.2%,这种情况持续了大约两周,在 DST 期间并没有被反作用的减少所抵消,而且在研究的几年中,每次转换期都会出现这种情况,这表明对时间调整的适应性很小。相反,我们在秋季转换期没有发现类似的影响。总之,这些研究结果为正在进行的政策辩论提供了证据,证明了时间调整的短期成本,而没有提供与采用永久性夏令时相关的任何明显的健康益处。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
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