Trends and Disparities in the Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease due to Type 2 Diabetes in China From 1990 to 2021: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background

This study analyzes the trends in the burden of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) in China from 1990 to 2021, evaluates variations in risk factors, and projects the disease burden through 2036.

Method

Estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CKD-T2D were retrieved along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess burden trends from 1990 to 2021, identify risk factor population attributable fractions (PAFs), and project the burden through 2036.

Results

In 2021, there were 20 911 520 CKD-T2D cases in China, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 1053.92 per 100 000, an incidence rate (ASIR) of 23.07, an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 5.72, and an age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of 122.15. Although the overall burden showed a slow decline from 1990 to 2021, incidence continued to rise. The 2021 data revealed a marked age effect, with the burden rising with age. Period effects also contributed to an increased risk, with metabolic risk factors such as high fasting plasma glucose and BMI contributing the most. Projections suggest a decline in mortality and DALYs by 2036, while incidence will keep increasing.

Conclusion

Despite declines in ASMR and ASDR, CKD-T2D incidence and cases continue to rise, especially among males and the elderly. This increasing burden is driven by aging and metabolic risk factors. Early screening, education, and risk management are essential for addressing CKD-T2D in China.