The deeper roots of human capital formation and economic development in Southeast Asia, 1900–2000

Abstract

Since 1970, Southeast Asia’s per capita GDP grew seven-fold and headcount poverty rates declined from ca. 70 to 5%. This paper explores the 20th century schooling revolution as one of the deeper roots of this major leap in human prosperity. Using micro-data on the educational attainment and migration status of ca. 123 million individuals, subdivided across 277 provinces in eight Southeast Asian countries, we establish a strong and significant relationship between early educational attainment and sub-national economic development at the start of the 21st century. Using a wide range of historical and geographic controls, we find that higher education shares are more strongly associated with regional development outcomes than mass education. We also find a strong and robust contribution of inter-regional and international migration to human capital accumulation and long-term development.