Assessing the potential and complementary characteristics of China's solar and wind energy under climate change

Abstract

Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy potential is crucial for Chinese government to formulate reasonable renewable energy development plans. This study examines the impact of climate change on China's renewable photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy potential. Using meteorological data from 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), the study analyzes spatial distributions and complementary characteristics of wind and solar energy. Key findings include: 1) Under low-emission scenarios, PV potential steadily increases, while wind power density (WPD) slightly declines. In high-emission scenarios, both PV and WPD decrease by the end of the century. 2) Climate change affects regional trends. PV potential is higher in the west and north, and WPD is higher in the southeast. The southeastern region will see significant growth in wind and solar energy potential, while the western and northern regions will experience declines. 3) Wind-solar complementarity is stronger at the seasonal scale than the monthly scale, and climate change weakens this complementarity. 4) The study suggests that uncertainty in renewable energy potential poses risks to the power system, emphasizing the need for investments in multi-energy integration, energy storage, and region-specific strategies.