Decoding the formation mechanisms of rural settlements expansion patterns in transitional China

Abstract

In recent decades, the rural settlements (RSs) in China have experienced a remarkable process of differentiation and restructuring during the stages of urban expansion, urban transformation, and coordinated urban-rural development. As an important part of urban-rural integrated development, the quantitative transformation and landscape dynamics of RSs are crucial for optimizing RSs and implementing the national rural revitalization strategy. However, there is still a lack of research on the characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms of landscape patterns of RSs in China. To fill the gap, this study employed land use datasets from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the formation mechanisms of the landscape pattern for RSs in China, utilizing multiple statistical analysis models. The findings revealed a gradual increase in RSs, predominantly resulting from the conversion of cultivated land. During the study period, the overall landscape pattern indices for RSs exhibited an overall increasing trend. The regions exhibiting the high values of patch density and percentage of landscape were predominantly situated within the Huang-Huai-Hai plain. The regions exhibiting the high values of the landscape shape index were primarily concentrated in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain and the Northeast China plain. The counties exhibiting a low agglomeration index were predominantly situated in the middle-lower Yangtze plain. Hotspot analysis revealed that RSs in Huang-Huai-Hai plain exhibited a more pronounced trend of fragmentation during the study period. The Geodetector model revealed that nighttime lighting, land use intensity, slope, elevation, population density, and precipitation were the determining factors in the formation of RSs. Geographically weighted regression model demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of these factors. This study contributed to the formulation of settlement development strategies, the optimization of RSs layouts, and the promotion of rural revitalization.