Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for rail commuting in metropolitan areas in Japan

Abstract

Urban rail demand had declined significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the decrease of commuting demand has not recovered after COVID-19 in both Tokyo and Osaka, economically the largest and the second largest metropolitan areas in Japan, and two of the most rail-dependent areas for commuting in the world. We found that the decrease of urban rail demand for business commuting is strongly linked to the increase in WFH (work from home), and WFH would exist as a working style option after the COVID-19 pandemic ended. Our own questionnaire survey suggests that the longer the commuting distance is, the more the workers WFH. Some commuters using public transport shifted their commuting mode to private transport due to the pandemic, however, the longer the commuting distance is, the more difficult it is for workers to shift their commuting mode from rail to other modes. Additionally, workers were generally paid a commuting allowance by their employers in Japan. However, we found a correlation between the increase in WFH and changes in commuting allowance payment rules.