Scaling up green hydrogen in China: Economic opportunities and challenges

Abstract

The transition toward a low-carbon energy system has placed green hydrogen at the forefront of China's decarbonization agenda; however, scaling up its production and integration remains constrained by economic, infrastructural, and policy-related challenges. This study aims to evaluate the economic opportunities and structural barriers associated with the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen in China, with a focus on the period from 2025 to 2040. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model tailored to China's regional energy economy, the research assesses the potential impacts of hydrogen expansion under varying renewable energy cost scenarios and carbon pricing regimes. The analysis reveals that (1) green hydrogen can reduce industrial sector emissions by up to 38 % in high-adoption scenarios; (2) regions with abundant solar and wind capacity, particularly Inner Mongolia and Gansu, emerge as cost-competitive production hubs; (3) national GDP sees a marginal net gain of 0.4 % by 2040 under integrated policy support; and (4) carbon pricing significantly improves the competitiveness of hydrogen over fossil-based alternatives. The findings suggest that coordinated fiscal incentives, infrastructure investments, and market reforms are essential to unlock the full potential of green hydrogen in China's energy transition.