Constraints on the Projected Tropical SST Response to Greenhouse Warming by the Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI:10.1029/2025GL114656

Yu-Fan Geng, Fengfei Song, Lu Dong, Fengyun Luo

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Abstract

The future tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes profoundly impact global and regional climate. Under greenhouse warming, the reduction of Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) acts as an extratropical energy perturbation, exerting a substantial influence on the spatial distribution of tropical SST change. This study reveals a strong correlation between the current Antarctic SIC and tropical SST change, especially the interhemispheric asymmetry and El Niño-like pattern under greenhouse warming among CMIP6 models. Considering the commonly underestimated Antarctic SIC in CMIP6 models, this study applies an emergent constraint on the projected tropical SST response to greenhouse warming using the observed Antarctic SIC. The interhemispheric asymmetry in projected tropical SST warming can be markedly diminished in the multi-model ensemble mean, with a 30% reduction in the intermodel uncertainty. The spatial constraints on the projected tropical Pacific SST change produce a more pronounced and westward-extended El Niño-like warming pattern.

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观测到的南极海冰浓度对预估热带海温对温室变暖响应的约束

未来热带海温的变化将深刻影响全球和区域气候。在温室增温条件下，南极海冰浓度的减少作为一种温带能量扰动，对热带海温变化的空间分布具有重要影响。本研究揭示了当前南极SIC与热带海温变化的强相关性，特别是CMIP6模式在温室增温下的半球不对称和El Niño-like型。考虑到CMIP6模式中普遍低估的南极SIC，本研究利用观测到的南极SIC对热带海温对温室变暖的响应进行了紧急约束。预估热带海温变暖的半球间不对称性在多模式总体平均中可显著减弱，模式间不确定性降低30%。预估的热带太平洋海温变化的空间约束产生了一个更明显的向西扩展的El Niño-like变暖型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.