AIDS and severe HIV disease: combined predictions for the United Kingdom to 1999.

Abstract

The number of HIV infections prevalent in the United Kingdom (UK) at the end of 1994 have been estimated. Estimates of the future annual incidence and prevalence of AIDS and severe HIV disease have been calculated for the UK by combining recently published projections for Scotland with projections produced for England and Wales adjusted to account for Northern Ireland. The number of HIV infections prevalent in the UK at the end of 1994 was estimated to be about 23,000, 36% of them undiagnosed. It was estimated that 52% of prevalent infections were in homo/bisexual men, and 32% were in people exposed through heterosexual intercourse. Between 2100 and 2190 new cases of AIDS are expected to be reported in the UK each year from 1995 to 1999. It is predicted that a 30% rise in the number of cases exposed through heterosexual intercourse and a 17% rise in cases who inject drugs will be balanced by a 7% fall in cases among homo/bisexual men. Prevalent AIDS cases in the UK are expected to rise by 15%, from 3740 at the end of 1995 to 4290 at the end of 1999. The number of people expected to be living with severe HIV disease, including AIDS, will also rise by about 15%, from 7545 at the end of 1995 to 8650 at the end of 1999.