Time series analysis of out patients at Urban Health Centre, Suraj Kund, Meerut.

Abstract

Time series analysis of out-patients at Urban Health Centre, Suraj Kund, Meerut, was done using the out-patient attendance of last five years, with the aim to find out the values to help in coping up with the problem of health administration and management. The least square method and ratio-to-trend method were adopted for calculating the secular trend and seasonal variations respectively. There was an increasing trend in out-patients attendance indicating the increasing popularity of the Urban Health Centre. It was found that in second and third quarter of the year the out-patient attendance increased extraordinarily due to various reasons. The two more aspects of time series, i.e. cyclical trend and irregular flactuation could not be analysed due to their insignificant impact over the health management system.