Mathematical assessment of the impact of cohort vaccination on pneumococcal carriage and serotype replacement.

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-05-01 Epub Date: 2021-02-17 DOI:10.1080/17513758.2021.1884760

Tufail M Malik, Jemal Mohammed-Awel, Abba B Gumel, Elamin H Elbasha

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.

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队列疫苗接种对肺炎球菌携带和血清型替代影响的数学评估。

尽管肺炎球菌疫苗在减轻疾病负担方面相当有效，但疫苗效力不完善和血清型替代等因素对实现疫苗的直接和群体保护效益构成了重要挑战。在这项研究中，设计了一个新的数学模型，用于描述两种肺炎链球菌(SP)血清型的动态，以响应针对两种血清型之一的队列疫苗接种计划的引入。该模型适用于来自佐治亚州亚特兰大的儿科SP携带患病率数据。该模型经过严格分析，研究了相关均衡的存在性和渐近稳定性(除了探索竞争排斥的条件外)，并模拟了不同血清型特异性竞争水平下疫苗接种的影响，并说明了血清型替代现象。校正后的模型用于预测30年以上儿科队列的携带率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.

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