Perinatal mortality in West Germany following atmospheric nuclear weapons tests.

Abstract

Using trend analysis, the author sought a possible association between perinatal mortality rates in West Germany, 1955-1993, and the fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in the years 1952-1993. The regression model used a continuously falling trend and a superimposed extra term that reflects the average strontium content in pregnant women. Mortality rates show an upward deviation that peaked in 1970. The model attributes more than 100,000 excess perinatal deaths to strontium in the fallout. The dose-response curve is curvilinear with a power of dose of 1.81 +/- 0.23. In addition, using a combined regression model, the author analyzed the two data subsets of perinatal mortality (i.e., stillbirth rate and early neonatal mortality). The strontium effect is 3.4 times greater on early infant deaths than on stillbirths. According to the prevailing wisdom, the fetus is protected against damage from ionizing radiation by a threshold dose of 50-200 mSv, but the doses from strontium in the fallout were well below 1 mSv/yr in Germany. The results reported here seem to contradict the existence of a threshold dose for perinatal mortality at low doses.