Influenza, evolution, and the next pandemic.

Abstract

Mortality rates in influenza appear to have been shaped by evolution. During the 1918 pandemic, mortality rates were lower in children compared with adults. This mortality difference occurs in a wide variety of infectious diseases. It has been replicated in mice and might be due to greater tolerance of infection, not greater resistance. Importantly, combination treatment with inexpensive and widely available generic drugs (e.g. statins and angiotensin receptor blockers) might change the damaging host response in adults to a more tolerant response in children. These drugs might work by modifying endothelial dysfunction, mitochondrial biogenesis and immunometabolism. Treating the host response might be the only practical way to reduce global mortality during the next influenza pandemic. It might also help reduce mortality due to seasonal influenza and other forms of acute critical illness. To realize these benefits, we need laboratory and clinical studies of host response treatment before and after puberty.