Projecting the Spatial Distribution of Possible Planted Forest Expansion in the United States.

IF 1.8 3区 农林科学 Q2 FORESTRY Journal of Forestry Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.1093/jofore/fvz054
Christopher M Wade, Justin S Baker, Gregory Latta, Sara B Ohrel, Justine Allpress
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Abstract

As the demand for forest products and carbon storage in standing timbers increases, intensive planting of forest resources is expected to increase. With the increased use of plantation practices, it is important to understand the influence that forest plot characteristics have on the likelihood of where these practices are occurring. Depending on the goals of a policy or program, increasing forest planting could be a desirable outcome or something to avoid. This study estimates a spatially explicit logistical regression function to assess the likelihood that forest plots will be planted based on physical, climate, and economic factors. The empirical results are used to project the potential spatial distribution of forest planting, at the intensive and extensive land-use margins, across illustrative future scenarios. Results from this analysis offer insight into the factors that have driven forest planting in the United States historically and the potential distribution of new forest planting in the coming decades under policy or market scenarios that incentivize improved forest productivity or certain ecosystem services provided by intensively managed systems (e.g., carbon sequestration).

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预测美国人工林可能扩张的空间分布。
随着对林产品和活立木碳储量需求的增加,森林资源的集约化种植预计也会增加。随着植树造林实践的增加,了解林地特征对这些实践发生的可能性的影响非常重要。根据政策或计划的目标,增加植树造林可能是一个理想的结果,也可能是需要避免的。本研究估算了一个空间明确的逻辑回归函数,以评估根据物理、气候和经济因素种植林地的可能性。实证结果用于预测未来各种说明性情景下,在集约型和粗放型土地利用边缘植树造林的潜在空间分布。这项分析的结果有助于深入了解历史上推动美国植树造林的因素,以及在政策或市场激励下,未来几十年新植树造林的潜在分布情况,这些政策或市场激励可提高森林生产力或集约化管理系统提供的某些生态系统服务(如碳固存)。
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来源期刊
Journal of Forestry
Journal of Forestry 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
8.70%
发文量
45
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Forestry is the most widely circulated scholarly forestry journal in the world. In print since 1902, the mission of the Journal of Forestry is to advance the profession of forestry by keeping forest management professionals informed about significant developments and ideas in the many facets of forestry. The Journal is published bimonthly: January, March, May, July, September, and November.
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