The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19.

IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY Journal of Geographical Systems Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-05-23 DOI:10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3
Timo Mitze, Reinhold Kosfeld
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Abstract

This work is concerned with the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Germany. Our goal is twofold: first, we propose a novel spatial econometric model of the epidemic spread across NUTS-3 regions to identify the role played by commuting-to-work patterns for spatial disease transmission. Second, we explore if the imposed containment (lockdown) measures during the first pandemic wave in spring 2020 have affected the strength of this transmission channel. Our results from a spatial panel error correction model indicate that, without containment measures in place, commuting-to-work patterns were the first factor to significantly determine the spatial dynamics of daily COVID-19 cases in Germany. This indicates that job commuting, particularly during the initial phase of a pandemic wave, should be regarded and accordingly monitored as a relevant spatial transmission channel of COVID-19 in a system of economically interconnected regions. Our estimation results also provide evidence for the triggering role of local hot spots in disease transmission and point to the effectiveness of containment measures in mitigating the spread of the virus across German regions through reduced job commuting and other forms of mobility.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3.

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COVID-19 空间传播中通勤的传播效应。
这项研究关注德国 2019 年冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)的时空动态。我们的目标有两个:首先,我们提出了一个新颖的空间计量经济模型,用于分析疫情在 NUTS-3 地区的传播情况,以确定上下班通勤模式在疾病空间传播中所起的作用。其次,我们探讨了 2020 年春季第一波大流行期间实施的遏制(封锁)措施是否影响了这一传播渠道的强度。我们通过空间面板误差修正模型得出的结果表明,在没有采取遏制措施的情况下,上下班通勤模式是显著决定德国 COVID-19 日病例空间动态的首要因素。这表明,在一个经济相互关联的地区系统中,通勤(尤其是在流行病浪潮的初期阶段)应被视为 COVID-19 的一个相关空间传播渠道,并应受到相应的监控。我们的估算结果还为地方热点在疾病传播中的触发作用提供了证据,并表明遏制措施在通过减少工作通勤和其他形式的流动来减轻病毒在德国各地区传播方面的有效性:在线版本包含补充材料,可查阅 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
6.90%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: The Journal of Geographical Systems (JGS) is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed academic journal that aims to encourage and promote high-quality scholarship on new theoretical or empirical results, models and methods in the social sciences. It solicits original papers with a spatial dimension that can be of interest to social scientists. Coverage includes regional science, economic geography, spatial economics, regional and urban economics, GIScience and GeoComputation, big data and machine learning. Spatial analysis, spatial econometrics and statistics are strongly represented. One of the distinctive features of the journal is its concern for the interface between modeling, statistical techniques and spatial issues in a wide spectrum of related fields. An important goal of the journal is to encourage a spatial perspective in the social sciences that emphasizes geographical space as a relevant dimension to our understanding of socio-economic phenomena. Contributions should be of high-quality, be technically well-crafted, make a substantial contribution to the subject and contain a spatial dimension. The journal also aims to publish, review and survey articles that make recent theoretical and methodological developments more readily accessible to the audience of the journal. All papers of this journal have undergone rigorous double-blind peer-review, based on initial editor screening and with at least two peer reviewers. Officially cited as J Geogr Syst
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