The Baltic CAI challenge: reconciling Transatlanticism with EU solidarity

Abstract

As the EU officials and their Chinese counterparts emphasised the end of 2020 as the date for a successful conclusion of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI, the Agreement), the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were sceptical. However, after discussions, with Lithuania appearing to be the most visible opponent of CAI among the Baltic nations, all three eventually upheld the proposal. Understanding that the ratification of CAI is unlikely after the mutual exchange of sanctions between the EU and PRC in March, 2021, the report nevertheless examines the roots of the Baltic position as a case study of inter-EU bargains, inspects what factors contributed to the Baltic position on the issue of CAI, presents the national pro- and counter-arguments to CAI along the domains of geo-politics, values, and economy, and brings up the dilemmas that remain unsolved.