Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City.

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-06-30 DOI:10.1186/s40163-021-00151-y

Patricio R Estévez-Soto

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Abstract

Background: This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers.

Method: The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors.

Results: Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type.

Conclusion: The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.

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犯罪与 COVID-19：墨西哥城日常活动变化的影响。

背景：本研究旨在确定墨西哥城的犯罪模式是否因 COVID-19 大流行病而发生变化，并检验观察到的任何变化是否与日常活动的中断有关，以公共交通乘客人数的变化来衡量：第一个目标是在墨西哥发现 COVID-19 大流行病后，将观察到的犯罪率与根据大流行病前趋势进行的 ARIMA 预测得出的预期犯罪率进行比较。第二个目标是通过使用带有 ARIMA 误差的回归分析，研究犯罪发生率与公共交通乘客数量之间的关系：结果表明，在该国发现大流行病或实行全国封锁后，大多数犯罪类别都明显减少。此外，研究还发现，观察到的一些下降与公共交通乘客人数的减少有关。不过，研究结果表明，流动性的变化可以解释所观察到的部分下降，但每种犯罪类型之间存在很大差异：研究结果有助于全面评估 COVID-19 对犯罪的影响，并提出了一种可靠的方法来明确检验所观察到的变化是否与日常活动的变化有关。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

8.20%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.