Andrew Omame, Ndolane Sene, Ikenna Nometa, Cosmas I Nwakanma, Emmanuel U Nwafor, Nneka O Iheonu, Daniel Okuonghae
{"title":"Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co-infection model with optimal control.","authors":"Andrew Omame, Ndolane Sene, Ikenna Nometa, Cosmas I Nwakanma, Emmanuel U Nwafor, Nneka O Iheonu, Daniel Okuonghae","doi":"10.1002/oca.2748","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with re-infection in order to assess the impact of prior comorbidity (specifically, <b>diabetes mellitus</b>) on COVID-19 complications. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of reinfection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. Simulations of the cumulative number of active cases (including those with comorbidity), at different reinfection rates, show infection peaks reducing with decreasing reinfection of those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.</p>","PeriodicalId":54672,"journal":{"name":"Optimal Control Applications & Methods","volume":"42 6","pages":"1568-1590"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/oca.2748","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Optimal Control Applications & Methods","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/oca.2748","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/6/2 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with re-infection in order to assess the impact of prior comorbidity (specifically, diabetes mellitus) on COVID-19 complications. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of reinfection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. Simulations of the cumulative number of active cases (including those with comorbidity), at different reinfection rates, show infection peaks reducing with decreasing reinfection of those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.
期刊介绍：
Optimal Control Applications & Methods provides a forum for papers on the full range of optimal and optimization based control theory and related control design methods. The aim is to encourage new developments in control theory and design methodologies that will lead to real advances in control applications. Papers are also encouraged on the development, comparison and testing of computational algorithms for solving optimal control and optimization problems. The scope also includes papers on optimal estimation and filtering methods which have control related applications. Finally, it will provide a focus for interesting optimal control design studies and report real applications experience covering problems in implementation and robustness.
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
