Trends and projection in the proportion of (heavy) cannabis use in Germany from 1995 to 2021

IF 5.2 1区医学 Q1 PSYCHIATRY Addiction Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI:10.1111/add.16356

Sally Olderbak, Justin Möckl, Jakob Manthey, Sara Lee, Jürgen Rehm, Eva Hoch, Ludwig Kraus

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Abstract

Aims

To measure the current trends of cannabis use in Germany, measure trends in the proportion of heavy cannabis users and estimate future cannabis use rates.

Design

Repeated waves of the Epidemiological Survey on Substance Abuse, a cross-sectional survey conducted between 1995 and 2021 with a two-stage participant selection strategy where respondents completed a survey on substance use delivered through the post, over the telephone or on-line.

Setting

Germany.

Participants/cases

German-speaking participants aged between 18 and 59 years living in Germany who self-reported on their cannabis use in the past 12 months (n = 78 678). With the application of a weighting scheme, the data are nationally representative.

Measurements

Questions on the frequency of cannabis use in the past 12 months and self-reported changes in frequency of use due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Findings

The prevalence of past 12-month cannabis users increased from 4.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.7, 5.1] in 1995 to 10.0% (95% CI = 8.9, 11.3) in 2021. Modeling these trends revealed a significant increase that accelerated over the past decade. The proportion of heavy cannabis users [cannabis use (almost) daily or at least 200 times per year] among past-year users has remained steady from 1995 (11.4%, 95% CI = 7.7, 16.5) to 2018 (9.5%, 95% CI = 7.6, 11.9), but significantly increased to 15.7% (95% CI = 13.1, 18.8) in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Extrapolating from these models, the prevalence of 12-month cannabis users in 2024 is expected to range between 10.4 and 15.0%, while the proportion of heavy cannabis users is unclear.

Conclusions

Trends from 1995 to 2021 suggest that the prevalence of past 12-month cannabis users in Germany will continue to increase, with expected rates between 10.4 and 15.0% for the German-speaking adult population, and that at least one in 10 cannabis users will continue to use cannabis heavily (almost daily or 200 + times in the past year).

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1995年至2021年德国（大量）大麻使用比例的趋势和预测。

目的：衡量德国大麻使用的当前趋势，衡量大麻重度使用者比例的趋势，并估计未来的大麻使用率。设计：药物滥用流行病学调查的重复浪潮，这是一项在1995年至2021年间进行的横断面调查，采用两阶段参与者选择策略，受访者通过邮寄、电话或在线完成了一项关于药物使用的调查。背景：德国。参与者/案例：年龄在18至59岁之间的德语参与者在德国生活的年数，他们自我报告了过去12年的大麻使用情况月（n = 78 678）。通过加权方案的应用，这些数据具有全国代表性。测量：关于过去12年大麻使用频率的问题数月以及自我报告的新冠肺炎大流行导致的使用频率变化。调查结果：过去12个月大麻使用者的患病率从4.4%[95%置信区间（CI）增加 = 3.7，5.1]至10.0%（95%置信区间 = 8.911.3）。对这些趋势进行建模显示，在过去十年中，增长速度显著加快。自1995年以来，重度大麻使用者[几乎每天或每年至少200次使用大麻]的比例一直保持稳定（11.4%，95%置信区间 = 7.7，16.5）至2018年（9.5%，95%置信区间 = 7.6，11.9），但显著增加到15.7%（95%置信区间 = 13.1，18.8）。根据这些模型推断，2024年12个月大麻使用者的流行率预计在10.4%至15.0%之间，而重度大麻使用者的比例尚不清楚。结论：1995年至2021年的趋势表明，德国过去12个月大麻使用者的流行率将继续上升，德语成年人口的预期流行率在10.4%至15.0%之间，至少十分之一的大麻使用者将继续大量使用大麻（几乎每天或200 + 过去一年的次数）。

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来源期刊

Addiction 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

10.80

自引率

6.70%

发文量

319

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Addiction publishes peer-reviewed research reports on pharmacological and behavioural addictions, bringing together research conducted within many different disciplines. Its goal is to serve international and interdisciplinary scientific and clinical communication, to strengthen links between science and policy, and to stimulate and enhance the quality of debate. We seek submissions that are not only technically competent but are also original and contain information or ideas of fresh interest to our international readership. We seek to serve low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries as well as more economically developed countries. Addiction’s scope spans human experimental, epidemiological, social science, historical, clinical and policy research relating to addiction, primarily but not exclusively in the areas of psychoactive substance use and/or gambling. In addition to original research, the journal features editorials, commentaries, reviews, letters, and book reviews.