{"title":"Efficient alternatives for Bayesian hypothesis tests in psychology.","authors":"Sandipan Pramanik, Valen E Johnson","doi":"10.1037/met0000482","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures have gained increased acceptance in recent years. A key advantage that Bayesian tests have over classical testing procedures is their potential to quantify information in support of true null hypotheses. Ironically, default implementations of Bayesian tests prevent the accumulation of strong evidence in favor of true null hypotheses because associated default alternative hypotheses assign a high probability to data that are most consistent with a null effect. We propose the use of \"nonlocal\" alternative hypotheses to resolve this paradox. The resulting class of Bayesian hypothesis tests permits more rapid accumulation of evidence in favor of both true null hypotheses and alternative hypotheses that are compatible with standardized effect sizes of most interest in psychology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).</p>","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":"243-261"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9561355/pdf/nihms-1808497.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Psychological methods","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000482","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/4/14 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures have gained increased acceptance in recent years. A key advantage that Bayesian tests have over classical testing procedures is their potential to quantify information in support of true null hypotheses. Ironically, default implementations of Bayesian tests prevent the accumulation of strong evidence in favor of true null hypotheses because associated default alternative hypotheses assign a high probability to data that are most consistent with a null effect. We propose the use of "nonlocal" alternative hypotheses to resolve this paradox. The resulting class of Bayesian hypothesis tests permits more rapid accumulation of evidence in favor of both true null hypotheses and alternative hypotheses that are compatible with standardized effect sizes of most interest in psychology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
期刊介绍:
Psychological Methods is devoted to the development and dissemination of methods for collecting, analyzing, understanding, and interpreting psychological data. Its purpose is the dissemination of innovations in research design, measurement, methodology, and quantitative and qualitative analysis to the psychological community; its further purpose is to promote effective communication about related substantive and methodological issues. The audience is expected to be diverse and to include those who develop new procedures, those who are responsible for undergraduate and graduate training in design, measurement, and statistics, as well as those who employ those procedures in research.