The Covid-pandemic has ended. Again.

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to discuss the evolving interpretations of the Covid crisis and its impact on hospitality and tourism.Design/methodology/approachScenario planning paper following Framework Foresight about the Covid pandemic and its impact on hospitality and tourism. Research input was gathered from research reports in different disciplines and discussions with an expert panel.FindingsThe paper argues that hypothesized recovery scenarios were founded on hope and inaccurate extrapolations, and that hospitality and tourism may head for permanently lower volumes.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper contributes to the debate on tourism resilience and hopeful visions of a sustainable restart.Practical implicationsInstead of just focusing on direct pandemic impact and that of governmental measures, a third variable of consumer confidence will be decisive, and more important than expected by many initially, in future scenarios for hospitality and tourism.Originality/valueThe proposed scenarios that were designed with executive level industry input have so far proven more realistic than prevalent views of a swift recovery.