Real Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Divergences within the EZ12: Evidence Based at Mean Group Estimators

Abstract

Since nominal interest rate and nominal exchange rate are common for the Euro-zone (EZ) members, inflation differentials initiate real interest rate and real exchange rate divergences with further spill-over effects. The aim of the research is to investigate in which extent national price level, real interest rate and real exchange rate, co-move or diverge from supranational EZ variables. The research results, based on heterogeneous dynamic macro-panel data of 12 initial EZ members in the period 1999Q1-2019Q4, confirm heterogeneous adjustment, as well as the lack of balancing towards equilibrium, as a sign of EZ vulnerability.