Impact of renewed solar dimming on streamflow generation in monsoon dominated tropical river basins

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Hydro-environment Research Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jher.2022.02.002
Pramod Soni , Shivam Tripathi , Rajesh Srivastava
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Abstract

From 1950s to 1980s, various observational studies around the globe found a significant decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR), which reversed in late 1980s for most of the countries including India. SSR observations at 12 stations located across India revealed that a much stronger dimming has reappeared during the last decade (2006–2015) after a brightening during 1996–2005. In the present study, effects of renewed solar dimming on actual evapotranspiration and runoff were analyzed using a semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in 24 river basins (ranging from 1260 to 40000 km2) located in peninsular India. For these river basins, calibration (2003–2009) and validation (2010–2014) were performed using the observed daily discharge data, obtained from water resources information system (WRIS) of India, with a 3 year warm up period (2000–2002). The sequential uncertainty domain parameter fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) of SWAT-CUP (calibration and uncertainty program) was used with modified Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (MNS) as the objective function to calibrate 13 model parameters, which can potentially affect streamflow. In nearly all the river basins, the p- and r-factor of 95 percentage prediction uncertainty (PPU) were more than 0.7 and less than 1, respectively. At daily timescale, MNS values were more than 0.5 in most of the river basins, reaching up to 0.66 and 0.71 during calibration and validation periods, respectively. Calibrated model was used to analyze the water balance of these river basins and different sets of experiments (with observed SSR trends) were performed to find SSR impacts on it. The model was simulated with and without the observed declines in SSR trends. The average change in SSR (in terms of evaporation equivalent) was −267.93 ± 100.92 mm/day/year (−5.62 ± 2.12%) with maximum reaching up to −417.12 mm/day/year (−8.99%). Due to this SSR change, actual evaporation was reduced resulting in 18.97 ± 9.78 mm/day/year (4.13 ± 2.50%) change in percolation. The percolation changes were higher for river basins having areas covered by forests and cropland/woodland, and having loam and sandy-clay soils. The increase in runoff generated was 6.90 ± 3.42 mm/day/year (2.14 ± 1.58%) with a maximum of 15.25 mm/day/year (7.56%) whereas corresponding increase in streamflow was found to be 9.93 ± 5.27 mm/day/year(4.21 ± 2.38%) with a maximum of 26.71 mm/day/year (11.86 %). The study reveals that the recent observed SSR changes are significant enough to have resulted in increased streamflow in the monsoon dominated tropical river basins of India.

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太阳再次变暗对季风主导的热带河流流域水流生成的影响
从20世纪50年代到80年代,全球各种观测研究发现,地表太阳辐射(SSR)显著减少,在20世纪80年代后期,包括印度在内的大多数国家都出现了逆转。在印度12个观测站的SSR观测显示,在1996-2005年的增亮之后,在过去十年(2006-2015年)再次出现了更强的变暗。在本研究中,利用半分布式水文模型,土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)分析了印度半岛24个河流流域(范围从1260到40000 km2)的重新太阳变暗对实际蒸散发和径流的影响。对这些流域进行了标定(2003-2009年)和验证(2010-2014年),使用的是印度水资源信息系统(WRIS)的日观测流量数据,暖期为3年(2000-2002年)。采用SWAT-CUP(定标与不确定程序)序列不确定域参数拟合算法(SUFI-2),以改进的Nash-Sutcliffe效率(MNS)为目标函数,对可能影响水流的13个模型参数进行了定标。在几乎所有流域,95%预测不确定性(PPU)的p-因子大于0.7,r-因子小于1。在日尺度上,大部分流域的MNS值均大于0.5,在定标期和验证期分别达到0.66和0.71。利用校正后的模型对流域水平衡进行分析,并通过不同的实验(观察到SSR趋势)来研究SSR对流域水平衡的影响。对该模型进行了有和无SSR下降趋势的模拟。SSR的平均变化(蒸发当量)为−267.93±100.92 mm/day/year(−5.62±2.12%),最大值为−417.12 mm/day/year(−8.99%)。由于SSR的变化,实际蒸发量减少,导致渗流变化18.97±9.78 mm/天/年(4.13±2.50%)。有森林和耕地/林地覆盖的流域,以及有壤土和沙土的流域,其渗滤变化较大。径流增加量为6.90±3.42 mm/d /年(2.14±1.58%),最大增加量为15.25 mm/d /年(7.56%);径流增加量为9.93±5.27 mm/d /年(4.21±2.38%),最大增加量为26.71 mm/d /年(11.86%)。研究表明,最近观测到的SSR变化足以导致印度季风主导的热带河流流域的流量增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydro-environment Research
Journal of Hydro-environment Research ENGINEERING, CIVIL-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
34
审稿时长
98 days
期刊介绍: The journal aims to provide an international platform for the dissemination of research and engineering applications related to water and hydraulic problems in the Asia-Pacific region. The journal provides a wide distribution at affordable subscription rate, as well as a rapid reviewing and publication time. The journal particularly encourages papers from young researchers. Papers that require extensive language editing, qualify for editorial assistance with American Journal Experts, a Language Editing Company that Elsevier recommends. Authors submitting to this journal are entitled to a 10% discount.
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