Journal of Hydro-environment Research最新文献

Relative contribution of uncertainties to standardized drought index calculation using a linear mixture model 不确定性对线性混合模型标准化干旱指数计算的相对贡献

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2026-06-30 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2026.100697

Ji Yae Shin , Jeongwoo Han , Hyun-Han Kwon , Tae-Woong Kim

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely used for monitoring drought due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, various uncertainties arise from multiple factors in SPI calculation including the length of precipitation data, accumulation periods, probability distributions, and parameter estimation methods. This study aims to quantify the relative contribution of these factors to SPI uncertainty using a linear mixed model (LMM). In this study, various SPI calculation scenarios were considered by combining three data lengths (20, 30, and 50 years), four accumulation periods (1, 3, 6, and 12 months), five probability distributions (gamma, normal, log-normal, logistic, and generalized extreme value), and two parameter estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimation and L-moment). In our study, reference precipitation was defined as the amount of precipitation corresponding to a target SPI value (e.g., –1.0 or –2.0), determined by inverting the standard SPI calculation process. The uncertainty was quantified by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) between the reference SPI and calculated SPI from various SPI calculation scenarios. The results showed that uncertainty decreased with longer accumulation periods and data lengths, while the RMSE was substantially higher and more variable under SPI = –2.0 than SPI = –1.0. The LMM was then used to assess the contribution of each uncertainty factor. The results revealed that for moderate drought conditions (SPI = –1.0), the primary contributors to uncertainty were sample size and accumulation period. However, under extreme drought conditions (SPI = –2.0), probability distribution accounted for over 50% of the total variance, reaching up to 84% in some cases. The impact of parameter estimation methods was relatively nonsignificant under all conditions, consistently accounting for less than 3% of the total variance. These findings suggest that selecting an appropriate distribution and using long-term precipitation data are critical for improving the reliability of SPI-based drought assessments. This study highlights the critical need for long-term precipitation records (at least 50 years), appropriate accumulation periods, and rigorous selection of probability distributions, particularly under extreme drought conditions.

标准化降水指数（SPI）因其简单、有效而被广泛应用于干旱监测。但是，在SPI计算中，降水数据的长度、积累周期、概率分布、参数估计方法等因素会产生各种不确定性。本研究旨在利用线性混合模型（LMM）量化这些因素对SPI不确定性的相对贡献。本研究结合3种数据长度（20年、30年和50年）、4个积累周期（1、3、6和12个月）、5种概率分布（gamma、正态、对数正态、logistic和广义极值）以及2种参数估计方法（极大似然估计和l矩），考虑了多种SPI计算场景。在我们的研究中，参考降水量被定义为与目标SPI值（例如-1.0或-2.0）相对应的降水量，通过反演标准SPI计算过程来确定。通过计算参考SPI与各种SPI计算场景下计算SPI之间的均方根误差（RMSE）来量化不确定度。结果表明，随着积累周期和数据长度的延长，不确定性降低，而SPI = -2.0时的RMSE比SPI = -1.0时的RMSE高得多，变量也更多。然后使用LMM来评估每个不确定因素的贡献。结果表明，在中度干旱条件下（SPI = -1.0），不确定性的主要影响因子是样本量和积累期。而在极端干旱条件下（SPI = -2.0），概率分布占总方差的50%以上，有的甚至高达84%。在所有条件下，参数估计方法的影响相对不显著，始终占总方差的3%以下。这些发现表明，选择适当的分布和使用长期降水数据对于提高基于spi的干旱评估的可靠性至关重要。这项研究强调了对长期降水记录（至少50年）、适当的积累期和严格选择概率分布的迫切需要，特别是在极端干旱条件下。

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引用次数: 0

Hydro-abrasion processes and modelling at hydraulic structures and steep bedrock rivers: 2. Hydro-abrasion model development and application 水工建筑物和陡峭基岩河流的水磨过程和建模；水磨模型的开发与应用

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2026-03-30 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2025.100690

Dila Demiral , Ismail Albayrak , Jens M. Turowski , Robert M. Boes

Hydro-abrasion is a process of wear resulting from the mechanical stress exerted by impacting particles in the flow on a riverbed or banks or on the invert of hydraulic structures. Hydro-abrasion models represent the mechanics of invert abrasion by bed load particles and allow to predict hydro-abrasion rates. The present study deals with the enhancement of the existing mechanistic saltation hydro-abrasion model by incorporating new equations for particle velocity, hop length, an exponential cover effect term, and two additional important terms accounting for particle hardness and saltation probability, respectively. We particularly focus on the effects of particle and bed lining material hardness, bed cover, and low aspect ratio on hydro-abrasion, which were not holistically investigated in previous studies. The non-dimensional hydro-abrasion coefficient k_v (also known as the rock resistance coefficient) in the enhanced model was calibrated using both experimental laboratory data and field measurements obtained from three Swiss Sediment Bypass Tunnels as part of our research project. A constant value of k_v = 4.8 ± 2.2 × 10⁴ was obtained for a range of different materials with less scattering compared to the coefficients reported in previous studies. The enhanced model demonstrated a good performance when validated with independent data from laboratory and field studies, indicating that the laboratory results can be upscaled to prototype conditions.

水磨是水流中冲击颗粒对河床、河岸或水工构筑物的倒拱施加机械应力而产生的磨损过程。水力磨损模型代表了床载颗粒的反向磨损力学，并允许预测水力磨损速率。本研究通过引入粒子速度、跳跃长度、指数覆盖效应项和分别代表颗粒硬度和跳跃概率的两个重要项的新方程，加强了现有的机械跳跃水力磨损模型。我们特别关注颗粒和床衬材料硬度、床罩和低纵横比对水磨损的影响，这些在以前的研究中没有得到全面的研究。增强模型中的无量纲水力磨损系数kv（也称为岩石阻力系数）使用实验实验室数据和从三个瑞士沉积物绕道隧道获得的现场测量数据进行校准，这是我们研究项目的一部分。在不同材料的散射系数范围内，得到了kv = 4.8±2.2 × 104的恒定值。通过实验室和现场研究的独立数据验证，增强模型表现出良好的性能，表明实验室结果可以扩展到原型条件。

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引用次数: 0

Data and knowledge-driven model for flood peak runoff forecasting 洪峰径流预测的数据与知识驱动模型

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2026-03-30 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2026.100695

Haider Malik , Jun Feng , Pingping Shao , Zaid Ameen Abduljabbar

Accurate forecasting of flood runoff peaks during rainstorms remains challenging because prediction errors usually increase near flood thresholds and peak discharge. Most deep learning models learn patterns from data only and do not explicitly emphasize peak-critical errors during training. Therefore, we propose a data and knowledge-driven (DK-TCIT) model that integrates Time-Distributed Convolutional Neural Networks (TD-CNN) for local feature extraction, Informer with ProbSparse attention for global temporal dependencies, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) for local–global sequence modeling. A key innovation is a knowledge-guided loss function that embeds expert knowledge of flood dynamics, assigning higher learning priority to the critical peak-flow region detected from observed flood thresholds. DK-TCIT was evaluated on two basins in China (ChangHua and TunXi) using a 12-hour input window to predict the next 6 h of runoff. Results show that DK-TCIT consistently outperformed ConvLSTM, CNN, SLSTM, TD-CNN-LSTM, STALSTM, Informer, and TCN across all metrics. In TunXi, it achieved RMSE reductions of 31–42% and NSE improvements of 26–41% compared with the best baseline model, while similar gains were obtained in the ChangHua basin. The proposed loss function also surpassed Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and standard Huber loss, with the largest gains observed around peak runoff conditions. These findings indicate that combining hybrid spatiotemporal learning with explicit peak-focused supervision improves short-term flood peak forecasting and provides a practical solution for flood hazard management applications.

准确预测暴雨期间的洪水径流峰值仍然具有挑战性，因为预测误差通常在洪水阈值和洪峰流量附近增加。大多数深度学习模型仅从数据中学习模式，并且在训练期间没有明确强调峰值临界错误。因此，我们提出了一种数据和知识驱动（DK-TCIT）模型，该模型集成了时间分布卷积神经网络（TD-CNN）用于局部特征提取，具有ProbSparse注意力的Informer用于全局时间依赖性，以及用于局部-全局序列建模的时间卷积网络（TCN）。一个关键的创新是一个知识导向的损失函数，它嵌入了洪水动力学的专家知识，为从观测到的洪水阈值检测到的关键峰流区域分配了更高的学习优先级。利用12小时输入窗口对中国两个流域（昌化和屯溪）的DK-TCIT进行了评价，预测了未来6小时的径流。结果表明，DK-TCIT在所有指标上均优于ConvLSTM、CNN、SLSTM、TD-CNN-LSTM、STALSTM、Informer和TCN。在屯溪，与最佳基线模型相比，RMSE降低了31-42%，NSE提高了26-41%，而在彰化盆地也获得了类似的收益。所提出的损失函数也超过了均方误差（MSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）和标准Huber损失，在峰值径流条件下观察到最大的收益。这些结果表明，将混合时空学习与明确的以峰值为中心的监督相结合，可以提高短期洪峰预测，为洪水灾害管理应用提供了一种实用的解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Quantify uncertainty of meta-heuristic algorithms in optimal reservoir operation 水库优化调度中元启发式算法的不确定性量化

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2026-03-30 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2026.100696

Mohsen Saroughi , Hamed Nozari

Reservoir systems serve as a prevalent mechanism for the control and management of water resources. Given the constraints of limited resources and the escalating demands for water, it is imperative that these systems are operated optimally to enhance the efficiency of water utilization. Despite advancements in addressing real-world challenges, classical optimization methods frequently fall short of delivering optimal solutions due to the structural complexity and the multitude of variables involved. As a result, there exists an urgent need for more effective and robust methodologies to address these challenges. Meta-heuristic algorithms, particularly those inspired by biological evolution and referred to as evolutionary computation, represent reliable and straightforward approaches for tackling complex optimization problems, positioning themselves as viable alternatives to traditional optimization techniques. Evolutionary computation can be classified into two primary categories: evolution strategies and swarm intelligence. While meta-heuristic algorithms based on swarm intelligence are characterized as multi-agent systems that emulate individual behaviors, those grounded in evolution strategies employ adaptive search mechanisms derived from evolutionary processes. This research aims to quantify the uncertainty associated with meta-heuristic algorithms and to evaluate their efficacy in the planning and management of water resources, specifically for the optimal operation of a single reservoir. The study assesses 101 evolutionary algorithms, categorized into eight groups, with a focus on their application in optimizing reservoir system operations to enhance efficiency. The case study centers on the Gheshlagh Reservoir located in Kurdistan, Iran. A comparative analysis of the performance of these algorithms revealed that the SHADE algorithm outperformed its counterparts, achieving a minimum objective function value of 9.59 × 10⁻¹⁰ and demonstrating superior computational speed. Notably, SHADE attained a demand deficit of zero million cubic meters for the reservoir, whereas the FOA algorithm recorded the highest deficit of 10.74 million cubic meters. Furthermore, DE class algorithms exhibited the highest overall performance in the operation of the Gheshlagh Reservoir, showcasing reduced computation times, enhanced robustness, and improved decision-making capabilities. The study underscores the significance of algorithmic structure and problem type in determining performance outcomes, recommending the adoption of SHADE or DE class algorithms for the formulation of operational policies in complex reservoir systems. These findings provide valuable insights for researchers seeking to introduce new or modified algorithms and offer guidance to administrators in selecting the most appropriate algorithm based on specific operational requirements.

水库系统是控制和管理水资源的普遍机制。由于资源有限和对水的需求不断增加，这些系统必须以最佳方式运作，以提高水的利用效率。尽管在解决现实挑战方面取得了进步，但由于结构复杂性和涉及的变量众多，传统的优化方法经常无法提供最优解决方案。因此，迫切需要更有效、更有力的方法来应对这些挑战。元启发式算法，特别是那些受生物进化启发并被称为进化计算的算法，代表了解决复杂优化问题的可靠和直接的方法，将自己定位为传统优化技术的可行替代方案。进化计算可以分为两大类：进化策略和群体智能。基于群体智能的元启发式算法的特点是模仿个体行为的多智能体系统，而基于进化策略的元启发式算法则采用源自进化过程的自适应搜索机制。本研究旨在量化与元启发式算法相关的不确定性，并评估其在水资源规划和管理中的有效性，特别是单个水库的最佳运行。该研究评估了101种进化算法，将其分为8类，重点关注它们在优化油藏系统操作以提高效率方面的应用。案例研究以位于伊朗库尔德斯坦的Gheshlagh水库为中心。通过对这些算法性能的对比分析表明，SHADE算法优于其他算法，实现了9.59 × 10−10的最小目标函数值，并且显示出更高的计算速度。值得注意的是，SHADE对水库的需求赤字为0万立方米，而FOA算法记录的赤字最高为1074万立方米。此外，DE类算法在Gheshlagh水库的运行中表现出最高的整体性能，减少了计算时间，增强了鲁棒性，提高了决策能力。该研究强调了算法结构和问题类型在确定性能结果方面的重要性，并建议采用SHADE或DE类算法来制定复杂油藏系统的操作政策。这些发现为寻求引入新的或修改的算法的研究人员提供了有价值的见解，并为管理员根据特定的操作要求选择最合适的算法提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

Morphodynamic modelling of a wave-driven river mouth sandspit in data-scarce coastal environments: an example at the Volta River Mouth, Ghana, West Africa 数据匮乏的沿海环境中波浪驱动河口沙粒的形态动力学建模：以西非加纳沃尔特河口为例

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2026-03-30 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2026.100694

Stephan K. Lawson , Janaka Bamunawala , Hitoshi Tanaka , Keiko Udo

The morphodynamic behaviour of river mouth sandspits, sustained by wave-driven longshore sediment transport, is governed by complex interactions between prevailing hydrodynamics and anthropogenic forcing. At many coastal environments, the lack of field-measured datasets, more often than not, hampers long-term morphodynamic investigations on river mouth sandspits, thus making them data-scarce locations. This study investigates the wave-dominated and micro-tidal Volta River mouth in Ghana using process-based Delft3D model simulations. The simulations of the river mouth’s unrestricted (natural) updrift spit state were undertaken using hydrodynamic data schematisation approaches and satellite-derived and global bathymetries. Model results showed that, among varying wave conditions, relatively higher wave heights (∼1.8–1.9 m) facilitate a narrow-width spit growth at a faster rate. Conversely, an elongating spit with a slower growth rate and a larger width was observed under relatively moderate wave heights (∼1.2–1.3 m). The results indicate that the growth rate of an unrestricted spit decreases with increasing width. These findings are important for understanding how unrestricted spit’s formation and morphodynamic evolution affect river mouths. Most importantly, the results can be related to morphodynamic feedback during spit breaching events, formation of intruded spits, narrowing or closure of river mouths, and inland flooding of surrounding estuarine and coastal communities.

河口沙坑的形态动力学行为是由波浪驱动的海岸沉积物输运所维持的，受主导水动力和人为强迫之间复杂的相互作用所控制。在许多沿海环境中，缺乏实地测量的数据集，往往会阻碍对河口沙沫的长期形态动力学调查，从而使它们成为数据稀缺的地方。本研究利用基于过程的Delft3D模型模拟研究了加纳沃尔塔河河口的波浪控制和微潮。利用水动力数据示意图方法和卫星导出的全球水深测量方法，对河口无限制（自然）上漂吐槽状态进行了模拟。模型结果表明，在不同的波浪条件下，相对较高的波高（~ 1.8-1.9 m）有助于以更快的速度生长窄宽度的吐槽。相反，在相对中等的波高（~ 1.2-1.3 m）下，观察到生长速度较慢且宽度较大的细长吐槽。结果表明，随宽度的增加，无限制熔滴的生长速率减小。这些发现对于理解不受限制的河口形成和形态动力学演化如何影响河口具有重要意义。最重要的是，这些结果可能与吐槽破裂事件中的形态动力学反馈、入侵吐槽的形成、河口变窄或关闭以及周围河口和沿海社区的内陆洪水有关。

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引用次数: 0

Hydro-abrasion processes and modelling at hydraulic structures and steep bedrock rivers: 1. Hydro-abrasion and cover effect 水工建筑物和陡峭基岩河流的水磨过程和建模：1。水磨和覆盖效果

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2026-03-30 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2025.100691

Dila Demiral , Ismail Albayrak , Jens M. Turowski , Robert M. Boes

Hydro-abrasion refers to the gradual loss of material on the surface of a solid body, caused by mechanical stress, mainly from the impacts of sediment saltation in flowing water. Hydraulic structures like weirs, spillways, diversion tunnels, and especially sediment bypass tunnels (SBTs) experience significant hydro-abrasion due to high flow velocities and elevated sediment transport rates. The hydro-abrasion process is critical in hydraulic engineering, where material loss can lead to structural damage and costly repairs, and in geomorphology, where it drives bedrock incision and shapes landscape evolution over time. This study aims to advance the knowledge of hydro-abrasion mechanics (part I, present paper) and to enhance a mechanistic saltation hydro-abrasion model (part 2) for predicting river and landscape evolution and hydro-abrasion at hydraulic structures. To this end, hydro-abrasion tests of polyurethane foams and weak mortar mixtures as bed materials were systematically conducted in a 0.20 m wide, 0.7 m deep and 13.5 m long laboratory flume at VAW at ETH Zurich, under supercritical flow conditions. The study investigates the effect of flume width-to-flow depth aspect ratios, approach flow Froude numbers, particle diameter and hardness and sediment supply rate on hydro-abrasion rate and pattern. The focus is on the latter two parameters, which were not previously and systematically investigated in flume studies at low aspect ratios. The abrasion depths were measured using a 3D high precision laser scanner. Results revealed that abrasion rate increases with sediment supply rate with maximum abrasion occurring when sediment transport capacity is reached. Harder sediment leads to higher abrasion rates. Abrasion patterns depend on the aspect ratio, causing the formation of one or two incision channels. Three cover effect functions, namely, linear, exponential, and probabilistic were compared to the data. The exponential cover function provides the best representation of the present data. These findings provide new insights into the physical mechanisms of hydro-abrasion under varying hydraulic, sediment, and bed material conditions. This research contributes to the enhancement of a well-known mechanistic saltation abrasion predictive model by incorporating the proposed hardness and cover equations, which is detailed separately in the accompanying paper as Part 2.

水力磨损是指固体表面的物质逐渐流失，主要是由机械应力引起的，主要是由流水中泥沙跳跃的影响造成的。由于高流速和高输沙率，堰、溢洪道、导流隧洞，特别是泥沙绕道隧洞（sbt）等水工结构经历了显著的水力磨损。水力磨损过程在水利工程中至关重要，在水利工程中，材料损失会导致结构损坏和昂贵的维修费用；在地貌学中，水力磨损过程会导致基岩切口，并随着时间的推移影响景观的演变。本研究旨在增进水蚀力学的知识（第一部分，本论文），并加强机械跳跃水蚀模型（第二部分），用于预测河流和景观演变以及水工建筑物的水蚀。为此，在苏黎世联邦理工学院VAW的一个0.20 m宽、0.7 m深、13.5 m长的实验室水槽中，在超临界流动条件下，系统地进行了聚氨酯泡沫和弱砂浆混合物作为床材的水磨试验。研究了水槽宽流深宽比、接近流弗劳德数、颗粒直径、硬度和输沙率对水磨速率和模式的影响。重点是后两个参数，这两个参数以前没有在低长径比的水槽研究中系统地研究过。使用三维高精度激光扫描仪测量磨损深度。结果表明：磨耗率随输沙量的增加而增加，当输沙量达到最大时磨耗率最大；较硬的沉积物导致较高的磨损率。磨损模式取决于纵横比，导致形成一个或两个切口通道。对数据进行了线性、指数和概率三种覆盖效应函数的比较。指数覆盖函数提供了当前数据的最佳表示。这些发现为不同水力、泥沙和床物质条件下的水力磨损物理机制提供了新的见解。本研究通过纳入所提出的硬度和覆盖方程，有助于增强著名的机械跳跃磨损预测模型，该模型将在随附的论文中作为第2部分单独详细介绍。

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引用次数: 0

Gpu-enhanced 2D simulation of Yanming lake water environment 基于gpu增强的燕明湖水环境二维模拟

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2025.100683

Lu Yang , Jingming Hou , Wangyu Luo

A 2D hydrodynamic and mass transport model was developed in this study, focusing on inorganic nutrients in water and utilizing GPU acceleration to improve simulation efficiency. Compared to traditional water environment models, this model is not only capable of simulating the transport processes of key water quality factors, including the nitrogen cycle, phosphorus cycle, dissolved oxygen balance, and chlorophyll α, but also significantly enhances computational efficiency. It was applied to Yanming Lake No.5 under various water flow conditions, using measured data to ensure accuracy. The results indicated that reliable simulations were provided by the model, accurately reflecting changes in water dynamics and quality. Meanwhile, under the same simulation conditions, its computational efficiency was approximately seven times greater than that of CPU devices. As throughput increased, overall water depth and velocity were found to remain stable, while concentrations of water quality factors gradually decreased, primarily affecting the lake’s entrance. Over time, signs of poor nutrient conditions due to eutrophication were noted in the lake. This model enables detailed simulations of the transport of environmental variables and their interactions, serving as a valuable tool for predicting and preventing water pollution.

本研究以水体中的无机营养物为研究对象，利用GPU加速技术，建立了二维水动力和质量输运模型，提高了模拟效率。与传统水环境模型相比，该模型不仅能够模拟氮循环、磷循环、溶解氧平衡、叶绿素α等关键水质因子的输运过程，而且显著提高了计算效率。应用于燕明5号湖不同水流条件下，采用实测数据保证精度。结果表明，该模型模拟结果可靠，能较准确地反映水动力和水质的变化。同时，在相同的仿真条件下，其计算效率大约是CPU设备的7倍。随着吞吐量的增加，总体水深和流速保持稳定，水质因子浓度逐渐降低，主要影响湖泊入口。随着时间的推移，由于富营养化，湖中出现了营养状况不佳的迹象。该模型能够详细模拟环境变量的传输及其相互作用，是预测和预防水污染的宝贵工具。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of meteorological drought and its characteristics in Northern Thailand from 1980 to 2016 1980 - 2016年泰国北部气象干旱及其特征评价

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2025.100681

Muhammad Farhan Ul Moazzam , Ghani Rahman , Sanghyun Kim , Hyun-Han Kwon , Nurullayev Mirolim Nosirovich

Meteorological drought is characterized by prolonged periods of below-average precipitation and is a major environmental hazard that significantly affects agriculture, water resources and ecosystems. Drought assessment and understanding its patterns are important for effective water management and risk mitigation. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variability and characteristics of meteorological drought in Northern Thailand from 1980 to 2016, using precipitation and temperature data from 22 meteorological stations provided by the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). We used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify drought events and analyze their trends using Spearman’s Rho test. Additionally, we applied Run theory to quantify drought characteristics, including duration, severity and intensity. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive approach, integrating long-term climate data with advanced statistical methods to assess the impact of rising temperatures on drought frequency. The results revealed significant increasing trend in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures across most meteorological stations, contributing to frequent drought events. Notably, severe droughts were observed during 1982–1983, 1986–1987, 1991–1993, 1997–1998, 2004–2005, 2009, and 2014–2016. Thus, these SPEI analysis highlights the growing influence of temperature-driven evapotranspiration which lead to soil moisture loss and crop failure. The insights from this study emphasizes on the need of proactive drought risk management and adaptation strategies particularly for agriculture sector. Future research should focus on assessing the socio-economic impacts of drought and developing predictive models for improved mitigation planning.

气象干旱的特点是降水长期低于平均水平，是严重影响农业、水资源和生态系统的主要环境灾害。干旱评估和了解其模式对于有效的水资源管理和减轻风险至关重要。利用泰国气象局（TMD）提供的22个气象站的降水和温度资料，对1980 - 2016年泰国北部气象干旱的时空变化特征进行了研究。采用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）识别干旱事件，并采用Spearman’s Rho检验分析干旱事件的趋势。此外，我们应用Run理论来量化干旱特征，包括持续时间、严重程度和强度。该研究的新颖之处在于其综合方法，将长期气候数据与先进的统计方法相结合，以评估温度上升对干旱频率的影响。结果显示，大部分气象站的平均、最低和最高气温呈显著上升趋势，导致干旱事件频繁发生。值得注意的是，1982-1983年、1986-1987年、1991-1993年、1997-1998年、2004-2005年、2009年和2014-2016年出现了严重干旱。因此，这些SPEI分析强调了温度驱动的蒸散发的影响越来越大，导致土壤水分流失和作物歉收。这项研究的见解强调了主动干旱风险管理和适应战略的必要性，特别是对农业部门而言。今后的研究应侧重于评估干旱的社会经济影响，并为改进减灾规划开发预测模型。

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引用次数: 0

A conceptual framework for impact assessment of anthropogenic activities on drought propagation 人为活动对干旱传播影响评价的概念框架

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2025.100680

Muhammad Laraib , Muhammad Waseem , Mudassar Iqbal , Jiaqing Xiao , Tao Yang , Pengfei Shi , Waqas Ul Hussan , Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq

This research addresses a critical gap in understanding the complex relationship between anthropogenic activities and drought propagation, acknowledging the growing global concern over water scarcity. It aims to enhance the understanding of anthropogenic drivers influencing drought dynamics by proposing a conceptual framework for assessing their impacts. The proposed framework encompasses hydrological modeling using the SWAT model during both disturbed and undisturbed periods, as well as assessments of meteorological and hydrological droughts. Additionally, it includes a probabilistic analysis utilizing a copula-based approach to evaluate drought propagation probabilities and an assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic activities. The performance of the SWAT model, evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the Coefficient of determination (R²), yielded values of 0.84 and 0.86 during calibration, and 0.81 and 0.80 during validation. Additionally, the Pettitt test, used to identify streamflow change points, indicated distinct periods of undisturbed and disturbed conditions. Analysis of the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) revealed that 25.77% of the undisturbed period experienced mild drought, 9.39% moderate drought, and 3.13% severe drought. In contrast, the disturbed period saw 41.67% mild drought, 11.76% moderate drought, and 7.35% severe drought. Moreover, the analysis of drought propagation time revealed that anthropogenic activities significantly influenced variations in hydrological drought (HD) and meteorological drought (MD) during the propagation of HD. The undisturbed period displayed a 46% increase in meteorological drought thresholds and severity levels, while the disturbed period exhibited more substantial variations, ranging from 3% to 64%. These findings have significant real-world implications, highlighting that anthropogenic activities intensify drought risks and alter the natural patterns of drought propagation. Overall, the insights gained from this study can support the development of evidence-based policies and adaptive management practices that enhance drought preparedness and resilience in regions vulnerable to water scarcity.

这项研究填补了理解人类活动与干旱传播之间复杂关系的一个关键空白，承认了全球对水资源短缺的日益关注。它旨在通过提出评估其影响的概念框架，加强对影响干旱动态的人为驱动因素的理解。提议的框架包括在受干扰和未受干扰期间使用SWAT模型进行水文建模，以及对气象和水文干旱的评估。此外，它还包括利用基于copula的方法评估干旱传播概率的概率分析和对人为活动影响的评估。使用Nash-Sutcliffe效率（NSE）和决定系数（R2）评估SWAT模型的性能，在校准时产生的值为0.84和0.86，在验证时产生的值为0.81和0.80。此外，用于确定流量变化点的Pettitt测试显示了不同时期的未受干扰和受干扰条件。径流干旱指数（SDI）分析显示，未受干扰期轻度干旱占25.77%，中度干旱占9.39%，重度干旱占3.13%。干扰期轻度干旱发生率为41.67%，中度干旱发生率为11.76%，重度干旱发生率为7.35%。此外，干旱传播时间分析表明，在干旱传播期间，人为活动显著影响了水文干旱（HD）和气象干旱（MD）的变化。未受干扰期的气象干旱阈值和严重程度增加了46%，而受干扰期的变化幅度更大，在3% ~ 64%之间。这些发现具有重要的现实意义，强调人类活动加剧了干旱风险并改变了干旱传播的自然模式。总的来说，从这项研究中获得的见解可以支持制定基于证据的政策和适应性管理实践，以加强易受缺水影响地区的抗旱准备和抗旱能力。

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引用次数: 0

The variation pattern and estimation method of backwater length at the reservoir of delta deposition 三角洲沉积储层回水长度变化规律及估算方法

IF 2.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydro-environment Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2025.100682

Kaixuan Wang, Minghui Yu, Yuying Shao, Jinlan Mo, Qianrou Chen

The interaction of sedimentation and backwater in the reservoir area after the operation of the reservoir causes the backwater and sedimentation to continuously extend upstream. Studying the variation pattern of backwater length after reservoir sedimentation is of significant importance for assessing the reservoir inundation range. Based on the calculation of backwater after sedimentation at the BDa Reservoir, the variations in the backwater under the delta deposition at the reservoir were revealed. During the flood season, there are two inflection points in the backwater surface profile, occurring respectively near the pivot point and starting point of the delta. The impact of deposition thickness on the rise in backwater elevation is mainly reflected at the topset reach of the delta. Furthermore, the depth calculation formulas of foreset reach, topset reach, and sedimentation-affected reach of the delta deposition were established. Based on these, factors influencing the backwater length under delta deposition were identified as the depth at the dam, the distance from the pivot point to the dam, and the inlet discharge. Then a rapid estimation method for backwater length under delta deposition was proposed and validated. Results provide a rapid estimation of reservoir backwater length, which can prevent the protected projects from being inundated by the reservoir backwater.

水库运行后，库区的淤积与回水相互作用，导致淤积与回水不断向上游延伸。研究水库淤积后回水长度的变化规律，对水库淹没范围的评估具有重要意义。通过对渤达水库沉积后回水的计算，揭示了三角洲沉积作用下水库回水的变化规律。汛期回水面剖面有两个拐点，分别出现在三角洲支点和起点附近。沉积厚度对回水高程上升的影响主要体现在三角洲顶部。在此基础上，建立了三角洲沉积前置河段、上置河段和受沉积影响河段的深度计算公式。在此基础上，确定了三角洲沉积条件下影响回水长度的因素为坝体深度、枢纽点到坝体的距离和进水口流量。在此基础上，提出并验证了三角洲沉积条件下回水长度的快速估计方法。结果提供了水库回水长度的快速估计，可以防止保护工程被水库回水淹没。

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引用次数: 0