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The effects of climate change and regional water supply capacity on integrated drought risk 气候变化和区域供水能力对综合干旱风险的影响
IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.003

Due to climate change, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought have increased. In addition, local water supply capacity has not met water demand in many regions, which will eventually lead to serious water shortages. To mitigate the effects of drought on sustainable water use, it is necessary to understand how climate change affects regional water supply capacity and drought risk. To this end, this study evaluated the drought response capacity of regional water supply systems and assessed the comprehensive drought risk in terms of drought hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. To avoid subjectivity in risk analysis, structural equation modeling was used to select primary indicators and probability and statistical methods were used to assign weights to the indicators. The changes in drought risk in different climate change scenarios were assessed using sensitivity analyses. The overall results indicate that the future drought risks in Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, Jeolla, and Gangwon are 18, 12, 13, 9, and 10% higher, respectively, than the current risk level. The sensitivity analyses showed that Jinju in Gyeongsang province, which has a high drought response capacity, had the largest decreasing rate in drought risk. The quantified changes in drought risk under future climate change scenarios will be useful for identifying areas with a high drought risk and making decisions about drought mitigation under climate change.

由于气候变化,气象干旱的频率和持续时间都有所增加。此外,许多地区的当地供水能力无法满足用水需求,最终将导致严重缺水。为了减轻干旱对可持续用水的影响,有必要了解气候变化如何影响地区供水能力和干旱风险。为此,本研究评估了地区供水系统的干旱应对能力,并从干旱危害、脆弱性和应对能力三个方面评估了综合干旱风险。为避免风险分析的主观性,采用结构方程模型来选择主要指标,并使用概率和统计方法来分配指标权重。利用敏感性分析评估了不同气候变化情景下干旱风险的变化。总体结果表明,京畿、庆尚、忠清、全罗和江原的未来干旱风险分别比当前风险水平高出 18%、12%、13%、9% 和 10%。敏感性分析表明,抗旱能力较强的庆尚南道晋州的干旱风险下降幅度最大。未来气候变化情景下干旱风险的量化变化将有助于确定干旱风险较高的地区,并在气候变化下做出缓解干旱的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Runoff prediction based on the IGWOLSTM model: Achieving accurate flood forecasting and emergency management 基于 IGWOLSTM 模型的径流预测:实现准确的洪水预报和应急管理
IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.002

With the acceleration of global climate change and urbanization, the frequency and impact of flood disasters are increasing year by year, making flood emergency management increasingly crucial for safeguarding people’s lives, property, and societal stability. To enhance the accuracy of river flow prediction, this study employs an Improved Gray Wolf Optimization Algorithm (IGWO) to optimize parameters of the Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm significantly improves the accuracy of river flow prediction, achieving higher precision and better generalization compared to traditional machine learning algorithms. This method provides more reliable data support for flood warning systems, aiding in the accurate prediction of flood occurrence timing and intensity, thereby providing scientific basis for flood prevention and mitigation efforts. Moreover, this approach supports hydro-logical research, enhancing understanding of river water cycle processes and ecosystem changes.

随着全球气候变化和城市化进程的加快,洪水灾害的发生频率和影响范围逐年增大,洪水应急管理对保障人民生命财产安全和社会稳定的重要性日益凸显。为了提高河流流量预测的准确性,本研究采用改进的灰狼优化算法(IGWO)来优化长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型的参数。实验结果表明,与传统的机器学习算法相比,所提出的算法显著提高了河流流量预测的准确性,实现了更高的精度和更好的泛化。该方法为洪水预警系统提供了更可靠的数据支持,有助于准确预测洪水发生的时间和强度,从而为防洪减灾工作提供科学依据。此外,这种方法还有助于水文逻辑研究,加深对河流水循环过程和生态系统变化的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing non-newtonian fluid modeling: A novel extension of the cross flow curve model 加强非牛顿流体建模:横流曲线模型的新扩展
IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.001

A number of viscosity and flow curve models can be used to numerically investigate the non-Newtonian behavior of fluids. Although particle size, grain size distribution and concentration play a crucial role in determining the viscosity and flow behavior of suspensions and colloidal systems, they are either ignored or considered indirectly in almost all models. We present a mathematical extension of the widely used Cross flow curve model to account for the effect of concentration and particle size in modeling viscosity and flow curves. In particular, this study takes into account a variable total number of individual particles in unit volume, which is assumed to be constant in other models. The proposed extension allows the flow curve to model suspensions that are typically shear-thinning but can also be Newtonian, or shear-thickening for at different shear rates and concentrations. These considerations provide insight into studying and designing suspensions, colloidal systems, and other complex fluid–solid interactions.

许多粘度和流动曲线模型可用于对流体的非牛顿行为进行数值研究。虽然粒度、粒度分布和浓度在决定悬浮液和胶体系统的粘度和流动行为方面起着至关重要的作用,但几乎所有模型都忽略或间接考虑了它们。我们对广泛使用的 Cross 流动曲线模型进行了数学扩展,以考虑浓度和粒度对粘度和流动曲线建模的影响。特别是,这项研究考虑到了单位体积内可变的单个颗粒总数,而在其他模型中,这一总数被假定为常数。拟议的扩展使流动曲线能够模拟典型的剪切稀化悬浮液,但也可以是牛顿型悬浮液,或在不同剪切速率和浓度下的剪切增稠型悬浮液。这些考虑因素为研究和设计悬浮液、胶体系统和其他复杂的流固相互作用提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Self-aeration on large dam spillways during major floods” [J. Hydro-Environ. Res. 54 (2024) 26–36] 对 "大洪水期间大型水坝溢洪道的自曝气 "的更正[J. Hydro-Environ. Res. 54 (2024) 26-36]
IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.07.001
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of river recreation safety using hydrodynamic model and fuzzy logic: A spatial river recreational index approach 利用水动力模型和模糊逻辑评估河流娱乐安全:空间河流娱乐指数方法
IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.06.002
Siyoon Kwon , Il Won Seo , Byunguk Kim , Sung Hyun Jung , Young Do Kim

As demands for river recreational activities increases, assessing their safety has become essential to prevent accidents. The hydraulic conditions of the river critically influence the safety of in-water activities, such as sailing, paddling, and boating. Localized hazardous areas can emerge due to the spatial variability of hydraulic phenomena. This potential risk necessitates providing information about safe zones. Therefore, this study proposes a spatial river recreational index (SRRI) to assess the safety of river recreational activities over river spaces based on hydraulic factors. We reproduce the spatial distribution of the hydraulic parameters under various discharge conditions using a 3D hydrodynamic model and then estimate the SRRI by integrating all membership degrees and weights of these parameters using fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE). The application of the SRRI in the confluence of the Nakdong-Guemho River, South Korea, reveals that each hydraulic parameter contributes differently to safety levels, depending on discharge and morphological conditions. Specifically, the flow direction substantially decreases safety near the river confluence, whereas the water depth plays an important role in the meandering reach of the Nakdong River. Under high-flow conditions, velocity becomes a critical factor, especially for nonpowered activities (sailing and paddling/wading). The SRRI indicates that sailing is unsafe in the main flow zone and near the river confluence due to high sensitivity to discharge changes. In contrast, paddling/wading and leisure boating are less sensitive to discharge changes, allowing these activities to be partly allowable even under high-flow conditions, except in the deep-water zones of meandering reach. These results suggest that the SRRI can assist water recreational activity users in safely engaging in river recreational activities by providing spatial safety information based on various hydraulic conditions.

随着人们对河流娱乐活动需求的增加,对其安全性进行评估已成为防止事故发生的关键。河流的水力条件对帆船、划桨和划船等水上活动的安全性有着至关重要的影响。由于水力现象的空间变化,可能会出现局部危险区域。这种潜在的风险要求提供有关安全区域的信息。因此,本研究提出了一种空间河流娱乐指数(SRRI),根据水力因素评估河流空间娱乐活动的安全性。我们利用三维水动力模型再现了各种排放条件下水力参数的空间分布,然后利用模糊综合评价(FSE)对这些参数的所有成员度和权重进行整合,从而估算出 SRRI。SRRI 在韩国洛东江-金湖江汇合处的应用表明,根据排水量和形态条件的不同,每个水力参数对安全等级的影响也不同。具体来说,在河道汇合处附近,水流方向会大大降低安全系数,而在洛东江的蜿蜒河段,水深则起着重要作用。在大流量条件下,流速成为一个关键因素,尤其是对于非动力活动(帆船和划桨/涉水)而言。SRRI 表明,由于对排水量变化的高度敏感性,在主流区和河流汇合点附近航行是不安全的。相比之下,划船/涉水和休闲划船对排水量变化的敏感度较低,因此即使在大流量条件下,这些活动也可以部分进行,但蜿蜒河段的深水区除外。这些结果表明,通过提供基于各种水力条件的空间安全信息,SRRI 可以帮助水上娱乐活动使用者安全地从事河流娱乐活动。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of density difference, discharge ratio and wind on the mixing at large river confluence 密度差、排流比和风力对大河汇流处混合的影响
IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.06.001
Minjae Lee , Yong Sung Park , Joo Suk Ko , Suhyeok Choi , Siwan Lyu , Byunguk Kim

Numerical simulations for a large river confluence were conducted to comprehend the influences of three factors: density difference, discharge ratio, and wind shear on tributary flow dispersion. The present study focused on the confluence channel of the Nakdong River and the Yangsan Stream in South Korea, with simulation conditions selected based on realistic conditions. Numerical results revealed that tributary flow can disperse upstream under high discharge ratio conditions, which becomes stronger with density stratification. In particular, when the tributary flow is denser than the mainstream, bathymetry around the junction determines the flowing direction of the density current. Thus, understanding tributary flow dispersion under varying conditions is vital due to its influence not only downstream but also upstream of the confluence. Additionally, wind shear impact on the mixing between mainstream and tributary flow is notable but less significant than density difference or discharge ratio.

为了解密度差、排流比和风切变三个因素对支流水流扩散的影响,对大型河流汇流处进行了数值模拟。本研究以韩国洛东江和梁山川的汇流河道为研究对象,模拟条件根据实际情况选择。数值结果表明,在高排流比条件下,支流会向上游发散,密度分层会使发散更强。特别是,当支流的密度高于主流时,交界处周围的水深决定了密度流的流动方向。因此,了解支流在不同条件下的分散情况至关重要,因为它不仅会影响下游,还会影响汇合点上游。此外,风切变对主流和支流之间的混合也有显著影响,但不如密度差或排水比重要。
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引用次数: 0
Field monitoring and modelling of sediment transport, hydraulics and hydroabrasion at Sediment Bypass Tunnels 沉积物旁路隧道沉积物迁移、水力学和水力侵蚀的实地监测与建模
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.05.002
Ismail Albayrak , Romeo Arnold , Dila Demiral , Mohammadreza Maddahi , Robert M. Boes

Sediment Bypass Tunnels (SBTs) are proven to be an effective measure to reduce or even stop reservoir sedimentation by bypassing sediment laden flows around reservoir dams to the downstream river reach. They are mostly used in Switzerland, Japan, and Taiwan. However, hydraulic and sedimentological operating conditions and the resistance of the invert materials against hydroabrasive erosion affect their cost-effectiveness. Hydroabrasion is a pressing issue at SBTs, other hydraulic structures and steep bedrock rivers exposed to high sediment transport rates under supercritical flow conditions. The present study was therefore conducted to address this issue by aiming at improving knowledge on abrasion mechanics and calibrating a mechanistic saltation abrasion model enhanced by Demiral-Yüzügüllü (2021). To this end, the abrasion resistance of fourteen different invert materials installed at Solis, Pfaffensprung and Runcahez SBTs in Switzerland was quantified by annual 3D laser scanning and the hydraulic conditions and sediment transport rates were regularly monitored between 2017 and 2021. The analysis of invert scans and hydraulic conditions revealed that Prandtl’s first and second kinds of secondary currents occurring in the bends and straight sections of the SBTs, respectively, and the observed abrasion patterns were strongly interrelated. The tested potassium aluminate cement and steel fibre concretes, granite, cast basalt and steel plates had better abrasion resistance against impact of sediment-laden flows compared to other materials. Sediment mineralogical composition i.e., bulk hardness relative to the invert material properties significantly affected hydroabrasion. The enhanced abrasion prediction model was calibrated with the present data and a quasi-constant abrasion coefficient of kv = (4.8 ± 2.2) × 104 was obtained. The enhanced model is well-suited for both laboratory and field scales. The present findings will contribute to the sustainable utilization and operational safety of hydraulic structures, optimization of SBT and reservoir operations regarding bypassing efficiency and reservoir lifetime and modelling of bedrock river erosion.

沉积物旁路隧道(SBT)通过将水库大坝周围的沉积物水流旁路至下游河段,被证明是减少甚至阻止水库沉积的有效措施。它们主要用于瑞士、日本和台湾。然而,水力和沉积物的运行条件以及反向材料对水力侵蚀的抵抗力都会影响其成本效益。在超临界水流条件下,水力侵蚀是 SBT、其他水力结构和陡峭基岩河流面临的一个紧迫问题。因此,为了解决这一问题,我们开展了本项研究,旨在提高对磨损力学的认识,并校准一个由......和......增强的力学盐化磨损模型。为此,在 2017 年至 2021 年期间,通过每年的三维激光扫描,对安装在瑞士索利斯、普法芬斯普隆和伦卡赫斯地下水自动监测站的 14 种不同反向材料的耐磨性进行了量化,并对水力条件和沉积物迁移率进行了定期监测。对反向扫描和水力条件的分析表明,SBT 弯道和直道段分别出现的普朗特第一和第二种次生流与观测到的磨损模式密切相关。与其他材料相比,经测试的铝酸钾水泥和钢纤维混凝土、花岗岩、玄武岩铸件和钢板在含泥沙水流的冲击下具有更好的耐磨性。沉积物矿物成分(即相对于反向材料特性的体积硬度)对水力磨损有显著影响。根据目前的数据对增强型磨损预测模型进行了校准,得到的准恒定磨损系数为 = (4.8 ± 2.2) × 10。增强型模型非常适合实验室和现场规模。本研究结果将有助于水力结构的可持续利用和运行安全、SBT 和水库运行的旁路效率和水库寿命的优化以及基岩河流侵蚀的建模。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring spatiotemporal changes in urban flood vulnerability of Peninsular Malaysia from satellite nighttime light data 从卫星夜间光照数据监测马来西亚半岛城市洪水脆弱性的时空变化
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.05.003
Ghaith Falah Ziarh , Eun-Sung Chung , Ashraf Dewan , Md Asaduzzaman , Mohammed Magdy Hamed , Zafar Iqbal , Shamsuddin Shahid

Urban flood vulnerability monitoring requires a large amount of socioeconomic and environmental data collected at regular time intervals. However, collecting such a large volume of data poses a significant constraint in assessing changes in flood vulnerability. This study proposed a novel method to monitor spatiotemporal changes in urban flood vulnerability from satellite nighttime light (NTL) data. Peninsular Malaysia was chosen as the research region as floods are the most devastating and recurrent phenomena in the region. The study developed a flood vulnerability index (FVI) based on socioeconomic and environmental data from a single year. This FVI was then linked to NTL data using an Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) machine learning algorithm. The model was calibrated and validated with administrative unit scale data and subsequently used to predict FVI at a spatial resolution of 10 km for 2000–2018 using NTL data. Finally, changes in estimated FVI at different grid points were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall trend method to determine changes in flood vulnerability over time and space. Results showed a nonlinear relationship between NTL and flood vulnerability factors such as population density, Gini coefficient, and percentage of foreign nationals. The ANFIS technique performed well in estimating FVI from NTL data with a normalized root-mean-square error of 0.68 and Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.73. The FVI revealed a high vulnerability in the urbanized western coastal region (FVI ∼ 0.5 to 0.54), which matches well with major contributing regions to flood losses in Peninsular Malaysia. Trend assessment showed a significant increase in flood vulnerability in the study area from 2000 to 2018. The spatial distribution of the trend indicated an increase in FVI in the urbanized coastal plains, particularly in rapidly developing western and southern urban regions. The results indicate the potential of the technique in urban flood vulnerability assessment using freely available satellite NTL data.

城市洪水脆弱性监测需要定期收集大量的社会经济和环境数据。然而,收集如此大量的数据对评估洪水脆弱性的变化造成了很大的限制。本研究提出了一种新方法,利用卫星夜光(NTL)数据监测城市洪水脆弱性的时空变化。马来西亚半岛被选为研究地区,因为洪水是该地区最具破坏性且经常发生的现象。该研究根据单一年份的社会经济和环境数据制定了洪水脆弱性指数(FVI)。然后,利用自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)机器学习算法将该 FVI 与 NTL 数据联系起来。利用行政单位规模的数据对模型进行了校准和验证,随后利用 NTL 数据以 10 千米的空间分辨率预测了 2000-2018 年的森林植被覆盖率。最后,使用 Mann-Kendall 趋势法评估了不同网格点上估计的洪水脆弱性指数的变化,以确定洪水脆弱性在时间和空间上的变化。结果显示,NTL 与人口密度、基尼系数和外国公民比例等洪水脆弱性因素之间存在非线性关系。ANFIS 技术在根据 NTL 数据估算 FVI 方面表现出色,归一化均方根误差为 0.68,Kling-Gupta 效率为 0.73。洪水脆弱性指数显示,西部沿海城市化地区的洪水脆弱性较高(洪水脆弱性指数在 0.5 至 0.54 之间),这与马来西亚半岛洪水损失的主要成因地区非常吻合。趋势评估显示,从 2000 年到 2018 年,研究区域的洪水脆弱性显著增加。趋势的空间分布表明,城市化沿海平原的洪水脆弱性指数有所上升,尤其是在快速发展的西部和南部城市地区。结果表明,该技术在利用免费提供的卫星近地轨道数据进行城市洪水脆弱性评估方面具有潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental investigation of the total flow resistance in emergent and submerged rigid canopy flows 新兴和沉没刚性冠层流中总流阻的实验研究
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.05.001
Emre Haspolat, Mete Koken

In canopy flows, flow resistance mainly originates from vegetation drag and depends on vegetation characteristics and flow conditions. In the present study, a series of experiments were performed in various hydraulic scenarios with high stem Reynolds numbers (2641 Red 17333) using relatively sparse rigid canopies, represented with four different dimensionless vegetation densities (0.0044, 0.0098, 0.0174 and 0.0392), on a smooth bed. A novel drag plate mechanism was developed to measure the total flow resistance due to the emergent and submerged vegetation arrays in a staggered pattern under subcritical flow conditions. Manning’s roughness coefficient and Darcy–Weisbach friction factor were adopted to represent the total flow resistance in the analyses. Simple empirical relationships based on roughness concentration and submergence ratio were derived to determine the total flow resistance parameters within a broad range of stem Reynolds numbers. Although relationships were proposed in a simple form to be used for direct practical applications, they show similar or better performance in the prediction of total flow resistance parameters than the existing equations in the literature, which require considerable computational effort. Additionally, analyses demonstrated that the results of the present study and those of similar studies regarding canopy flow resistance are in good agreement. Accordingly, the novel drag plate looks promising for measuring flow resistance due to vegetation and bed conditions similar to those in nature.

在冠层流中,流动阻力主要来自植被阻力,并取决于植被特性和流动条件。在本研究中,使用相对稀疏的刚性树冠,在光滑河床上以四种不同的无量纲植被密度(0.0044、0.0098、0.0174 和 0.0392)表示,在高茎杆雷诺数(2641 ≤ Red ≤ 17333)的各种水力情况下进行了一系列实验。开发了一种新型阻力板机制,用于测量在次临界流条件下交错排列的出水和沉水植被阵列造成的总流阻。分析中采用了曼宁粗糙度系数和达西-韦斯巴赫摩擦因数来表示总流阻。根据粗糙度集中度和淹没率推导出简单的经验关系,以确定在广泛的干流雷诺数范围内的总流阻参数。虽然这些关系以简单的形式提出,可直接用于实际应用,但在预测总流阻参数方面,它们与文献中需要大量计算工作的现有方程相比,表现出相似或更好的性能。此外,分析表明,本研究和类似研究在冠层流动阻力方面的结果非常一致。因此,新型阻力板在测量植被和类似于自然界的床面条件引起的流动阻力方面很有前景。
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引用次数: 0
Self-aeration on large dam spillways during major floods 大洪水期间大型水坝溢洪道的自曝气功能
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2024.03.002
Hubert Chanson

In a spillway chute flow, the upstream flow is typically non-aerated and the flow becomes self-aerated when the turbulent stresses acting next to the water surface exceeds the combined resistance of gravity and surface tension. The inception region of air entrainment is a rapidly-varied region characterised by the transition from a monophase water to two-phase air–water flow. In this contribution, field observations were conducted at large dam spillways during major flood events, with a focus on prototype data for discharges between 100 m3/s and 6,000 m3/s and Reynolds numbers between 2.6 × 106 to 1.1 × 108. The onset of self-aeration was a complicated three-dimensional transient process, and the dimensionless location of the inception region was a function of the Reynolds number. Surface velocities obtained with an optical technique showed that the streamwise surface velocities were close to theoretical estimates, and the streamwise surface turbulent intensities in excess of 100 %, consistent with self-aerated measurements in laboratory. The current findings yield a couple of seminal questions: (a) what do we know about prototype spillway operation during major floods? (b) how large the Reynolds number of a prototype flow needs to be truly representative of large dam spillway self-aerated flows during major flood events?

在溢流槽水流中,上游水流通常是非气流,当作用在水面附近的湍流应力超过重力和表面张力的综合阻力时,水流就会自发气流。空气夹带的起始区域是一个快速变化的区域,其特点是从单相水流过渡到气水两相流。在本文中,我们在大洪水期间对大型水坝溢洪道进行了实地观测,重点是流量在 100 立方米/秒至 6,000 立方米/秒之间、雷诺数在 2.6 × 106 至 1.1 × 108 之间的原型数据。自曝气的起始是一个复杂的三维瞬态过程,起始区域的无量纲位置是雷诺数的函数。利用光学技术获得的表面速度显示,流向表面速度接近理论估计值,流向表面湍流强度超过 100%,与实验室自曝气测量结果一致。目前的研究结果提出了几个重要问题:(a) 我们对大洪水期间原型溢洪道的运行了解多少?(b) 原型水流的雷诺数需要多大才能真正代表大洪水期间大型水坝溢洪道的自曝流?
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Hydro-environment Research
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