Seasonal Heavy Rain Forecasting Method

Abstract

In this study, we study the technique for predicting heavy / non-rain rainfall after 6 hours from the present using the values of the weather attributes. Through this study, we investigated whether each attribute value is influenced by a specific pattern of weather maps representing heavy and non-heavy rains or seasonally when making heavy / non-heavy forecasts. For the experiment, a 20-year cumulative weather map was learned with Support Vector Machine (SVM) and tested using a set of correct answers for heavy rain and heavy rain. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the heavy rain prediction of SVM showed an accuracy rate of up to 70%, and that it was seasonal variation rather than a specific pattern that influenced the prediction.