Innovation on the web: the end of the S-curve?

Abstract

Abstract Rigorous research into the historical past of Web technology-driven innovation becomes timely as technological growth and forecasting are attracting popular interest. Drawing on economic and management literature relating to the typical trends of technological innovation, we examine the long-term development of Web technology in a theoretically informed and empirical manner. An original longitudinal dataset of 20,493 Web-related US patents is used to trace the growth curve of Web technology between the years of 1990 through 2013. We find that the accumulation of corporate Web inventions followed an S-shaped curve which shifted to linear growth after year 2004. This transition is unusual in relation to the traditional S-curve model of technological development that typically approaches a limit. The point of inflection on the S-curve coincided reasonably closely with the timing of the dot-com crash in year 2000. Moreover, we find a complex bi-directional relationship between patenting rates in Web technology and movements in the NASDAQ composite stock index. The implications of these results are discussed in theoretical and practical terms for sustained technological growth. Specific recommendations for different stakeholders in commercial Web development are included.