Modeling and Forecasting the Death Trend Due to Respiratory System Diseases using the LeeCarter model in Northern Iran

Abstract

"Background and Aim: Respiratory system diseases (RSDs) represent the major burden of disease, including death worldwide. The main purpose of this study was to model and forecast the death rate due to diseases of the respiratory system Based on Lee Carter's model during the years 2011-2028. Methods: The type of study was a secondary analysis based on available data. The statistical population included all deaths registered in the health department of Golestan University of Medical Sciences during the years 2011-2018. Data analysis was performed using Demography 18.1 and StMoMo packages in R3.6.2 software. Results: The death rate due to RSDs in 2011 in the total population was 0.22, in women 0.19, and in men 0.25 per 1000 population. The death rate due to these diseases shows an increasing trend in 2018 to 0.33 in the total population, 0.29 in women, and 0.36 in men per 1000 population. In general, the death rate due to these diseases increased by approximately 0.10 per 1000 population from the years 2011 to 2018. It is predicted that the increasing trend of deaths due to RSDs will continue and in 2028 it will reach 4.88 in the total population, 3.56 in women, and 2.27 in men per 1000 population. Conclusions: Our findings show a significant increase in respiratory disease mortality over the past eight years. A combination of prevention and treatment strategies through urban planning, including the control of environmental pollutants and environmental health programs, is essential for the effective control of respiratory diseases "