Democratization Boost or Bust? Electoral Turnout After Democratic Transitions

IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Comparative Political Studies Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI:10.1177/00104140231194922
Roman-Gabriel Olar
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Abstract

How do democratization processes affect voter turnout in new democracies? Existing work points to an expected boost in electoral turnout after democratization as newly democratic citizens are euphoric to exert newly democratic freedoms or because they developed new political attitudes and behaviours by mobilizing for democracy. While intuitive and normatively appealing, these explanations have not been theoretically nor empirically scrutinized within the literature. This paper develops and tests novel theoretical expectations on the processes and legacies of democratization that impact voter turnout in new democracies. Using electoral turnout data from 1086 national elections between 1946 and 2015, and turnout survey data of over 1 million respondents between 1982 and 2015, we find that the boost in voter turnout (1) exists only for the first election after transition, (2) its effect depends on the life cycle during which individuals experienced the transition and (3) it is less dependent on transition type.
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民主化是繁荣还是萧条?民主过渡后的投票率
民主化进程如何影响新民主国家的选民投票率?现有的研究表明,由于新民主的公民乐于行使新的民主自由,或者因为他们通过动员民主发展了新的政治态度和行为,预计民主化后的投票率将会提高。虽然直观和规范的吸引力,这些解释没有在理论上或经验的文献中仔细审查。本文发展并检验了影响新民主国家选民投票率的民主化进程和遗产的新理论期望。利用1946年至2015年1086次全国选举的投票率数据,以及1982年至2015年超过100万受访者的投票率调查数据,我们发现:(1)选民投票率的提升只存在于转型后的第一次选举中,(2)其影响取决于个体经历转型的生命周期,(3)对转型类型的依赖较小。
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来源期刊
Comparative Political Studies
Comparative Political Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
4.00%
发文量
69
期刊介绍: Comparative Political Studies is a journal of social and political science which publishes scholarly work on comparative politics at both the cross-national and intra-national levels. We are particularly interested in articles which have an innovative theoretical argument and are based on sound and original empirical research. We also encourage submissions about comparative methodology, particularly when methodological arguments are closely linked with substantive issues in the field.
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