Population control, technology, and economic growth

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of China's population control policy on its economic transitions and long-run equilibrium theoretically and quantitatively. The model-predicted technological progress is assumed to be driven by population size and education level. With population control, the total number of children decreases; however, the average education level increases. Since the overall effect on technological progress is ambiguous, we performed a quantitative analysis of the model. The results demonstrate that population, technological progress, and income per capita move in endogenous cycles. The impact of China's population control policy depends on the timing of its implementation.