{"title":"Reducing Officer-Involved Deaths of Civilians in Urban Areas: Forecasting the Effects of Departmental Policies","authors":"James D. Kelsay, Ian A. Silver, Leah C. Butler","doi":"10.1177/21533687231167607","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Recent police-involved deaths of Black civilians have sparked public outcry and demand for police reforms. However, many departmental policies intended to reduce the lethal use-of-force by police officers lack empirical support for their effectiveness. To address this shortcoming, a Bayesian random intercept model is used to forecast the effects of eight departmental policies on the number of police-involved civilian deaths across 66 police departments. Results suggest that although several policies are associated with a reduction in officer-involved deaths of civilians in some police departments, they are unlikely to eliminate officer-involved deaths completely. Specifically, we observed that introducing additional departmental policies would only reduce the number of officer-involved deaths by approximately 5 to 10. Moreover, variation in the baseline number of officer-involved deaths and the effectiveness of these policies existed between the 66 police departments. The results suggest that de-escalation training, ban on chokeholds, comprehensive reporting, restrictions on foot pursuit, restrictions on vehicle pursuit, community surveys, and problem-oriented policies could reduce the number of officer-involved civilian deaths. Nevertheless, variation in the number of police-involved deaths of civilians and differential effects of policies across agencies suggests a more tailored solution, and additional research is needed to address this crisis.","PeriodicalId":45275,"journal":{"name":"Race and Justice","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Race and Justice","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/21533687231167607","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Recent police-involved deaths of Black civilians have sparked public outcry and demand for police reforms. However, many departmental policies intended to reduce the lethal use-of-force by police officers lack empirical support for their effectiveness. To address this shortcoming, a Bayesian random intercept model is used to forecast the effects of eight departmental policies on the number of police-involved civilian deaths across 66 police departments. Results suggest that although several policies are associated with a reduction in officer-involved deaths of civilians in some police departments, they are unlikely to eliminate officer-involved deaths completely. Specifically, we observed that introducing additional departmental policies would only reduce the number of officer-involved deaths by approximately 5 to 10. Moreover, variation in the baseline number of officer-involved deaths and the effectiveness of these policies existed between the 66 police departments. The results suggest that de-escalation training, ban on chokeholds, comprehensive reporting, restrictions on foot pursuit, restrictions on vehicle pursuit, community surveys, and problem-oriented policies could reduce the number of officer-involved civilian deaths. Nevertheless, variation in the number of police-involved deaths of civilians and differential effects of policies across agencies suggests a more tailored solution, and additional research is needed to address this crisis.
期刊介绍:
Race and Justice: An International Journal serves as a quarterly forum for the best scholarship on race, ethnicity, and justice. Of particular interest to the journal are policy-oriented papers that examine how race/ethnicity intersects with justice system outcomes across the globe. The journal is also open to research that aims to test or expand theoretical perspectives exploring the intersection of race/ethnicity, class, gender, and justice. The journal is open to scholarship from all disciplinary origins and methodological approaches (qualitative and/or quantitative).Topics of interest to Race and Justice include, but are not limited to, research that focuses on: Legislative enactments, Policing Race and Justice, Courts, Sentencing, Corrections (community-based, institutional, reentry concerns), Juvenile Justice, Drugs, Death penalty, Public opinion research, Hate crime, Colonialism, Victimology, Indigenous justice systems.