Morbidity compression and cancer insurance

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Journal of Demographic Economics Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI:10.1017/dem.2023.11

H. Wang, Jack C. Yue, Ting-Chung Chang, Ting‐Chen Chang

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Abstract

Abstract Cancer is among the leading causes of death in the world, with about 10 million deaths, one in every six deaths, related to cancer in 2020. In Taiwan, cancer insurance is the most popular commercial health product. However, the loss ratio of cancer products increases with policy year and exceeds 100% in many insurance companies. In addition, almost all cancer benefits are significantly limited in order to avoid financial insolvency. In this study, we evaluate the risk of cancer insurance from the perspective of morbidity compression. We use the data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Also, we apply the standardized mortality ratio and the Lee-Carter model to estimate the trend of cancer-related values. We find that cancer incidence rates gradually increase with time, which indicates that the assumption of morbidity compression is violated. On the other hand, the mortality rates of cancer patients decrease significantly annually. Thus, length of life with cancer increases, and so does the cancer insurance premium. We suggest that cancer insurance covers only the first five years of medical expenditure after the insured is diagnosed with cancer.

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疾病压缩与癌症保险

摘要癌症是世界上主要的死亡原因之一，2020年约有1000万人死亡，每六人中就有一人死于癌症。在台湾，癌症保险是最受欢迎的商业健康产品。然而，癌症产品的损失率随着保单年份的增加而增加，许多保险公司的损失率超过100%。此外，几乎所有癌症福利都受到极大限制，以避免财务破产。在本研究中，我们从发病率压缩的角度来评估癌症保险的风险。我们使用台湾国家健康保险研究数据库的数据。此外，我们应用标准化死亡率和Lee-Carter模型来估计癌症相关值的趋势。我们发现癌症的发病率随着时间的推移逐渐增加，这表明违背了发病率压缩的假设。另一方面，癌症患者的死亡率每年显著下降。因此，癌症患者的寿命会增加，癌症保险费也会增加。我们建议癌症保险仅涵盖被保险人被诊断为癌症后的前五年医疗费用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Demographic Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and family structures notably respond to economic incentives and in turn affect the economic development of societies. Journal of Demographic Economics welcomes both empirical and theoretical papers on issues relevant to Demographic Economics with a preference for combining abstract economic or demographic models together with data to highlight major mechanisms. The journal was first published in 1929 as Bulletin de l’Institut des Sciences Economiques. It later became known as Louvain Economic Review, and continued till 2014 to publish under this title. In 2015, it moved to Cambridge University Press, increased its international character and changed its focus exclusively to demographic economics.