Ahmed Nafidi, Y. Chakroune, R. Gutiérrez-Sánchez, A. Tridane
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this work, we study the possibility of using a new non-homogeneous stochastic diffusion process based on the Rayleigh density function to model the evolution of the active cases of COVID-19 in Morocco. First, the main probabilistic characteristics and analytic expression of the proposed process are obtained. Next, the parameters of the model are estimated by the maximum likelihood methodology. This estimation and the subsequent statistical inference are based on the discrete observation of the variable x(t) “number of active cases of COVID-19 in Morocco” by using the data for the period of 28 January to 4 March 2022. Then, we analyze the mean functions by using simulated data for fit and forecast purposes. Finally, we explore the illustration of using this new process to fit and forecast the active cases of COVID-19 data.
期刊介绍：
Fractal and Fractional is an international, scientific, peer-reviewed, open access journal that focuses on the study of fractals and fractional calculus, as well as their applications across various fields of science and engineering. It is published monthly online by MDPI and offers a cutting-edge platform for research papers, reviews, and short notes in this specialized area. The journal, identified by ISSN 2504-3110, encourages scientists to submit their experimental and theoretical findings in great detail, with no limits on the length of manuscripts to ensure reproducibility. A key objective is to facilitate the publication of detailed research, including experimental procedures and calculations. "Fractal and Fractional" also stands out for its unique offerings: it warmly welcomes manuscripts related to research proposals and innovative ideas, and allows for the deposition of electronic files containing detailed calculations and experimental protocols as supplementary material.
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