Structural factors affecting global trends towards isolationism and expansionism – A BERGM analysis

Abstract

The first purpose of this study is to define the network parameters that enable systemic analysis of international relations, identifying trends towards isolationism and expansionism. The second is to analyse the factors influencing global trends towards isolationism and expansionism from a structural point of view. The results of a network analysis, including a BERGM, indicate a trend towards isolationism in the economic arena since about 2010; in contrast, a trend towards expansionism has been continuously evident in the political and military sectors throughout the study period. These results also show that the international relations system is formed by reciprocal and triadic relations. In specific, the results reveal that the expansionism trends are influenced by relational substructures centred on importing states.