Politics and equity markets: Evidence from Canada

Abstract

We examine how political power, polarization, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Canada and the US affect the Canadian equity market from 1985 to 2019. We document little evidence of significant liberal government return premiums and the corresponding risk for the overall market and many industry sectors. Only the IT sector witnesses the “second half effect” of election cycles. The Canadian equity market seems to outperform during strong Democratic control in the US, with mixed findings for the individual sectors. Political polarization in the two countries and trade uncertainty have little impact on Canadian equity returns except for the venture, small-cap, and IT sectors from the US polarization. The US EPU index affects the average returns of the overall Canadian equity market and the energy, industrials, retail, and transportation industries, while domestic EPU in Canada reduces the overall equity market, small-cap, and venture firm returns. The alignment of political ideology in the two countries has little impact on the equity market in Canada. Collectively, the results show that the impact of political environments on the Canadian equity market tends to be limited, dynamic, and industry-specific, suggesting that investors should not blindly mix their portfolios with their political views or affiliations.