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Sectoral responses to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the US stock market 美国股市中各行业对经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险的反应
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100874

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on various industries, highlighting their asymmetric effects on sectoral volatility. Furthermore, we investigate the differential effects of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on sectoral volatility, distinguishing between good and bad volatility responses. We find an asymmetric relationship between economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in these industries, with economic policy uncertainty generally exerting a stronger impact on sector-specific volatility compared to geopolitical risk. During normal circumstances since the 2010s, the influence of geopolitical risk on sector-specific volatility has been relatively insignificant. However, both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk have played significant roles in affecting multiple sectors during certain crisis periods, with geopolitical risk demonstrating short-term effects. These findings have important implications for both investors and policymakers. Investors can time positions using insights on policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, while policymakers can identify vulnerable sectors.

我们研究了经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险对各行业的影响,强调了它们对行业波动性的不对称影响。此外,我们还研究了经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险对行业波动性的不同影响,区分了好的波动性反应和坏的波动性反应。我们发现,在这些行业中,经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险之间存在非对称关系,与地缘政治风险相比,经济政策不确定性对行业波动性的影响通常更大。在 2010 年代以来的正常情况下,地缘政治风险对特定行业波动率的影响相对较小。然而,在某些危机时期,经济政策的不确定性和地缘政治风险都对多个行业产生了重大影响,其中地缘政治风险表现出短期效应。这些发现对投资者和政策制定者都有重要意义。投资者可以利用对政策不确定性和地缘政治风险的洞察力来把握时机,而政策制定者则可以识别易受影响的行业。
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引用次数: 0
Do cultural differences affect the share price puzzle? 文化差异会影响股价之谜吗?
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100873

We examine the impact of cultural differences on nominal share prices across 63 countries from 2002 to 2018. Using institutional and catering theories, we assess how cultural dimensions—including World Governance Indicators (WGI), legal systems, religious influences, and GLOBE dimensions—affect the spatial heterogeneity of share price levels. Our findings indicate that share prices are higher in countries with common law systems and comprehensive information reporting, as these environments tend to attract institutional investors. Conversely, cultural traits emphasizing altruistic values correspond with lower share prices, reflecting the preferences of individual investors.

我们研究了 2002 年至 2018 年间 63 个国家的文化差异对名义股价的影响。利用制度和餐饮理论,我们评估了文化维度--包括世界治理指标(WGI)、法律制度、宗教影响和全球经济展望维度--如何影响股价水平的空间异质性。我们的研究结果表明,在普通法体系和信息报告全面的国家,股价较高,因为这些环境倾向于吸引机构投资者。相反,强调利他主义价值观的文化特征与较低的股价相对应,反映了个人投资者的偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme weather exposure and corporate carbon emissions management: Evidence from forty countries 极端天气风险与企业碳排放管理:来自四十个国家的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100872

Utilizing survey data for firms from 40 countries, we explore the impact of extreme weather exposure on corporate carbon emissions management. Our findings indicate that firms manage their carbon emissions better if they have suffered losses due to extreme weather events. These results persist after considering endogeneity concerns, including placebo tests, the Heckman two-stage method, propensity score matching, the instrumental variables approach, and other robustness tests. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that this impact is more pronounced for firms located in developed countries and in countries with superior climate protection and lower levels of carbon emissions. Furthermore, the effect of extreme weather exposure is more significant for firms with foreign ownership and political connections and those subject to an energy tax. Finally, improved management of carbon emissions accompanied by extreme weather exposure can lead to increased corporate capacity utilization and reduced production costs.

我们利用对 40 个国家企业的调查数据,探讨了极端天气对企业碳排放管理的影响。我们的研究结果表明,如果企业在极端天气事件中遭受了损失,那么它们会更好地管理碳排放。在考虑了内生性问题(包括安慰剂测试、赫克曼两阶段法、倾向得分匹配、工具变量法和其他稳健性测试)后,这些结果依然存在。横截面分析表明,这种影响对发达国家以及气候保护较好、碳排放水平较低的国家的企业更为明显。此外,极端天气对拥有外资所有权和政治关系的企业以及那些征收能源税的企业的影响更为显著。最后,在极端天气影响下改善碳排放管理可提高企业产能利用率,降低生产成本。
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引用次数: 0
Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress 全球、地方还是全球?解读地缘政治风险与金融压力的相互作用
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100871

Since the start of the previous decade, regionalization of trade and investment flows has led to complex coupling in local (country-level) and global risks. To-date, little is known about how global uncertainty interacts with local uncertainty across the financial systems. Our study investigates the nexus between global and country-specific Geopolitical Risks (GPRs) and financial stress index (FSI) in five highly-open, large developed economies. We employ the cross-quantilogram and cross-spectral quantile coherency approaches on weekly data over 2000–2022 to show heterogeneous dependency of local and global geopolitical uncertainty on the financial stress conditions. Specifically, our results show that in the U.S. and the UK dependency of local and global geopolitical uncertainty on the financial stress conditions is influenced by the varying market conditions. In contrast, Canadian FSI is intensified by both global and country-level geopolitical risks, whereas German and French financial systems exhibit significant resilience to the global and local geopolitical shocks. Hence, the latter markets show hedging properties vis-a-vis global geopolitical risks.

自上一个十年开始,贸易和投资流动的区域化导致了地方(国家层面)和全球风险的复杂耦合。迄今为止,人们对全球不确定性如何与整个金融体系中的地方不确定性相互作用知之甚少。我们的研究调查了五个高度开放的大型发达经济体的全球和特定国家地缘政治风险(GPRs)与金融压力指数(FSI)之间的关系。我们对 2000-2022 年期间的每周数据采用了交叉量纲图和交叉谱量纲一致性方法,以显示本地和全球地缘政治不确定性对金融压力状况的异质性依赖。具体而言,我们的研究结果表明,在美国和英国,本地和全球地缘政治不确定性对金融压力状况的依赖性受到不同市场条件的影响。与此相反,加拿大的金融风险指数受到全球和国家层面地缘政治风险的影响而加剧,而德国和法国的金融体系则对全球和地方地缘政治冲击表现出显著的抗冲击能力。因此,后者的市场显示出对全球地缘政治风险的对冲特性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of climate risk on corporate innovation: An international comparison 气候风险对企业创新的影响:国际比较
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100870
Qu Deng , Garland Huang , Donghui Li , Shijie Yang

Employing an international sample of 10,012 firms across 62 economies spanning 2005–2017, we show that climate risk is negatively associated with corporate innovation activities. This finding is consistent with increased managerial risk aversion when managers perceive higher climate risk, leading to lower innovativeness. Through risk-buffering mechanisms, the negative association is weaker when firms are not subject to financial constraints, when corporate governance is stronger, and when the economy is more developed. Through risk-sharing mechanisms, better equity market development, greater trade openness, and greater insurance coverage can help mitigate the negative impact of climate risk on corporate innovation. Further analyses suggest that firms respond to climate change by inventing more green patents. Our study has implications for how to motivate corporate innovation in high-climate-risk economies.

通过对 2005-2017 年间 62 个经济体 10,012 家企业的国际样本进行分析,我们发现气候风险与企业创新活动呈负相关。当管理者认为气候风险较高时,管理者的风险规避就会增加,从而导致创新能力下降。通过风险缓冲机制,当企业不受财务约束、公司治理较强以及经济较发达时,负相关关系较弱。通过风险分担机制,更好的股票市场发展、更大的贸易开放度和更高的保险覆盖率有助于减轻气候风险对企业创新的负面影响。进一步的分析表明,企业会通过发明更多的绿色专利来应对气候变化。我们的研究对如何激励高气候风险经济体的企业创新具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Do foreign investors make firms more transparent? Evidence from Korea 外国投资者会使公司更加透明吗?韩国的证据
IF 4.2 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100860
Junyong Lee , Frederick Dongchuhl Oh

In this study, we investigate whether foreign equity participation enhances the level of transparency in Korean listed firms’ accounting information. Using panel data on the Korean listed firms during the 1999–2019 period, we find that foreign ownership has a positive effect on the accounting transparency of firms. This suggests that foreign investors effectively monitor the earnings management activities of a firm and contribute to increasing the quality of accounting information. In addition, this positive impact of foreign equity ownership is more pronounced in non-chaebol firms than in chaebols. We further show that foreign investors reinforce the effect of changes in accounting systems on the transparency of Korean firms. Finally, firms with enhanced transparency by foreign investors perform better in the future. Overall, our study highlights the importance of foreign investors for enhancing accounting transparency in the Korean stock market. (JEL F21, F65, G15, G30, M40)

在本研究中,我们探讨了外资参股是否会提高韩国上市公司会计信息的透明度水平。利用 1999-2019 年期间韩国上市公司的面板数据,我们发现外资持股对公司会计透明度有积极影响。这表明外国投资者能有效监督企业的收益管理活动,有助于提高会计信息的质量。此外,外资持股对非财阀企业的积极影响比财阀企业更为明显。我们进一步表明,外国投资者加强了会计制度变革对韩国企业透明度的影响。最后,外国投资者提高了透明度的企业在未来会有更好的表现。总之,我们的研究强调了外国投资者对提高韩国股票市场会计透明度的重要性。(JEL F21, F65, G15, G30, M40)
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the complexities of GCC real state markets: An analysis of interlinkages amidst shocks and oil effects 驾驭海湾合作委员会房地产市场的复杂性:冲击和石油效应下的相互联系分析
IF 4.2 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100859
Alanoud Hamad Fetais, Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Ruslan Nagayev

The study investigates the interconnectedness of GCC real estate markets using wavelet coherence analysis of daily data from 2013 to 2023 and analyzes the impact of various external shocks (political, economic, regulatory, and pandemic) and oil dependence on these dynamics. Despite shared cultural ties and energy intensity, findings reveal primarily weak to moderate linkages, with increased coherence observed during significant events. These linkages exhibit temporal variability, characterized by short-term spikes, loose medium-term correlations, and evolving long-term relationships. Isolating the effect of oil prices yielded limited impact, suggesting the influence of country-specific factors. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders, aiding informed decision-making during sensitive periods and fostering a deeper understanding of international finance and investments.

本研究利用 2013 年至 2023 年每日数据的小波相干性分析,研究了海湾合作委员会房地产市场的相互关联性,并分析了各种外部冲击(政治、经济、监管和流行病)和石油依赖性对这些动态的影响。尽管存在共同的文化纽带和能源密集度,但研究结果表明它们之间的联系主要是微弱到中等程度,在重大事件发生时一致性会增强。这些联系表现出时间上的可变性,其特点是短期峰值、松散的中期相关性和不断发展的长期关系。将石油价格的影响隔离开来的结果影响有限,这表明存在国别因素的影响。这项研究为政策制定者、投资者和利益相关者提供了宝贵的见解,有助于在敏感时期做出明智的决策,并加深对国际金融和投资的理解。
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引用次数: 0
When local and foreign investors meet the Chinese government's risk perception about COVID-19 当本地和外国投资者遇到中国政府对 COVID-19 的风险认知时
IF 4.2 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100858
Chao Deng , Shiyu Li , Yun Hong

This paper explores the nuanced extreme market responses exhibited by segmented domestic and foreign investors in reaction to state media coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic in China’s A-share and H-share markets. Our findings indicate that an extreme increase (or decrease) in this unexpected attention is likely to lead to an extreme increase (or decrease) in stock prices. Domestic investors show increased sensitivity to an abnormal decrease in state media attention, whereas foreign investors are more responsive to an increase in this attention. An extreme unexpected decline in state media coverage of the pandemic significantly influences extreme fluctuations in the A-share market’s trading volume. In contrast, an abnormal increase in state media coverage of the pandemic tends to extremely decrease the H-share market’s trading volume. In the early panic phase, domestic (foreign) investors tend to reach a consensus more on abnormal declines (increases) in state media reports on the pandemic.

本文探讨了中国 A 股和 H 股市场中,细分的国内外投资者对国家媒体报道 COVID-19 大流行病所表现出的细微极端市场反应。我们的研究结果表明,这种意外关注的极端增加(或减少)很可能导致股票价格的极端增加(或减少)。国内投资者对国家媒体关注度的异常下降表现出更高的敏感性,而外国投资者则对这种关注度的增加反应更为灵敏。国家媒体对大流行病报道的极端意外减少会显著影响 A 股市场交易量的极端波动。相反,国家媒体对大流行病报道的异常增加往往会导致 H 股市场交易量的极度下降。在恐慌初期,国内(国外)投资者更倾向于就国家媒体对疫情报道的异常减少(增加)达成共识。
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引用次数: 0
CEOs’ financial work experience and firms’ outbound investments 首席执行官的金融工作经验与企业对外投资
IF 4.2 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100848
Xiaoming Zeng , Hao Chen , Yanzhao Yin , Youjin Liu

Outbound investment refers to the act of investing by enterprises or individuals in regions or countries outside their home country. We explore the impact of CEO financial work experience on the outbound investments of Chinese A-share listed firms. The results demonstrate a significant, positive correlation between CEO financial work experience and the scale of outbound investments, particularly for nonbank financial work experience. We also reveal that the intermediary mechanism of CEO financial work experience is due to an increase in the proportion of financial assets and the easing of financing constraints, thereby promoting outbound investments. Moreover, the research shows that the effect of CEO financial work experience varies by ownership type and scale, with state-owned and large-scale firms receiving greater benefits.

对外投资是指企业或个人对母国以外的地区或国家进行投资的行为。我们探讨了CEO金融工作经验对中国A股上市公司对外投资的影响。结果表明,CEO的金融工作经验与对外投资规模之间存在明显的正相关关系,尤其是非银行金融工作经验。我们还发现,CEO金融工作经验的中介机制是由于金融资产比重的增加和融资约束的缓解,从而促进了对外投资。此外,研究还表明,CEO 金融工作经验的影响因所有制类型和规模而异,国有企业和大型企业受益更大。
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引用次数: 0
Nonlinear effects of financial openness on financial development in ASEAN 金融开放对东盟金融发展的非线性影响
IF 4.2 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100846
Hyun-Jung Nam , Jeongseok Bang , Doojin Ryu

This study examines the nonlinear effects of financial openness on financial development in the representative ASEAN member states: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It reveals that with a low (high) level of financial openness, the assets and liabilities of foreign direct investment increase (decrease) equity market capitalization and the financial development, institution, and market indices. We identify a threshold of financial openness where its positive impact begins to diminish; beyond this point, excessive financial openness may become detrimental to financial development. By reassessing the risks associated with financial openness after the Asian financial crisis, we can understand that the potential toxicity amplified by financial openness may pose threats to financial development.

本研究探讨了金融开放对东盟代表性成员国金融发展的非线性影响:印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国。研究表明,在金融开放度较低(较高)的情况下,外国直接投资的资产和负债会增加(减少)股票市值以及金融发展、机构和市场指数。我们确定了金融开放的临界点,在这个临界点上,金融开放的积极影响开始减弱;超过这个临界点,过度的金融开放可能会不利于金融发展。通过在亚洲金融危机后重新评估与金融开放相关的风险,我们可以理解金融开放所放大的潜在毒性可能会对金融发展构成威胁。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Multinational Financial Management
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