Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics

IF 6.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2019-08-23 DOI:10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-080218-030333
Adrien Bouguen, Yue-sheng Huang, M. Kremer, E. Miguel
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引用次数: 28

Abstract

We assess evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data; improved participant tracking methods; alternative research designs; and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.
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利用随机对照试验估算发展经济学中的长期影响
我们评估了贫困国家长期经济生产力和生活水平的随机对照试验的证据。我们首先记录了几项研究估计了巨大的积极长期影响,但从长远来看,对现有的随机对照试验进行评估的相对较少。接下来,我们提供了对现有随机对照试验的系统调查的证据,重点是现金转移和儿童健康计划,并表明可以现实地评估一个有意义的子集的长期影响。我们讨论了如何弥合不断增长的开发随机对照试验数量与迄今为止跟进的有限数量之间的差距,包括通过新的面板(纵向)数据;改进参与者跟踪方法;替代研究设计;以及访问管理、遥感和手机数据。我们得出的结论是,大约自2000年以来,发展经济学随机对照试验的兴起为产生关于生活水平长期驱动因素的高质量证据提供了一个新的机会。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.70
自引率
3.60%
发文量
34
期刊介绍: The Annual Review of Economics covers significant developments in the field of economics, including macroeconomics and money; microeconomics, including economic psychology; international economics; public finance; health economics; education; economic growth and technological change; economic development; social economics, including culture, institutions, social interaction, and networks; game theory, political economy, and social choice; and more.
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