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Global Risk, Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, and Emerging Market Vulnerabilities 全球风险、非银行金融中介和新兴市场脆弱性
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082222-074901
Anusha Chari
Over the last two decades, the unprecedented increase in non-bank financial intermediation, particularly the rise of open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, accounts for nearly half of the external financing flows to emerging markets, exceeding cross-border lending by global banks. Evidence suggests that investment fund flows enhance risk sharing across borders and provide emerging markets access to more diverse forms of financing. However, a growing body of evidence also indicates that investment funds are inherently more vulnerable to liquidity and redemption risks during periods of global financial market stress, increasing the volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. Benchmark-driven investments, namely passive funds, appear particularly sensitive to global risk shocks, such as tightening US dollar funding conditions, compared to their active fund counterparts. The procyclicality of investment fund flows to emerging markets during times of global stress poses financial stability concerns, with implications for the role of macroprudential policy.
过去20年,非银行金融中介空前增长,尤其是开放式共同基金和交易所交易基金(etf)的兴起,占新兴市场外部融资流量的近一半,超过了全球银行的跨境贷款。有证据表明,投资资金流动加强了跨境风险分担,并为新兴市场提供了获得更多样化融资形式的途径。然而,越来越多的证据也表明,在全球金融市场承压期间,投资基金本质上更容易受到流动性和赎回风险的影响,这加大了流向新兴市场的资本的波动性。与主动型基金相比,基准驱动型投资,即被动型基金,似乎对全球风险冲击尤其敏感,比如美元融资条件收紧。在全球紧张时期,投资资金流向新兴市场的顺周期性引发了对金融稳定的担忧,并对宏观审慎政策的作用产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
Micro Propagation and Macro Aggregation 微观传播和宏观聚合
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082322-012833
David Baqaee, Elisa Rubbo
This article reviews a framework for studying the aggregation and propagation of microeconomic shocks in general equilibrium. We discuss the determinants of aggregate measures of real economic activity, like real GDP, real domestic absorption, and aggregate productivity in both efficient and inefficient environments. We also discuss how shocks from one set of producers are transmitted to other producers through prices and quantities. The framework we provide is amenable to generalization and can be used to study any collection of producers ranging from one isolated producer to an industry consisting of heterogeneous producers to an entire economy. We conclude with a brief survey of some of the applied questions that can be addressed using the analytical tools presented in this review and avenues for future work.
本文综述了一般均衡下微观经济冲击聚集和传播的研究框架。我们讨论了实际经济活动总量指标的决定因素,如实际GDP、实际国内吸收量以及高效和低效环境下的总生产率。我们还讨论了一组生产者的冲击是如何通过价格和数量传递给其他生产者的。我们提供的框架易于推广,可用于研究任何生产者集合,从一个孤立的生产者到由异质生产者组成的行业,再到整个经济。最后,我们对一些应用问题进行了简要的调查,这些问题可以使用本综述中提出的分析工具和未来工作的途径来解决。
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引用次数: 1
Advances in the Economic Theory of Cultural Transmission 文化传播经济学理论研究进展
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-090622-100258
Alberto Bisin, Thierry Verdier
In this article we survey recent advances in the economic theory of cultural transmission. We highlight three main themes on which the literature has made great progress in the last 10 years: the domain of traits subject to cultural transmission; the microfoundations for the technology of transmission; and feedback effects between culture, institutions, and various socioeconomic environments. We conclude by suggesting interesting areas for future research.
本文综述了文化传播经济学理论的最新进展。我们强调了近十年来文学取得重大进展的三个主要主题:文化传播的特征领域;传播技术的微观基础;以及文化、制度和各种社会经济环境之间的反馈效应。最后,我们提出了未来研究的有趣领域。
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引用次数: 3
The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets 非线性预算集的计量经济学
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082222-065323
Sören Blomquist, Jerry A. Hausman, Whitney K. Newey
This article surveys the development of nonparametric models and methods for estimation of choice models with nonlinear budget sets. The discussion focuses on the budget set regression, that is, the conditional expectation of a choice variable given the budget set. Utility maximization in a nonparametric model with general heterogeneity reduces the curse of dimensionality in this regression. Empirical results using this regression are different from maximum likelihood and give informative inference. The article also considers the information provided by kink probabilities for nonparametric utility with general heterogeneity. Instrumental variable estimation and the evidence it provides of heterogeneity in preferences are also discussed.
本文综述了非参数模型的发展和非线性预算集选择模型的估计方法。讨论的重点是预算集回归,即给定预算集的选择变量的条件期望。具有一般异质性的非参数模型中的效用最大化减少了回归中的维数诅咒。使用这种回归的经验结果与最大似然不同,并给出了信息推断。本文还考虑了一般异质性的非参数效用的扭结概率所提供的信息。工具变量估计和它提供的证据异质性的偏好也进行了讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Tertiarization Like China 像中国那样的三级化
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-071122-030026
Xilu Chen, Guangyu Pei, Zheng Song, Fabrizio Zilibotti
This article documents a rapid shift toward services (tertiarization) of the Chinese economy since 2005, as evidenced by the significant increase in both employment and value-added shares of the service sector. Notably, our analysis reveals that a variety of measures of productivity growth have been greater in the service sector than in the manufacturing sector. Firm-level measures of dynamism corroborate this ongoing tertiarization trend, which is not limited to services used as inputs to industrial production but extends also to consumer services. These findings are robust across different growth accounting methodologies, including a recently proposed method by Fan et al. (2023) that addresses challenges associated with the measurement of quality improvements in service industries.
本文记录了自2005年以来中国经济向服务业(三化)的快速转变,服务业的就业和增值份额的显著增长证明了这一点。值得注意的是,我们的分析显示,服务业的各种生产率增长指标都高于制造业。公司一级的动态措施证实了这种正在进行的第三化趋势,这种趋势不仅限于作为工业生产投入的服务,而且还扩展到消费者服务。这些发现在不同的增长会计方法中都是稳健的,包括Fan等人(2023)最近提出的一种方法,该方法解决了与服务业质量改进测量相关的挑战。
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引用次数: 1
The Portfolio of Economic Policies Needed to Fight Climate Change 应对气候变化所需的经济政策组合
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-015113
Olivier Blanchard, Christian Gollier, Jean Tirole
Climate change poses an existential threat. Theoretical and empirical research suggest that carbon pricing and green R&D support are the right tools, but their implementation can be improved. Other policies, such as standards, bans, and targeted subsidies, also all have a role to play, but they have often been incoherent, and their implementation is delicate.
气候变化构成了生存威胁。理论和实证研究表明,碳定价和绿色研发支持是正确的工具,但它们的实施还有待改进。其他政策,如标准、禁令和有针对性的补贴,也都可以发挥作用,但它们往往是不连贯的,实施起来也很微妙。
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引用次数: 2
Parenting Promotes Social Mobility Within and Across Generations 养育子女促进了几代人和几代人之间的社会流动性
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-021423-031905
Jorge Luis García, James J. Heckman
This article compares early childhood enrichment programs that promote social mobility for disadvantaged children within and across generations. Instead of conducting a standard meta-analysis, we present a harmonized primary data analysis of programs that shape current policy. Our analysis is a template for rigorous syntheses and comparisons across programs. We analyze new long-run life-cycle data collected for iconic programs when participants are middle-aged and their children are in their twenties. The iconic programs are omnibus in nature and offer many services to children and their parents. We compare them with relatively low-cost, more focused home-visiting programs. Participants in programs that enrich home environments grow up with better skills, jobs, earnings, marital stability, and health, as well as reduced participation in crime. The long-run monetized gains are substantially greater than the costs of the iconic programs. A study of focused home-visiting programs that target parents enables us to isolate a crucial component of successful programs: They activate and promote the parenting skills of child caregivers. The home-visiting programs we analyze produce outcomes comparable to those of the iconic omnibus programs. National implementation of the programs with long-run follow-up that we analyze would substantially shrink the overall Black-White earnings gap in the United States.
这篇文章比较了早期儿童丰富计划,促进社会流动性的弱势儿童内和跨代。我们没有进行标准的元分析,而是对影响当前政策的项目进行了统一的原始数据分析。我们的分析是跨项目严格综合和比较的模板。我们分析了从标志性项目中收集的新的长期生命周期数据,这些项目的参与者是中年人,他们的孩子是20多岁。这些标志性的项目本质上是综合性的,为儿童和他们的父母提供了许多服务。我们将它们与相对低成本、更有针对性的家访项目进行比较。参与丰富家庭环境项目的人在成长过程中拥有更好的技能、工作、收入、婚姻稳定和健康,并减少了犯罪的参与。长期的货币化收益远远大于标志性项目的成本。一项针对父母的重点家访项目的研究使我们能够分离出成功项目的一个关键组成部分:它们激活并提高了儿童照顾者的养育技能。我们分析的家访项目产生的结果与那些标志性的综合项目相当。我们分析,在全国范围内实施这些项目并进行长期跟踪,将大大缩小美国黑人与白人的总体收入差距。
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引用次数: 3
The Economics of Digital Privacy 数字隐私经济学
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082322-014346
Avi Goldfarb, Verina F. Que
There has been increasing attention to privacy in the media and in regulatory discussions. This is a consequence of the increased usefulness of digital data. The literature has emphasized the benefits and costs of digital data flows to consumers and firms. The benefits arise in the form of data-driven innovation, higher-quality products and services that match consumer needs, and increased profits. The costs relate to the intrinsic and instrumental values of privacy. Under standard economic assumptions, this framing of a cost-benefit trade-off might suggest little role for regulation beyond ensuring consumers are appropriately informed in a robust competitive environment. The empirical literature thus far has focused on this direct cost-benefit assessment, examining how privacy regulations have affected various market outcomes. However, an increasing body of theory work emphasizes externalities related to data flows. These externalities, both positive and negative, suggest benefits to the targeted regulation of digital privacy.
在媒体和监管讨论中,人们越来越关注隐私问题。这是数字数据越来越有用的结果。文献强调了数字数据流对消费者和企业的收益和成本。这些好处体现在数据驱动的创新、符合消费者需求的更高质量的产品和服务,以及利润的增加。这些成本与隐私的内在价值和工具价值有关。在标准的经济假设下,这种成本效益权衡的框架可能表明,除了确保消费者在一个强劲的竞争环境中获得适当的信息外,监管几乎没有什么作用。迄今为止,实证文献主要集中在这种直接的成本效益评估上,研究隐私监管如何影响各种市场结果。然而,越来越多的理论工作强调与数据流相关的外部性。这些正面和负面的外部性都表明,对数字隐私进行有针对性的监管是有益的。
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引用次数: 1
Data and Markets 数据与市场
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082322-023244
Maryam Farboodi, Laura Veldkamp
Big data is changing every corner of economics and finance. The largest firms in the US economy are valued chiefly for their data. Yet, these data are largely excluded from macroeconomic and finance research. We review work and relevant tools for measuring economic activity, market power, data markets, and the role of data in financial markets. We also highlight areas where future work is needed.
大数据正在改变经济和金融的每一个角落。美国经济中最大的几家公司的价值主要取决于它们的数据。然而,这些数据在很大程度上被排除在宏观经济和金融研究之外。我们回顾了衡量经济活动、市场力量、数据市场和数据在金融市场中的作用的工作和相关工具。我们还强调了未来需要开展工作的领域。
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引用次数: 0
New Thinking in Austrian Economics 奥地利经济学的新思维
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082322-021346
Peter J. Boettke, Christopher J. Coyne
This review discusses the unique features of Austrian economics and some of the recent contributions of this school of thought. We organize these contributions in different research “buckets” in the hope that this will be a useful guide to readers while demonstrating the ongoing relevance of the contemporary Austrian school of economics for advancing scientific discourse. The research buckets discussed include robust political economy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, entrepreneurship and the market process, development economics, behavioral economics, governance, social economy, collective action challenges related to natural disaster recovery and infectious disease, and war and defense.
这篇评论讨论了奥地利学派经济学的独特特征以及该学派最近的一些贡献。我们将这些贡献组织在不同的研究“桶”中,希望这将成为读者的有用指南,同时展示当代奥地利经济学派对推进科学话语的持续相关性。讨论的研究领域包括强大的政治经济学、宏观经济学、货币经济学、企业家精神和市场过程、发展经济学、行为经济学、治理、社会经济学、与自然灾害恢复和传染病有关的集体行动挑战,以及战争和国防。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Annual Review of Economics
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