Learning from and Responding to Statistical Criticism

A. Gelman
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Abstract

Irwin Bross’s article, “Statistical Criticism,” gives advice that is surprisingly current, given that it appeared in the journal Cancer nearly sixty years ago. Indeed, the only obviously dated aspects of this paper are the use of the generic male pronoun and the sense that it was still an open question whether cigarette smoking caused lung cancer. In his article, Bross acts a critic of criticism, expressing support for the general form but recommending that critics go beyond hit-and-run, dogmatism, speculation, and tunnel vision. This all seems reasonable to me, but I think criticisms can also be taken at face value. If I publish a paper and someone replies with a flawed criticism, I still should be able to respond to its specifics. Indeed, there have been times when my own work has been much improved by criticism that was itself blinkered but which still revealed important and fixable flaws in my published work. I would go further and argue that nearly all criticism has value. Again, I’ll place myself in the position of the researcher whose work is being slammed. Consider the following sorts of statistical criticism, aligned in roughly decreasing order of quality:
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统计批评的借鉴与回应
Irwin Bross的文章《统计批评》给出了令人惊讶的最新建议,因为它在近60年前就出现在了《癌症》杂志上。事实上,这篇论文唯一明显过时的方面是通用男性代词的使用,以及吸烟是否导致癌症仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。在他的文章中,布罗斯充当了批评的批评者,表示支持一般形式,但建议批评者超越肇事逃逸、教条主义、猜测和狭隘的眼光。在我看来,这一切都是合理的,但我认为批评也可以从表面上看。如果我发表了一篇论文,有人回复了有缺陷的批评,我仍然应该能够回应它的细节。事实上,有时我自己的作品因批评而得到了很大的改进,这些批评本身是盲目的,但仍然揭示了我出版作品中重要的、可修复的缺陷。我会更进一步地说,几乎所有的批评都有价值。再一次,我将把自己放在研究人员的位置上,他的工作正在受到抨击。考虑以下几种统计批评,大致按质量递减顺序排列:
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