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Does matching introduce confounding or selection bias into the matched case-control design? 匹配病例对照设计是否会引入混杂或选择偏差?
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2024.a929114
Fei Wan, S. Sutcliffe, Jeffrey Zhang, Dylan Small
Abstract:The impact of matching on confounding control in case-control studies remains a subject of ongoing debate, with varying perspectives among researchers. While matching is a well-established method for controlling confounding in cohort studies, its effectiveness in mitigating confounding in case-control studies has long been questioned. Recent studies have determined that matching doesn't eliminate confounding but, instead, introduces a selection bias on top of the initial confounding, as indicated by causal diagram analysis. This conclusion suggests that the control of initial confounding through matching is either only partial or non-existent. However, this conclusion may not be accurate in exactly matched design because causal diagram cannot always reveal precisely the interplay between the initial confounding and the matching induced selection effect. In this paper, we employ analytical results in conjunction with causal diagrams to demonstrate that the cancellation of the initial confounding by the selection effect is complete in exact individually matched case-control studies. Nevertheless, this cancellation results in a residual selection effect that establishes a backdoor connection between the matching factors and the outcome in the matched design. Failure to adjust for this residual selection effect leads to biased estimates of the exposure effect. Furthermore, this backdoor connection causes matching factors to act like confounding factors in the matched case-control design, which complicates the interpretation of the bias introduced by matching in current literature.
摘要:在病例对照研究中,配对对混杂控制的影响一直是一个争论不休的话题,研究人员的观点也不尽相同。在队列研究中,配对是一种行之有效的混杂控制方法,但在病例对照研究中,配对在减少混杂方面的效果却一直受到质疑。最近的研究发现,匹配并不能消除混杂,反而会在初始混杂的基础上引入选择偏倚,因果图分析表明了这一点。这一结论表明,通过配对对初始混杂的控制要么只是部分的,要么根本不存在。然而,这一结论在完全匹配的设计中可能并不准确,因为因果图并不能总是精确地揭示初始混杂和匹配诱导的选择效应之间的相互作用。在本文中,我们将分析结果与因果图结合起来,证明在精确个体匹配的病例对照研究中,选择效应对初始混杂的抵消是完全的。然而,这种抵消会导致残余选择效应,在匹配设计中建立起匹配因素与结果之间的后门联系。如果不对这种残余选择效应进行调整,就会导致对暴露效应的估计出现偏差。此外,这种后门联系会使匹配因素在匹配病例对照设计中起到类似混杂因素的作用,从而使目前文献中对匹配所带来的偏差的解释变得复杂。
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引用次数: 0
Using a difference-in-difference control trial to test an intervention aimed at increasing the take-up of a welfare payment in New Zealand 使用差异中差异对照试验来测试旨在增加新西兰福利支付的干预措施
Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.a906626
David Rea, Dean R. Hyslop
Abstract:This paper describes a difference-in-difference control trial (DDCT) of an intervention designed to increase the take-up of an income support payment in the New Zealand welfare system. The intervention used a microsimulation model to identify potential claimants who were then contacted by either phone, email, or letter. The trial was designed as a DDCT because of ethical concerns associated with a fully randomized approach. The trial provided convincing evidence that the intervention would increase the take-up of the payment and a modified version was then implemented as an ongoing business process by the New Zealand Ministry of Social Development (MSD). The findings from the trial contribute to the literature about how best to increase the take-up of welfare payments. The study also demonstrates the value of using a difference-in-difference control trial.
摘要:本文描述了一项干预措施的差异控制试验(DDCT),旨在提高新西兰福利系统中收入支持支付的接受率。干预使用微观模拟模型来识别潜在的索赔人,然后通过电话、电子邮件或信件联系他们。由于与完全随机方法相关的伦理问题,该试验被设计为DDCT。该试验提供了令人信服的证据,表明干预措施将增加付款的接受率,新西兰社会发展部随后将修改后的版本作为一项持续的业务流程实施。该试验的结果为如何最好地提高福利金的使用率的文献做出了贡献。该研究还证明了使用差异对照试验的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Size-biased sensitivity analysis for matched pairs design to assess the impact of healthcare-associated infections 对配对设计进行大小偏倚敏感性分析,以评估医疗保健相关感染的影响
Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.a906628
David Watson
Abstract:Healthcare-associated infections are serious adverse events that occur during a hospital admission. Quantifying the impact of these infections on inpatient length of stay and cost has important policy implications due to the Hospital-Acquired Conditions Reduction Program in the United States. However, most studies on this topic are flawed because they do not account for when a healthcare-associated infection occurred during a hospital admission. Such an approach leads to selection bias because patients with longer hospital stays are more likely to experience an infection due to their increased exposure time. Time of infection is often not incorporated into the estimation strategy because this information is unknown, yet there are no methods that account for the selection bias in this scenario. To address this problem, we propose a sensitivity analysis for matched pairs designs for assessing the effect of healthcare-associated infections on length of stay and cost when time of infection is unknown. The approach models the probability of infection, or the assignment mechanism, as proportional to a power function of the uninfected length of stay, where the sensitivity parameter is the value of the power. The general idea is to incorporate the degree of exposure into the probability of an infection occurring. Under this size-biased assignment mechanism, we develop hypothesis tests under a sharp null hypothesis of constant multiplicative effects. The approach is demonstrated on a pediatric cohort of inpatient encounters and compared to benchmark estimates that properly account for time of infection. The results reaffirm the severe degree of bias when not accounting for time of infection and also show that the proposed sensitivity analysis captures the benchmark estimates for plausible and theoretically justified values of the sensitivity parameter.
摘要:医疗保健相关感染是在入院期间发生的严重不良事件。由于美国的医院获得性疾病减少计划,量化这些感染对住院时间和费用的影响具有重要的政策意义。然而,大多数关于这一主题的研究都有缺陷,因为它们没有说明住院期间何时发生与医疗保健相关的感染。这种方法会导致选择偏差,因为住院时间较长的患者因暴露时间增加而更有可能感染。感染时间通常不包含在估计策略中,因为这些信息是未知的,但在这种情况下,没有任何方法可以解释选择偏差。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了配对设计的敏感性分析,以评估在感染时间未知的情况下,医疗保健相关感染对住院时间和费用的影响。该方法将感染概率或分配机制建模为与未感染停留时间的幂函数成比例,其中敏感性参数是幂的值。一般的想法是将暴露程度纳入感染发生的概率中。在这种大小有偏的分配机制下,我们在常数乘法效应的尖锐零假设下进行假设检验。该方法在儿科住院患者队列中得到了验证,并与正确考虑感染时间的基准估计值进行了比较。结果重申了在不考虑感染时间的情况下的严重偏差程度,并表明所提出的敏感性分析捕捉了敏感性参数的合理和理论上合理值的基准估计。
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引用次数: 0
A Software Tutorial for Matching in Clustered Observational Studies 集群观测研究中的匹配软件教程
Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.a906624
Luke Keele, Matthew Lenard, Luke Miratrix, Lindsay Page
Abstract:Many interventions occur in settings where treatments are applied to groups. For example, a math intervention may be implemented for all students in some schools and withheld from students in other schools. When such treatments are non-randomly allocated, researchers can use statistical adjustment to make treated and control groups similar in terms of observed characteristics. Recent work in statistics has developed a form of matching, known as multilevel matching, that is designed for contexts where treatments are clustered. In this article, we provide a tutorial on how to analyze clustered treatment using multilevel matching. We use a real data application to explain the full set of steps for the analysis of a clustered observational study.
摘要:许多干预措施发生在治疗适用于群体的环境中。例如,数学干预可能对某些学校的所有学生实施,而对其他学校的学生不实施。当这些治疗是非随机分配时,研究人员可以使用统计调整使治疗组和对照组在观察到的特征方面相似。最近在统计学方面的工作已经发展出一种匹配形式,称为多层次匹配,它是为治疗聚集的环境而设计的。在本文中,我们提供了一个关于如何使用多级匹配分析聚类处理的教程。我们使用一个真实的数据应用程序来解释群集观察性研究分析的全套步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Doubly Robust Estimation of Average Treatment Effects on the Treated through Marginal Structural Models 通过边际结构模型的平均治疗效果的双稳健估计
Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0025
M. Schomaker, Philipp F. M. Baumann
Abstract:Some causal parameters are defined on subgroups of the observed data, such as the average treatment effect on the treated and variations thereof. We explain how such parameters can be defined through parameters in a marginal structural (working) model. We illustrate how existing software can be used for doubly robust effect estimation of those parameters. Our proposal for confidence interval estimation is based on the delta method. All concepts are illustrated by estimands and data from the data challenge of the 2022 American Causal Inference Conference.
摘要:在观测数据的子组上定义了一些因果参数,如平均治疗效应对被治疗者的影响及其变化。我们解释了如何通过边际结构(工作)模型中的参数来定义这些参数。我们说明了现有的软件如何用于这些参数的双鲁棒效应估计。我们提出的置信区间估计是基于delta方法的。所有概念都由来自2022年美国因果推理会议数据挑战的估计和数据来说明。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Methods Madness: Lessons Learned from the 2022 ACIC Competition to Estimate Health Policy Impacts 因果方法疯狂:从2022年ACIC竞赛中获得的经验教训,以评估卫生政策的影响
Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0023
Daniel Thal, M. Finucane
Abstract:Introducing novel causal estimators usually involves simulation studies run by the statistician developing the estimator, but this traditional approach can be fraught: simulation design is often favorable to the new method, unfavorable results might never be published, and comparison across estimators is difficult. The American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) data challenges offer an alternative. As organizers of the 2022 challenge, we generated thousands of data sets similar to real-world policy evaluations and baked in true causal impacts unknown to participants. Participating teams then competed on an even playing field, using their cutting-edge methods to estimate those effects. In total, 20 teams submitted results from 58 estimators that used a range of approaches. We found several important factors driving performance that are not commonly used in business-as-usual applied policy evaluations, pointing to ways future evaluations could achieve more precise and nuanced estimates of policy impacts. Top-performing methods used flexible modeling of outcome-covariate and outcome-participation relationships as well as regularization of subgroup estimates. Furthermore, we found that model-based uncertainty intervals tended to outperform bootstrap-based ones. Lastly, and counter to our expectations, we found that analyzing large-n patient-level data does not improve performance relative to analyzing smaller-n data aggregated to the primary care practice level, given that in our simulated data sets practices (not individual patients) decided whether to join the intervention. Ultimately, we hope this competition helped identify methods that are best suited for evaluating which social policies move the needle for the individuals and communities they serve.
摘要:引入新的因果估计量通常涉及由开发估计量的统计学家进行的模拟研究,但这种传统方法可能会令人担忧:模拟设计通常对新方法有利,不利的结果可能永远不会公布,并且估计量之间的比较很困难。美国因果推理会议(ACIC)的数据挑战提供了一种替代方案。作为2022年挑战赛的组织者,我们生成了数千个类似于现实世界政策评估的数据集,并烘焙出参与者未知的真实因果影响。参赛队伍随后在一个公平的场地上进行比赛,使用他们的尖端方法来估计这些影响。总共有20个小组提交了58个估计量的结果,这些估计量使用了一系列方法。我们发现了几个驱动绩效的重要因素,这些因素在照常应用的政策评估中并不常用,指出了未来评估可以实现对政策影响更精确、更细致的估计的方法。表现最好的方法使用了结果协变量和结果参与关系的灵活建模,以及子群估计的正则化。此外,我们发现基于模型的不确定性区间往往优于基于自举的区间。最后,与我们的预期相反,我们发现,与分析汇总到初级保健实践层面的小n数据相比,分析大n患者层面的数据并不能提高性能,因为在我们的模拟数据集中,实践(而不是个体患者)决定是否加入干预。最终,我们希望这场比赛有助于确定最适合评估哪些社会政策为他们所服务的个人和社区牵线搭桥的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Treatment Effect with Propensity Score Weighted Regression and Double Machine Learning 用倾向评分加权回归和双机器学习估计治疗效果
Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0028
Jun Xue, Wei Zhong Goh, Dana Rotz
Abstract:We applied propensity score weighted regression and double machine learning in the 2022 American Causal Inference Conference Data Challenge. Our double machine learning method achieved the second lowest overall RMSE among all official submissions, but performed less well on heterogeneous treatment effect estimation due to lack of regularization.
摘要:我们在2022年美国因果推理会议数据挑战赛中应用了倾向得分加权回归和双机器学习。我们的双机器学习方法在所有官方提交的报告中获得了第二低的总体RMSE,但由于缺乏正则化,在异构治疗效果估计上表现不佳。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Treatment Effects over Time with Causal Forests: An application to the ACIC 2022 Data Challenge 利用因果森林估算随时间推移的治疗效果:在ACIC 2022数据挑战中的应用
Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0026
Shu Wan, Guanghui Zhang
Abstract:In this paper, we present our winning modeling approach, DiConfounder, for the Atlantic Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) 2022 Data Science data challenge. Our method ranks 1st in RMSE and 5th in coverage among the 58 submissions. We propose a transformed outcome estimator by connecting the difference-in-difference and conditional average treatment effect estimation problems. Our comprehensive multistage pipeline encompasses feature engineering, missing value imputation, outcome and propensity score modeling, treatment effects modeling, and SATT and uncertainty estimations. Our model achieves remarkably accurate predictions, with an overall RMSE as low as 11 and 84.5% coverage. Further discussions explore various methods for constructing confidence intervals and analyzing the limitations of our approach under different data generating process settings. We provide evidence that the clustered data structure is the key to success. We also release the source code on GitHub for practitioners to adopt and adapt our methods.
摘要:在本文中,我们为大西洋因果推理会议(ACIC) 2022年数据科学数据挑战赛展示了我们的获奖建模方法DiConfounder。我们的方法在58篇投稿中RMSE排名第1,coverage排名第5。我们将差中差和条件平均治疗效果估计问题联系起来,提出了一个转化的结果估计器。我们的综合多阶段管道包括特征工程、缺失值估算、结果和倾向评分建模、治疗效果建模、SATT和不确定性估计。我们的模型实现了非常准确的预测,总体RMSE低至11,覆盖率为84.5%。进一步的讨论探讨了构建置信区间的各种方法,并分析了我们的方法在不同数据生成过程设置下的局限性。我们提供的证据表明,集群数据结构是成功的关键。我们还在GitHub上发布了源代码,供从业者采用和调整我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Inverse Probability Weighting Difference-in-Differences (IPWDID) 反向概率加权差值(IPWDID)
Pub Date : 2023-05-11 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0027
Yuqin Wei, M. Epland, Jingyuan Liu
Abstract:In this American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) 2022 challenge submission, the canonical difference-in-differences (DID) estimator has been used with inverse probability weighting (IPW) and strong simplifying assumptions to produce a benchmark model of the sample average treatment effect on the treated (SATT). Despite the restrictive assumptions and simple model, satisfactory performance in both point estimate and confidence intervals was observed, ranking in the top half of the competition.
摘要:在2022年美国因果推断会议(ACIC)挑战提交的文件中,标准差分(DID)估计器已与逆概率加权(IPW)和强简化假设一起使用,以生成样本平均治疗对被治疗者(SATT)影响的基准模型。尽管有限制性的假设和简单的模型,但在点估计和置信区间方面都观察到了令人满意的表现,在竞争中排名前半。
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引用次数: 0
lmtp: An R Package for Estimating the Causal Effects of Modified Treatment Policies lmtp:一个用于估计改良治疗政策因果影响的R包
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0019
Nicholas T Williams, I. Díaz
Abstract:We present the lmtp R package for causal inference from longitudinal observational or randomized studies. This package implements the estimators of Díaz et al. (2021) for estimating general non-parametric causal effects based on modified treatment policies. Modified treatment policies generalize static and dynamic interventions, making lmtp and all-purpose package for non-parametric causal inference in observational studies. The methods provided can be applied to both point-treatment and longitudinal settings, and can account for time-varying exposure, covariates, and right censoring thereby providing a very general tool for causal inference. Additionally, two of the provided estimators are based on flexible machine learning regression algorithms, and avoid bias due to parametric model misspecification while maintaining valid statistical inference.
摘要:我们提出了纵向观察或随机研究因果推理的lmtp R包。该软件包实现了Díaz等人(2021)的估计器,用于估计基于修改后的治疗政策的一般非参数因果效应。修改后的治疗政策概括了静态和动态干预措施,使ltp成为观察性研究中非参数因果推断的万能包。所提供的方法可以应用于点处理和纵向设置,并且可以解释时变暴露,协变量和右审查,从而为因果推理提供了一个非常通用的工具。此外,所提供的两个估计器基于灵活的机器学习回归算法,避免了由于参数模型错误规范而导致的偏差,同时保持有效的统计推断。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Observational studies
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