Assessing provincial coal reliance for just low-carbon transition in China

Abstract

This paper examines the coal reliance of all 31 provinces in China and assesses the potential for a just energy transition towards cleaner energy sources. The authors calculate a coal reliance index (CRI) for each province based on China statistical data. The CRI takes into account factors such as coal production, consumption, and import/export, as well as GDP, population, and gender differences in mining employment. The authors highlight the importance of considering the varying degrees of coal reliance among provinces in developing effective policies for a just energy transition. The findings suggest the provincial CRI has generally been decreasing across most provinces over the past 16 years. When looking at regional CRI rankings, the northwest region has the highest average CRI compared to other regions, while the northeast region has the lowest CRI, followed by the north, east, south central, and southwest regions. The gender CRI indicates that women in China are not benefiting as much as men from economic growth and development. The paper provides insights for policymakers seeking to achieve a more sustainable and just energy system in China.