Bayesian method for estimating Weibull parameters for wind resource assessment in a tropical region: a comparison between two-parameter and three-parameter Weibull distributions

Abstract

Abstract. The two-parameter Weibull distribution has garnered much attention in the assessment of wind energy potential. The estimation of the shape and scale parameters of the distribution has brought forth a successful tool for the wind energy industry. However, it may be inappropriate to use the two-parameter Weibull distribution to assess energy at every location, especially at sites where low wind speeds are frequent, such as in tropical regions. In this work, a robust technique for wind resource assessment using a Bayesian approach for estimating Weibull parameters is first proposed. Secondly, the wind resource assessment techniques using a two-parameter Weibull distribution and a three-parameter Weibull distribution, which is a generalized form of two-parameter Weibull distribution, are compared. Simulation studies confirm that the Bayesian approach seems a more robust technique for accurate estimation of Weibull parameters. The research is conducted using data from seven sites in the tropical region from 1∘ N of the Equator to 21∘ S of the Equator. Results reveal that a three-parameter Weibull distribution with a non-zero shift parameter is a better fit for the wind data with a higher percentage of low wind speeds (0–1 m s−1) and low skewness. However, wind data with a smaller percentage of low wind speeds and high skewness showed better results with a two-parameter distribution that is a special case of the three-parameter Weibull distribution with a zero shift parameter. The proposed distribution can be incorporated into commercial software like WAsP to improve the accuracy of wind resource assessments. The results also demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian approach and application of a three-parameter Weibull distribution are extremely useful for accurate estimation of wind power density.