PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI DOMESTIK BERAS DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Rice is one of the most important commodities in Indonesia since it is one of the staple foods.Therefore, it becomes one of Indonesian government concerns by setting a goal of 46,8 million tons of rice supply in 2024. Despite 29,67% of the population earns their living from agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, the domestic production of rice could not meet its demand many times. Hence, the forecasting of the production and domestic consumption of rice is needed to know whether the domestic production is able to meet the demand. In this study, the rice production and domestic consumption were forecasted using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method. The DES was chosen due to the pattern of the data shows the trends without seasonality. The accuracy of the forecasting was measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Durbin-Watson statistic test. The yielded forecasts showed that the production rate is lower than the domestic consumption’s so that it would not meet the demand. It was concluded that the DES suitable to be used to forecast production and domestic consumption of rice in Indonesia since its MAPE are 6,48% and 5,91%, respectively. Moreover, the Durbin-Watson statistic showed that there was no autocorrelations on the errors of both data.