A black box approach to fitting smooth models of mortality

Abstract

Actuaries have long been interested in the forecasting of mortality for the purpose of the pricing and reserving of pensions and annuities. Most models of mortality in age and year of death, and often year of birth, are not identifiable so actuaries worried about what constraints should be used to give sensible estimates of the age and year of death parameters, and, if required, the year of birth parameters. These parameters were then forecast with an ARIMA model to give the required forecasts of mortality. A recent article showed that, while the fitted parameters were not identifiable, both the fitted and forecast mortalities were. This result holds if the age term is smoothed with P-splines. The present article deals with generalized linear models with a rank deficient regression matrix. We have two aims. First, we investigate the effect that different constraints have on the estimated regression coefficients. We show that it is possible to fit the model under different constraints in R without imposing any explicit constraints. R does all the necessary booking-keeping ‘under the bonnet’. The estimated regression coefficients under a particular set of constraints can then be recovered from the invariant fitted values. We have a black box approach to fitting the model subject to any set of constraints.